Is everything you do and find important in life directly related to improving our ecosystem and eliminating nuclear stockpiles? Do you think it's ok to be interested, for example, in web development, but not in space colonization? Maybe instead of attempting to force artificial goals on human society, you should acknowledge the fact that people care about more things than your notion of "quality". Denying them those things in the name of some artificial pragmatism is exactly the opposite of pragmatism - it ignores the realities of human society, ignores the actual wishes of people, and replaces them with an artificial ideology.
I would much rather live in a world where some people care about clean energy and sustainability, others about colonizing space, others about mathematics, and others about art, etc., than in a world where the majority of those things are shunned because of arguments such as yours. The latter world is a far more miserable one, and a miserable reality isn't a solution to anything.
Colonists, on the other hand, must be efficient if they wish to exist for longer than a few weeks, and they're a small and smart enough of a group that maintaining efficiency isn't an issue. Efficiency is a way of life for them. If anything, extremely low waste yet modern lifestyles will get their start in planetary colonies and make their way back to earth, not vice versa.
Of course, my bet is that we will reach the point where we can sustain a planet before we run out of planets (assuming we colonize a planet).
My actual bet is that it's gg for humanity.
But if you're talking about terraforming, then if we could terraform another planet we could probably re-terraform earth itself.
The issue with climate change is that higher temperature means more energy and thus more extreme climate. Plus there's desertification but that is, to some extent, a different issue.
Space exploration and colonisation is important, but it's not an answer for the Earth's problems. It may lead to new technologies that will help on earth though - not least the requirement for sustainability.
There are certainly massive disadvantages, life support, ect, but there could be things like large amounts of plentiful fuel.
I will defer to The West Wing to explain: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yUHnERJ0zs
EDIT: this one has a bit more context: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2HzHSeV9v8
Yeah, yeah, but your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could that they didn't stop to think if they should. - Dr. Ian Malcolm.
Our focus should not be on whether we can do something. We should carefully consider why we are doing something and ensure we aren't acting in a self-destructive way.
Even if we were to pursue a massive space race, it'd only consume a relatively small fraction of humanity's industrial capability and resources as they exist today. In the context of a long-term terraforming effort, after a significant space-borne industry has been created, these sorts of binary comparisons become all the more laughable.
Lot of people assume magical science fairies will solve this via "terraforming" or some other science fiction only idea, but more likely space exploration will remain unmanned probes if just because we aren't going to send a generation of explorers to their deaths or eventual madness.
Do social and economic factors magically not apply to people who colonize the solar system? Seems to me you now have 2 problems.
Scale is the critical thing here - even small social change at scale is hard - examples are aplenty.
Your fallacy is the same as claiming that we should care more about car accidents than about terrorism, because car accidents kill more people, instead of realizing that the number of dead simply isn't the only thing people care about when considering threats of this kind.
It's also unclear to me why you choose to single out space colonization when the vast majority of what most people do on Earth has nothing to do with solving the problems you mention. If anything, working on enabling space colonization is far more beneficial to life on this planet than almost every other subject on HN.
Nuclear stockpiles serve as a deterrent to aggression; the fact that the US and Soviet Union did not have a conventional WWIII between 1945 and 1990 is because both sides (and England and France) had nuclear weapons that made conventional invasions untenable.
Getting rid of "nuclear stockpiles" is a terrible idea.
Unless you're a Dr. Strangelove hoping to eventually end up in the bunker with a lot of pre-selected women (or simply falsly believing that the accidents are totally impossible) I don't understand why you'd be against the reduction.
Given the real probabilities that something can go wrong, if we don't do something to prevent it, something will seriously do go wrong, relatively soon, it's a question of time, and there's not too much of it. Only with the intentionally limited amount of the nuclear weapons the humanity can survive such an event.
Thinking of weapons of mass destruction, that HAVE been used in the past, as some forms of keepers of the peace just doesn't sit right with me.
While there is an inherent danger in having weapons capable of leaving the Earth largely uninhabitable for humans there's also a very real danger that without them the last 70 years of unprecedented levels of peace ends.
I get the feeling that some people view space colonisation as a kind of Deus ex machina that will magically give us a fresh start, unbound by the mistakes of the past. They don't realise that the mistakes of the past are carried with us wherever we go since they live between our ears.
