Do you have the historic data (run up to 8th Nov) for Predictit? I have this http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner
Predictwise was calling ~90% for Hillary and 320ish in the college.
Predictwise was calling ~90% for Hillary and 320ish in the college.
PredictWise's mistake was that it assumed polling errors would not be correlated[1]. (He actually had a fight with Nate Silver over this.)
Nate Silver had, in advance, stated that polling errors would be correlated[2] (rightfully, as it turned out), which is part of why 538's model turned out to be closer to reality than PredictWise's.
The actual betting markets, which PredictWise was pulling data from, were in the range of 20-30% Trump. Much more bullish.
[1] http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/09/poll-aggregation-fight/
[2] http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-...