In the end he nails it without fully realizing it. The problem is that the iPhone is now everything for Apple. Having one single mega cash cow tends to result in the whole company organizing itself around that cash cow. Microsoft did it for Windows and Office and missed a generation or two of developers as a result.

This is why Apple is stagnating and only seems to care about phones and locking down that ecosystem. They are the new Nokia.

Of course Amazon and Google have their cash cows too, so they are not much different. Their home speakers are ways for them to more aggressively market and capture customer buying behavior. Personally I consider them deeply creepy for this reason and will not get one.

The true innovation is going to come from hungrier players: startups or older companies that are on the ropes like Apple once was. Microsoft is getting interesting again, and I'd also keep an eye on old PC vendors like Dell and HP or even old IBM. These companies now have nothing to lose.