I'm all for basic science and reaching for frontiers, but as a species we are proving incapable of making the mental and social leaps that the next evolutionary steps require of us. Would love to be proven wrong. :-(
Right, if someone cares about something, they tend to talk about it. If they think it's important, they think it should be given priority over other things.
But then this is exactly what you're replying to and exactly what you're disagreeing with. As if somehow by saying, "I think other things are more important than colonizing space" stops anybody doing anything. The tyranny of someone with an opinion different from yours, voicing it.
Slapstick arguments don't help. The whole point is that none of the proposals offered in the comment above yours are even remotely "utopian". They're all pretty much common sense (or should be by now), actually.
- convince everyone on Earth to implement changes that are bad for them, like not eating animal-based foods, with only the promise of "maybe in 200 years your descendants, should your line not be extinct by then, will benefit" as compensation
- reorganise every single human settlement and/or social structure on Earth to put people closer to their workplaces
- implement a global wealth redistribution scheme that doesn't start with North Korea conquering the planet through nuclear war
- successfully convince every NWS to destroy their nukes and institute a worldwide ban on nuclear weaponry
Are easier than the engineering challenge of building a colony on Titan? If yes, please let me into whatever politics-free, single world government utopia you're living in.
Even if we assume that people are as self-centered as you portray them, eating meat is not necessarily good for you:
http://www.cancer.org/cancer/news/world-health-organization-...
> - reorganise every single human settlement and/or social structure on Earth to put people closer to their workplaces
Most of the world actually already lives like this. Yes, the urban sprawl of many American cities will have to go, but it can (and will) be done.
> - implement a global wealth redistribution scheme that doesn't start with North Korea conquering the planet through nuclear war
Such a system was implemented after WW2 (cf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Plan). Worked out pretty well.
> - successfully convince every NWS to destroy their nukes and institute a worldwide ban on nuclear weaponry
If we elect politicians who are more interested in cooperation than in sabre-rattling, and more interested in the problems of the people they represent than in the needs of the military-industrial complex, they will have few incentives for maintaining anything even remotely the size of the current stockpile. Great though it may be, we do not need an all-out ban on nuclear weapons to ensure our continued survival, only a (large) reduction in the size of the stockpiles. That not only makes sense from a survival perspective, but also economically.
> Are easier than the engineering challenge of building a colony on Titan? If yes, please let me into whatever politics-free, single world government utopia you're living in.
My lack of cynicism may be due to the fact that I live in Europe, where I can see more progress than stagnation in all of the areas you mention above. Given how close it was that a politician who advocated all of the above policies was elected as president of the USA, I think there is reason to be optimistic there as well.
Maybe the best argument for creating an off world colony is to give people somewhere to escape to from authoritarian ideologies like yours.
Global warming? Titan's atmosphere is literally not breathable, and the outside temperature is colder than any place on Earth.
Food scarcity? Nothing grows on Titan. If you're growing it indoors you might as well grow it in your underground bunker on Earth.
The only way in which a colony on Titan could be less dangerous than Earth is from other humans trying to kill you -- the argument basically turns into "Let's escape the assholes trying to kill us." Even then, it'd be easier to make an Atlantis underwater (or any number of less far-fetched ideas) than to get to Titan.
Never mind how elitist and utopian and short-sighted the "get to Titan to escape stupid people" argument is...
Titan has practically limitless amounts of fuel in the form of oceans of flowing hydrocarbons.
Titan should be though of as a resource, not necessarily as a sprawling multi-billion person supporting planet.
I only talked about the (meagre) utility of Titan as a life-raft in the foreseeable future because that's what this thread is about. I didn't argue against visiting or colonising it because that would have been off-topic.
Sure, but colonizing Titan will ensure that we develop the technologies we need to sustain the species under those conditions, rather than having to "do it live" when a nuclear war / asteroid impact / what have you happens.
It's not that Earth is a political utopia. It's that Titan is simply uninhabitable. Not just very difficult to colonize. Impossible.
There are millions of people who chose not to eat animals for different reasons (ethical, health, environmental). And this number is growing faster than ever before, as people become more educated about the issues with animal agriculture.
