Google To Announce List Of Vendors Who Will Support VP8 On May 19th
blog.streamingmedia.com
blog.streamingmedia.com
*I am under no illusion that 'us all' doesn't largely include Google themselves in this case, of course.
If they don't, it won't be long until there exists an open-source implementation. There already exist very high-quality open source implementations of H.264, like x264. Since VP8 won't be patent encumbered, there will probably be even more impetus to create one.
Safari on iPhone and iPod isn't too great an obstacle either despite their mobile mindshare because they only support H.264 baseline and that (combined with their mobile nature) means a separate video file is probably recommended anyway.
And on the Microsoft side only IE9 is announced as supporting HTML5 video (with H.264 amongst a few other codecs), and no-one knows when it's coming out, probably some point in 2011 and not for Windows XP. Plus since Microsoft's VC-1 died off they don't really have a dog in this fight. They'd have to balance the minor benefit of H.264 patents being a hindrance to open source rivals (but not Apple or Google) against falling behind web standards if everyone else goes VP8.
So the one Google really want to convince is Adobe Flash. If they're on board you get effective 100% uptake within a year of release across all desktops (XP, Windows 7, Mac OS X) and all browsers (inc. Safari and IE 6, 7 and 8) and that's the kind of leverage you need to get Microsoft and Apple to follow domino style. And similarly to Microsoft they gain no real business benefit from H.264 files that can just as easily be served outside Flash.