>Note: Those who grew up in one state, went to college in another, and then moved again are counted as migrating from the state where they attended college.
Also, I'd imagine that this methodology doesn't affect things too much, considering that around 70% of high school graduates go to colleges in-state.
Each of those is an interesting data point with different ramifications.
source: Native Mainer, who moved to New Hampshire to get a decent job, who would love to go back home if the whole remote IT job revolution ever actually happens.
"People who grew up in one state, went to college in another and then moved somewhere else are counted as migrating from the state where they attended college"
To me "somewhere else" means a third state neither KY or MA.
So a full 30% go to colleges out of state? And I would wager that quite a few come to be close to family afterwards. That's a huge swing in the data.
It's possible that the overall effect of out of state students is small but we have no way of verifying that with the data presented.
No it doesn't, it's a footnote that affects a few states significantly but has little impact on the bigger conclusion about inland states losing out to coastal areas.
Footnotes aren't there to handhold us all the way from set theory axioms to sociological conclusions. There are a host of potential confounding effects that could be large but common sense tells us probably aren't for various reasons. This is one of those.
E.g. why does Kentucky show in-migration and Kansas out-migration? Why does Alabama show out-migration while Louisiana shows in-migration? Arkansas shows in-migration but Missouri shows out-migration? Oklahoma shows in-migration but Kansas shows out-migration? College-educated people are moving to big cities in Wyoming but out of Nebraska? Are Connecticut and New Jersey showing a net in-migration of college-educated people because Connecticut and New Jersey residents are going to school in New York and moving back home?
I've gotten to know plenty of exceptional programmers, people with hackathon and open source chops and they all uniformly depart to Silicon Valley.
Silicon Valley companies and large VC firms are very organized and pursue them aggressively. First for internships and later for full-time positions. Then they get to the Bay area and despite what they think is a huge salary they soon learn that they need to pay half of it just to get an apartment.
The issue really seems to be that you want a different question asked. In which case feel free to do the research to answer your question!
Say that NY and NJ are equally attractive destinations for college graduates. But say NJ has no colleges, and everyone goes to school in NY. Under the methodology of the article, NY will show a huge out-migration and NJ will show a huge in-migration, even though they are identical in terms of keeping long-time residents who graduate college.
I think that phenomenon explains exactly what you're seeing with pairs of neighboring states. Is anyone going to seriously argue that NJ or CT are more attractive destinations for college graduates than NY or MA?
State A has 10k students, 5k from out of state, and 3k leave.
State B has 10k students, 1k from out of state, and 2k leave.
Which state is better at keeping students?
This study points out an interesting sociological dynamics we do not understand fully (pardon my ignorance here as I did no verify if there actually exists a better study) and looking further into it would only create more confusion and possible false assumptions.
That's not an atypical situation.
Regardless you are a graduate and the graph still reflects "Where Young College Graduates Tend to Move".
But then you'd have to explain why South Carolina and Georgia have such high net immigration and why the Northeast generally is so negative. I suspect, as you say, that you need to factor in colleges explicitly.
The methodology is given but it makes me question what this show in a meaningful way.
Atlanta has cheap housing and good and growing jobs. Warm weather, few hours from the beach, few hours from the mountain. It has a little bit of everything. Tons of companies building new offices. Construction everywhere to accommodate jobs and people. Mercedes headquarter moved here from New Jersey. GM located a huge tech center, etc.
Now, on the map it has Florida with a net gain. I'm from Florida, went to college in Florida...left for work. I don't know what college grads are going to Florida for...lots of my classmates left Florida, and some actually came to Atlanta.
There are a handful of datasets that track migration patterns, which can be used to assess movement in and out of geographic areas to other counties, states, and international territories.
The ACS does provide fairly granular geographic analysis, which could be used to look at individual colleges and their migratory patterns. If one were to care about the migration patterns of SUNY schools, for example, one could look to see whether those individuals stay in state, or then leave the state, upon graduation.
All in all, the ACS is a great tool for high-level research, but often opens more questions than answers.
Even for me, who's been trying to stay in Chicago as long as possible, it's the second biggest temptation for me leaving, outside of wanting better job prospects.