I don't know why you would classify it as "bad for you". It looks like you are projecting your opinions.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_by_country#Demog...
The two argument against colonization ia that we shouldn't colonize until we know how to avoid destroying it. Don't burn our lifeboat.
> stop eating animal-based foods
Good luck with that. Sad true is that people don't want to change their life style. If you ask them for solution they will tell you exactly the same thing as you wrote, but most of them will not implement any of this solutions in their life. They want to eat meat, they want to consume, look at global warming, everyone know what is happening and what do they do on their own to stop that? Looking at my friends, people around me I see everyone recognize the problems, talk about solutions but no one is really doing anything.
One could always go back to a life of eating meat once a week, riding bicycle to and from work, living in a developing country with broadband internet, electricity and clean water and thereby remove almost completely their carbon footprint, but who is in the mood for that, let's make life more innovative and even more comfortable than before, while telling ourselves these innovations are for the environment also! We eat organic and drive electric and pay $1000 a month for health insurance! Go us!
For instance, I've seen in my surroundings a disproportionate emphasis on recycling. Whatever happened to reducing and re-using? While recycling reduces our need to extract more resources, it still requires energy to transport to processing facilities and process.
The real issue is not cutting your shower time by 30 seconds, or turning off the tap when you brush your teeth (although both these waste resources). It's the rise of sprawl and the dependence on cars that makes our society unsustainable.
Driving a single mile releases roughly 1 pound of CO2 (assuming ~20mpg). Now multiply that by the 25.4 minute commute time [0] and the rising number of cars per household [1] to accommodate our poor suburban designs, and that equals a lot of carbon emissions.
But if the American responds to climate change by recycling, they'll be mislead that their efforts are actually helping. They are not. Recycling a Starbucks coffee cup will not cancel out the effect of driving an SUV 5 miles round-trip that you used to get there.
What we truly need is effective altruism, and a public service campaign that goes after the top 3 or so most destructive behaviors of Americans. Not whether we can design water bottles that have a "slim cap" design.
> Huge quantities of fossil fuels are burned daily just so hundreds of millions of Americans can go back and forth between two points 5 times a week. It doesn't make sense; cars can be useful for certain things, but regular and predictable commutes are best done with public transit. (http://www.treehugger.com/cars/average-commute-times-usa-int...)
[0] https://project.wnyc.org/commute-times-us/embed.html#5.00/42... [1] https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UJuMkdu2LWC6AavNsVuY-mHHjIE...
In places where public transit has dense enough coverage to make commute times reasonable, yes. But that's not most places where Americans are commuting.
Which is not to say it shouldn't be done, but bootstrapping a mass transit system is a long, slow process that involves throwing away a lot more than our existing cars & highways.
What if a significant fraction of the population doesn't want to live in such a concentrated environment?
It's not insurmountable (I'm sure that a better public transportation system could be implemented for more money), but almost everyone will make the same choice that I have until a more practical alternative comes along....but they won't want to pay for that alternative because they aren't using it.
Point to point service with built in ride consolidation (targeted at clustering the start and end points).
Plus the self-driving vehicles will eliminate gawker blocks and all of the other idiocy resulting from fallible humans driving.
Without the thing being electric it isn't the perfect solution (also can't do highway travel), but I feel like it's something not a lot of people consider for short, city/suburban commuting.
As the song goes, "mopeds are always broke, but they easy to fix".
A moped WILL break down on you and be underpowered. My grande with a 70cc kit, performance variator and multiple breakdowns tops out around 41mph.
If you are not interested in repairing bikes or paying for their repair (if even possible in your city), avoid mopeds.
I'd recommend a 125cc+ scooter though. Reliability, fuel efficiency, and a bit more power which can increase safety. They also have more storage.
Don't forget to add in the fixed cost of gear!
Can't argue with the gear part though, probably going to cost me as much as the bike did pre-repairs.
They make a lot more sense for suburban/city commutes where there is plenty of slow moving traffic to filter through at a comfortable 40-50 km/h.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
I lived in Germany for a few years. I was too young to drive at the time, but I remember that my parents were impressed by some of the behaviors taught there, and I've always wished that American driver education was less half-assed than it is.
I live in southern California, which has its own particular brand of insanity, when it comes to the roads.
