IANAL, but federal criminal procedure requires more than just a smell of fraud to convict someone in a federal court. A Federal prosecutor either needs a political bone to pick or a pretty easy to convict case to push for charges. Federal prosecutors have limited time and pick things that either grant them political expediency or they believe that they have enough evidence that the person they are going after is going to end up convicted with some certainty.

The problem here is not that Theranos has failed or has misrepresented the product, it's that Holmes personally needs to have been found to directly misrepresent the company in a fraudulent fashion. Her and Theranos can likely be sued (as civil cases require "preponderance of evidence") but I highly doubt you can prove fraud beyond a reasonable doubt unless there is a much greater scandal that is unearthed during an investigation. And that's probably not going to happen.

So let's talk about a federal investigation of Theranos, then: this is someone who has had James Mattis, the current prime candidate for Secretary of Defense, for help and sits on the board of Theranos [1]. She is connected to most of the political elite (Kissinger et al, all of the VC/finance world.) If anyone can put down an FBI investigation on her person, it would be someone this well connected to organizations that the FBI themselves lean upon in some way or another. This is Washington, and let's be real, favors are favors. Helping one of these guys somewhere in some way buys you favors, and you may be able to trade to get the investigation off of your back.

Furthermore, what stands to be gained by all of those on this board in power by prosecuting Holmes? It would tarnish the reputation of potential cabinet members and all others in Washington that "believed in" Holmes and her ideas. The political PR nightmare for these guys isn't worth the trouble of being involved in this. It becomes scandal for them. They would best see the company fade into irrelevance, and begin setting up the message that this is just another failed entrepreneurial case, of people making a moonshot and missing it. Tell Holmes it's OK, give her a powerful position in some healthcare think tank, and be on your way.

Also, what message does it stand to give the American public that have been sold on this visionary? The PR storm told people here is a white, female college dropout who hit the Forbes list and achieved the American dream. Do you really want to start a news cycle where Holmes is now being thrown in prison? Do you want that message, especially when so much of Washington is connected to it? That's emotionally heartbreaking to many.

So there's no bone to pick, if anything negative political blowback, an uncertain ability to prove Holmes herself defrauded people, and enough political power to tell the FBI to look at someone else. This is why I say there's little to no hope of her going to prison for this. Holmes knows what she is doing on that front, even if her visions didn't fully materialize. She has played the PR game pretty well up until this point, shoved her chips all in on the moonshot, and failed to deliver the goods. Frankly, I think she has thought all this through and her bets are on what I've said above. The question is whether or not this line of thinking is incorrect. I am armchairing it, and her life is on the line.

[1] http://www.fiercebiotech.com/medical-devices/theranos-asked-...