Guilds, Ethics, and Software Engineering as one of The Professions
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I also really hate the idea that software "engineering" would become one of those fields, like law, that largely coerces people into a three year $150k+ degree paths.
Licensing doesn't bother me in theory - the most important thing, I'd say, is that it remain largely indifferent to how people acquire the knowledge necessary to take whatever entrance exams exist (like the actuarial field). They can be very rigorous (they certain are for actuaries), but they must allow multiple paths that can't be locked down and and converted into brutally expensive degrees by a cartel of gatekeepers.
I am not confident this could be avoided, and it would be much worse than nothing.
I also think that michaelochurch wrote a very insightful essay on "clerks" and why lawyers were historically motivated to "secede" into a profession, with an analogy to present day software developers. I'm fully aware of everything around all this, but I do highly recommend finding a cached copy and reading it, very interesting essay.
I don't know if licensing and certification will fix any of this, but I feel like sooner or later some kind of regulation will be enforced.
The amount of knowledge it takes to grok a full stack software system is equivalent to the amount of knowledge a doctor has to know easily.