It's fuel economy and power production sucks in large part because the motor uses a carburetor rather than fuel injection. At first I thought that was a benefit, in practice I can understand why every other bike maker uses fuel injection.
But hey, you can usually buy a brand new one for $5500. That's one benefit of them selling pretty much the same bike since 1987. Plus there's a huge aftermarket parts market.
The Prius gives me a pretty reliable 45 mpg (I drive the same road every day). If I really baby it, I can get closer to 50.
Sorry for the rambling, I've been really getting in to bikes since starting this project, hahah. I'll abstain from asking any more questions about the bike or Prius, thanks for taking the time to reply!
Definitely not once there is VR tech
I'd still have to go somewhere besides my home every day (hoping for a remote VR work office in walking distance), and some days I'd need to commute anyhow.
If we were to list what changes one can do in order to save the planet: 1) work at home, 2) bike everywhere that is human possible, 3) take the train in all other situation where possible, 4) eating/recycling/short shower/other minor aspects.
I consider the pursuit of nutritional sufficiency to be an inalienable human right. Attacking my ability to produce my own food, in whatever form I find desirable or convenient, is a sure way to undermine my consent to be governed.
I mean after a new ice age, a complete runaway greenhouse process, an episode waterworld, a complete thermonuclear mayhem, etc. etc. the ruined earth will still be easier to "re-colonize" than Titan or Mars.
If we need space suits to go outside on Earth because its +100 or -100 degrees C or there is radiation everywhere etc - we are still likely to have an environment that is friendlier than Mars/Titan. It's like he says in the article - if we are going to live in caves we might as well do it on Earth. Now - if we worry about our survival as a species then colonizing makes perfect sense. If we worry about destroying the planet, then I don't get it. We can't possibly destroy Earth to a point where it is less hospitable than Titan?
Compared to those, scientific advancements in terraforming are positively trivial.
Also, it would require massive resources to get enough people to a colony to make it worthwhile in the first place. Deciding to allocate those resources (and deciding who gets to go) would inherently be a highly politicized process.
Terraforming another planet is an engineering problem (of course, not only an engineering problem), and in the end it's something that in theory can be accomplished as long as we "work it out".
Changing the human nature however, is not trivial by any measure.
It's very hard for individuals to change, and even more so for groups and even more so for societies. There are even those that say change in a person is impossible.
Whereas an engineering problem can (probably) be solved regardless of whether humans change or not.
One could even argue that advancing our technology has helped us change as humans (for the better hopefully), but the other way around doesn't necessarily hold.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love for us to be able to realize the damage we are doing to this planet, whether or not we colonize other ones (ideally I'd like both). However improving our engineering skills seems much more likely than improving our nature does.
I hope you're right, and don't want to say that we're doomed. But look at the 1960's and '70s: the young people of that time were far more committed to a radically different life than the young people of today -- and were so on a much larger scale, with the sense of the immanent revolutionary overthrow of society being in the air.
While their dedication was not fruitless (bringing us the likes of environmentalism and feminism, both of which are very much in the mainstream today) we still wound up where we are today -- very far from their vision of a radically free, non-hierarchical, loving, and "back to the earth" society.
The changes that young people seek aren't always necessarily positive either. Just because it's different doesn't mean it's good. Witness Pol Pot, China's Cultural Revolution, the Hitler Youth, etc. Radical changes are often very bloody, and result in a system worse than what it replaced.
I only meant to say that the social movements that youth were involved in during the 60's and 70's were far more widespread (and much more radical) than those of today.
Because of that, I really don't hold much hope in today's youth having much more of a transformative aspect on society than the youth of the 60's and 70's did, and even that was quite limited.
My greatest hope for social change is in the legalization of marijuana and the so-called "psychedelic renaissance". As more people are exposed to these substances, their world view and conception of what is possible could radically change. These substances were powerful catalysts of social change in the 60's and 70's (and were one of the main reasons for their violent repression), and could become so again.
I am not sure that is the case. Contrast popular opposition to the Vietnam war, which didn't become widespread until many years into the conflict, with the opposition to the war in Iraq, where protests drew hundreds of thousands of people even before the actual invasion.
We don't have to change human nature. We just need to change human behaviour.
Changing human behaviour is very easy. Just replace every Ad currently in use with an eco friendly message.
Make eco damaging behaviours "uncool" and there goes our young generations eco damaging behaviours.
Facebook and google can do this in an year, if they put their minds to it...
As 2016 had shown, we're well past the point where it was possible for a centralized (or even moderately stratified) entity to declare certain behaviors "uncool". Changing human culture without changing human nature introduces huge arbitrage opportunities for malicious actors and demagogues and increases overall existential risk.
Which event has shown?
> Changing human culture without changing human nature introduces huge arbitrage opportunitie...
What has "culture" to do with this? Behaviour is not the same as culture. Some one might have a habit of throwing garbage on the roads/public places. That is not his culture, that is behaviour, and is easily changed once he find himself in a place where that behaviour is frowned upon.
That is what I am talking about. It is easy to accomplish, but it is not going to happen. Because that means less consumption, and everything about todays world is about pushing towards more and more consumption. Imagine the impossibility of seeing a billboard that says "Do you really need that new SUV?".
Which event has shown?
I imagine they're talking about the recent US election, for one. For pretty much the whole campaign, including primaries, everyone pointed out all the ways in which Trump was a terrible, completely unsuitable candidate, and he won anyway.
Electing your leader is a very subjective, personal thing. Throwing your garbage out and driving an SUV is not. People does not actually care about doing any of those things.
They care about fitting in and looking cool. Change that and you can change everything.
Correct, but the comment I made about culture applies doubly so to behavior. Yes, you can change behavior. Yes, you can make people ashamed of doing X. That is, until certain Mr. Y comes along and shows them how to feel better about themselves, how to improve their self-esteem and show the world a middle finger---by doing precisely X. You will be completely powerless to stop Mr. Y. Powerless. You will be laughed at, and the fingers you thought would point at them will turn upon you.
> That is what I am talking about. It is easy to accomplish, but it is not going to happen. Because that means less consumption
Oh sweet naive innocent child. You think consumerist capitalism is to blame. You're almost right... Almost.
Exactly. Thanks for proving my point.
>Oh sweet naive innocent child. You think consumerist capitalism is to blame. You're almost right... Almost.
I think you give me too much credit. My comment didn't not imply anything that deep.
Colonizing other planets requires getting a much smaller group of people to cooperate, and it will be in their individual self interest to do so.
I'm curious how other people view this, which one of the following most accurately depicts reality:
a) There will always be opportunists who take advantage of self-interested opportunities despite there being a larger group whom will not be willing to grab these opportunities for conceivably moral/ethical reasons a.Example) Plumpy'Nut - Economists and doctors work together to develop an affordable nutritional product to combat malnutrition. Academic research is invested in the endeavour. Company comes along and patents the product to seek profit at the cost of humans suffering malnutrition b) All people will always grab whatever self-interest is available to them despite harm to their group, unless social structures are in place to align their incentives with those of the group. c) Most people inherently are motivated to work together due to social nature of our species, only a minority wishes to be truly self-interested despite the welfare of their group.
Also, people are more prone to be selfish in some environments than in others. One relevant example is that people that were taken advantage of are more prone to it than people that weren't.
And you'll have to add policing efficiency to the equation. We are pretty great in forcing people to cooperate.
That said, nuclear weapon stockpiles have enshrined a certain risk that if/when these weapons are eventually used in anger, the consequences will likely be far more horrific than any previous conflict in human history.
Except that that wasn't what the above commenter was saying, of course.
I don't get this argument. People want to fuck and reproduce, and the next generation will contain the genes of precisely the people who most want to, and so on. Something needs to check this other than wishful thinking.
One, the whole notion that we shouldn't being working on something until someone else's preferred goals have been achieved first is arrogant tot he point of absurdity. I could just as well argue that she shouldn't waste any more funds on what might be a lost cause before we establish an emergency beachhead on another planet for backup purposes.
Two, this position has been expressed so often as to be a cliche. It's not helpful to trot out really timeworn arguments as if they were original, without considering the existing best arguments on both sides.
There are simple solutions to most of our issues.
Just because they're simple doesn't mean they're right. If things were really so simple we'd have arguably taken care of it already. As a general rule, any system that depends on everyone behaving a certain way is doomed to failure because there's abundant evidence in history that people frequently choose to put their individual interest above that of others. You can't just legislate that people will behave unselfishly; past attempts to do so seem to invariably end in totalitarianism. Likewise while I'm all in favor of reducing nuclear stockpiles the probability of a world with no nuclear weapons is close to zero because it's impossible to forget the knowledge that enables the construction of such a weapon, and the impact of nuclear force on an asymmetrical military conflict are simply too large of an incentive to overlook. In a world of billions of people clustered into hundreds of countries (which are semi-conscious aggregate entities imho), it's statistically almost inevitable that you'll have some actors that are militant, relatively weak, and give in easily to temptation.
That's why we should become multiplanetary species sooner, rather than later.
Take the global warming. We actually know how to solve it - we just don't, because it's not a real problem yet (not on a large scale at least), and it costs money to solve. We can put mirrors in space or on the surface of the planet to cool it. Yes, it's expensive, but it's doable.
Pretty much no scenario makes ALL of our planet uninhabitable to humans. Except a big f*ng asteroid.
It wasn't until we finished extirpating the majority of the non-African megafauna and apex predators and the totallity of all other human species that we could even be bothered to settle down and invent agriculture and civilization, et cetera.
All the indigenous people who we have any evidence of from historical times (eg. the last 5,000 years) are already living in a post-ecocidal world, where every species that could be rendered extinct with relatively simple technology already had been.
Sustainable, my ass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysa5OBhXz-Q
This played out in the Pleistocene extinctions to a very significant degree, having tremendous effect on ecosystems everywhere. Here's an entire conference worth of the subject:
http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/events/2014/megafauna-conference/ind...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/22/nasa-ear...
all I am saying is that we need to keep our priorities straight.
How about we do both?
A Titan colony wouldn't be self-sustaining for years, probably decades. That means we many investing massively in the maintenance of the elites on Titan. That isn't Utopia. That's elitism. (See every non-trek sci-fi ever written.)
Vacations once upon a time were just for the elites. A trip from England to Greece was for the very upper crust. Now millions of people can easily make the journey thanks to modern technology. The whole idea is to develop something for the few and as it scales up, it becomes more widely available.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zc4HL_-VT2Y
then come back and tell us how stopping eating of animal-based foods is going to help.
Far more attention? You said yourself that 10% of your country is already vegan and growing, that's a good piece of attention to me. How many of your friends are actively trying to get you into a starship? Come on, that's just a blog entry, no need to take it personnal :)
We need to establish societies independent of an earth which might become dominated by unshakable planet wide tyranny at some point. Physical distances and gravity well energy requirements inside the solar system may be as adequate a protection for independent cultural survival as oceans were in the past centuries.
While this is obviously a long term result, it really should not be delayed unnecessarily.
I think both are highly valuable. But I agree that it is remarkable that we appear to be putting in little effort into trying to resolve our societal issues.
I think a new system is required. https://opensocialism.com is my very alpha initial version that I'm trying to iterate on. Are you interested in helping? :O
Generally the logic of the work is:
1. Capitalism is poor at providing value to the majority (eg. globally the top 1% have more wealth than the bottom 99%) and ensuring the long term survival of the species (eg. protecting the environment). 2. However, until there is actually a viable alternative it is a moot point. People who criticize capitalism tend to be caught up in marxism which in reality is an old, overly simplistic and unstable system. 3. Use the open source model to build a compelling alternative to capitalism which can then be promoted.
I've completed a very alpha version which details the system reasonably well but I guess the current goal is to get help, which I have found difficult.
This is the repo https://github.com/open-socialism/open-socialism.github.io which I am doing the work on. I am on an associated gitter channel.
I am also doing work on another site to help convince people of the problem that I explain here https://github.com/open-socialism/open-socialism.github.io/i... (will put into github soon)
https://opensocialism.com/open-socialism/ is a reasonable overview of the main points of the system.
Uh, anyway.. Any help is welcome in the form of feedback, github issues, PRs or whatever. No pressure :)
Still, there is a nonzero chance of civilization being destroyed by external forces, like a proper supervolcano or a massive asteroid. We should pursue both making the earth better AND colonizing different worlds.
As for wealth redistribution, I may be pessimistic, but how likely are you to give up 3/4 of your salary post taxation to someone you aren't related to and don't know through some kind of redistribution plan?
We do need to live sustainably on Earth in the long term, but colonising the solar system isn't going to prevent it or meaningfully slow us down in doing so. Maybe we should do both? It's not an either-or situation.
The lessons learned from colonising other worlds will allow us to better manage Earth, much like past space exploration has already done.
"I'd like to share a revelation that I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You move to an area, and you multiply, and multiply, until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet, you are a plague, and we are the cure. --The Matrix"
http://www.ted.com/talks/ellen_dunham_jones_retrofitting_sub...
Wanting to make the world a better place is nothing new. It’s an obviously desirable goal, but can we at least pretend to be realistic about it? Just going by the list of desired outcomes you’ve provided, you’re proposing a radical realignment almost every significant aspect of our economic, political, and social systems as a species. These might not be difficult engineering problems (well, not directly, at least), but they are by no means simple things. And for all the problems that free markets might have, they’re also very good at solving many others.
Literally no one is proposing that we go and terraform Mars, Titan, or any other planetary body anytime soon. These are all significant, long-term efforts that won’t be possible for well into the future, and they presuppose the existence of significant space-based industry that hasn’t been built yet.
Any terraforming proposals are for well into the future, and presuppose the existence of significant space-based industry that hasn’t been built yet. By the time that comes around, our industrial capacity will be—by necessity—far greater.
Even today, the opportunity cost associated with space exploration is a tiny expenditure at only 0.5% of the US federal budget. For decades, NASA has worked on a shoestring budget, with their hands tied by the demands of congress, revolving presidential administrations, intelligence agencies (look at how their hypothetical mission requirements dictated major design changes for the Space Shuttle), and an apathetic public.
Space exploration isn’t just for the enjoyment of space-groupies and science-fiction fans. There are real-world benefits, and access to a growing space-based industry gives us a host of new options for dealing with global challenges.
No matter how charitably you look at efforts to curb greenhouse gases, it’s very likely that we’re going to need to look at large-scale climate engineering efforts to deal with the consequences. And if we’re hoping to industrialize underdeveloped nations, thereby helping counteract some of the global wealth disparity you’ve mentioned, we’re going to need climate engineering because those efforts won’t all be clean ones. Space-based solar power could help deliver even cheaper, more efficient renewable energy that sidesteps many of the problems faced with terrestrial solar receptors. The efficiency demands of any space colonies would spur continued research on genetically modified food crops, even beyond what would be economically viable for purely Earth-based farming. Plus, we’d likely see further development of crops similar to golden rice in an effort to simplify a colony’s food production needs. Despite the hysterical overreaction to golden rice on the part of certain activists, such improved crops could have a significantly outsized effect on the health of peoples in impoverished nations. Better yields, and hardier crops able to be grown in a wider variety of conditions can also help local farmers overcome some of the logistical difficulties they currently face.
And that’s completely ignoring the very real threat of impact events. As it stands right now, we do not have the capability to deflect an asteroid that’s on a collision course. While the overall risk of a major impact event might be low, the potential consequences are pretty scary. No matter how you look at it, we’ll eventually experience another impact event. It’d be nice to avoid losing a city or two, or worse, when that happens.
I guess my point is this: even if we pushed for a major increase in space spending, it’s still a tiny, tiny fraction of the 2014 gross world product (GWP) of approximately $107.5 trillion (PPP). It’s as close to a rounding error as you can get when you’re talking in terms of billions. And while there’s always an opportunity cost, that money doesn’t exist as a separate lump sum that can just be redirected towards another project that you find socially acceptable. Nor does investing in space mean leaving Earth behind and repeating the mistakes of the past elsewhere.
It means giving humanity more options, increased industrial capacity, and technological advances that can be applied to other problems. There is literally no reason why humanity can’t continue to work towards more sustainable (however you want to define it) practices, while simultaneously expanding its space presence beyond LEO. It’s the very definition of a false choice.
I don't see how redistributing wealth will reduce population growth. Natural selection ensures the population will grow and wealth redistribution will ensure it doesn't grow at a rate that's proportional to the growth in resource production.
Moreover, I don't see how you can get 300 million people in the US, let alone 7 billion people on Earth, to all agree to redistribute their personal assets.
Developed countries have lower population growth due to better access to sex education, contraceptives and healthcare.
If "redistributing" wealth gives big chunk of Earth population access to those three one can expect to have reduced population growth.
This is backed by studies that just giving women access to education reduces fertility as well as infant and children mortality[1]
1. http://www.prb.org/Publications/Reports/2003/EmpoweringWomen...
High income that mostly constitutes personal earnings is different than high income that mostly constitutes guaranteed government transfers. The personal responsibility required to maintain the former creates an incentive to avoid having children one is not financially capable of support. The lack of any such requirement in the latter creates the opposite incentives.
Moreover, the correlation between high resource availability and low population growth is a historical anomaly. For most of history the opposite has been the case. There is no guarantee there won't be a return to the historical norm. Natural selection will favor the growth of population groups that respond to high resource availability with larger families, so this is what we logically expect to predominate.
Finally, you never answered how you would get 300 million people in the US, let alone 7 billion people worldwide, to agree to redistribute their personal assets.
What a horrible lie to spread. What you said is hardly the case at all. Scientists have known for many decades that Earth is already beyond its carrying capacity. Multiply that by the fact that our natural ecosystem is collapsing way faster than any estimates, and you get the fact that humanity has NO CHOICE but to establish a self-sufficient colony off Earth as soon as we possibly can. You're in denial about the severity of our situation, but without realizing it you're also not aware of the reality of the problem. CO2 is not the real main cause of global warming; and global warming is just the first step in a series of steps that will result in the destruction of human civilization. I've already got verification of this through lots of research and collaboration with peers and we'll be publishing a paper soon. But completely aside from whether this supposed cataclysm is going to happen in 1 year or 200 years, and given that technology continues to develop and be used, why on Earth wouldn't we ensure our survival by distributing ourselves?
I would apologize for my tone but to be honest it's imperative that you and the the people around you open your eyes to the reality. If not, you will also perish. Would you rather live forever or perish forever? And if someone appears in front of you and says "here is your way to live forever", would you turn away from them or would you try to verify their proof?
What cataclysm could kill life on earth if we have the ability to survive in a place like that?
The problem I'm talking about originates in the gravity field of Earth. Human activities have formed an obstruction in its circulation which according to models can lead, rather quickly, to a big explosion of energy from the core. But it's pretty tough to find people who I can converse properly with about gravity because even the majority of specialists today lack (a) the basic knowledge about how gravity is generated, how it maintains itself, and what circumstance would cause an already-formed gravity field to lose itself, and (b) the basic willingness to question the knowledge they piled up in their heads.
Whenever/wherever science and technology develop, humans will tend to use it for bad results because it's easier, more comfortable, and more convenient for people to be ignorant. Combine that with the fact that any habitable planet's ecosystem is homeostatic and you get the result that humans destroying their environment is pre-determined to occur. I can't speak to what would happen if humans were actually able to make it off Earth but I could say that I have a much stronger case to show that humans destroying their environment has happened before multiple times in the past than the argument to show that humans just developed agriculture within the last 10,000 years. However, that's somewhat besides the point. The only real answer to your question is that humans are going to do it again no matter what planet they're on, it's just that we are very much out of time on Earth right now. If we are for some reason actually able to establish other self-sufficient colonies then the only way they can maintain their stability is for a majority consensus of individuals in the society to be correctly taught, correctly understand, and accept the fundamental principle of what kind of causes in what problems lead to what kind of effect so that the society doesn't lose justice. But it's sort of an idealist situation because we can barely do that kind of thing in small groups.
Upvoting for comedic value.
Ways to address climate change: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/people-still... http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837709...
Way to address the supposed food crisis: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2012/aug/26/f...
People were saying this before the Enlightenment. There is no evidence that this is true.
Our population is probably not sustainable with the way that we currently treat the environment, but that doesn't mean we can't evolve our sophistication. This has been the same forever.
Alternatively, a population on earth of 50 people is arguably not sustainable if they spend their efforts trying to kill each other with the world's stockpile of nuclear weapons.
There's no such thing as an inherent carrying capacity of people irrespective of technology or total biomass.