Silicon Valley frets over foreign worker crackdown
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Of course, that remains to be seen but, at the same time, I don't believe the intention is to cut off all immigration, only illegal unregulated immigration, the way most advanced economies do.
What's going to happen to legal immigration: nobody knows. Trump has said a lot of things, and by the time a bill gets through Congress, it may be very different.
Your line of reasoning is one of many plausible scenarios.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/26/business/economy/if-immigr...
No one would walk miles through the Arizona desert if it were easy to do things legitimately - the only people sneaking around would be actual criminals.
And of course this one is a classic:
http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2014/06/the-optimal-number...
Hell, I'd help the law with tips myself if it meant companies would be forced to increase wages as the market forces shake to accommodate decreased supply.
This idea would work in a world where both malevolence and all kinds of errors do not exist. Ours is, unfortunately, different.
Greece, however is a good point: if you make your economy bad enough, no one will want to go there. This worked for the US during the recent recession.
You start enforcing it for the most egregious cases and others get a little more hesitant to break the law. Then you do it again and more back off. At some point, you reach a happy medium where there's "enough" enforcement that egregious cases are rare and punished heavily while the rest aren't worth punishing.
Yes, just like speeding.
So if the Trump administration at some point considers Liechtenstein to be not in compliance with Trump's ideas of handling illegal immigrants, fully compliant H1-Bs from Liechtenstein might get in trouble the next time they need to renew their paperwork.
Astute reasoning.
For a specific example, Vietnam refuses to take back their nationals who entered after 12 July 1995. We recently had a case regarding Viet national in the US illegally who, upon serving that sentence, was released among the US public because he had originally entered the US illegally before that 1995 date, and Vietnam refused to allow him back in.
He went on to commit another homicide this year.
- The country is too slow in taking back people, which is entirely possible when the plan to deport 3 million people is implemented.
- Especially for "illegal immigrants", it's sometimes hard to pinpoint their actual nationality (and they might not be honest about it for whatever reasons). So they claim to be from India, but the Indian Embassy claims that they're definitely not Indian but given their accent may be from Sri Lanka (and so refuse to take them back). Sri Lanka doesn't want anything to do with that person either. Now what?
Neither of these need to happen, but these are issues completely outside the control of law-abiding visa holders that may soon be hanging over their heads.
But, since they aren't, and if you are right, I guess Trump will be doing right by most countries, since in your account he'd be deporting their brain drain.
It is not uncommon for immigrants to work 20+ years in the US before they can become citizens, always facing the prospect that unemployment or sickness means they have to be out of the country in as little as 10 days.
Of course not. The idea that Trump's election would be detrimental to Silicon Valley was a fear mongering tactic promulgated by left-leaning tech luminaries. Say what you will about his other stances, but all signs point to a very pro-business administration.
I'm more worried about business interruptions coming as a result of the holy war that some ultra-liberals have unleashed on anyone that they view as responsible for not getting their way in the election than I am about Trump interfering with any aspect of American business. The Grubhub incident was truly disturbing, and several people have publicly said they would cut Peter Thiel out of deals specifically because of his political beliefs. It seems that Democrats stress tolerance, except when they have to tolerate anyone that disagrees with them.
Are you referring to the CEO e-mail? [1]
"While demeaning, insulting and ridiculing minorities, immigrants and the physically/mentally disabled worked for Mr. Trump, I want to be clear that this behavior - and these views, have no place at Grubhub. Had he worked here, many of his comments would have resulted in his immediate termination."
Sounds like standard HR policy to me.
[1] http://media.grubhub.com/media/press-releases/press-release-...
This email, and all attempts to defend it, are far worse than anything that Trump has allegedly said or implied. This is an attack on democracy itself.
It seems to me this is the free market in action. Your labor is worth so much less as a bigot that you are unemployable. Tough shit.
Unless you want to add political beliefs to "protected classes". But it was my understanding that conservatives don't think the government should be involved in mandating voluntary associations.
And the email did not say to resign if you supported Trump, it said to resign if you would engage in bigoted acts. "demeaning, insulting and ridiculing minorities, immigrants and the physically/mentally disabled" is how those acts were specified. And frankly, if that's how you're going to behave, then you have no place in any organization.
Pertinent parts of the email:
"... I absolutely reject the nationalist, anti-immigrant and hateful politics of Donald Trump and will work to shield our community from this movement as best as I can......If you do not agree with this statement then please reply to this email with your resignation because you have no place here".
Probably a lot less than half (which lack of diversity is itself part of the problem).
So, if you don't agree with what he said about Trump was true, you should leave.
And, yes, that is only one possible interpretation of that sentence. It was not specific enough.
If he's talking about whether people agree that the workplace should not be hostile, that's another thing.
It's too bad he felt the need to inject politics and the threat into this statement. He could have just stated the company policy and ask workers to see HR if they had a problem with it.
He ridiculed the Reaganite trickle-down theory of wealth distribution, preferring the earthier phrase "the horse-and-sparrow theory" - "If you feed the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows."
From this interesting (long) overview of Galbraith's life and work: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2002/apr/06/socialscie...
(I know more than one person who works in SF/SV and works literally in the same department as half a dozen other people from their home cities, all moved out to SF and given enormous pay differentials to live there).
Focusing on the 10-15% of H1B's is not doing this issue justice, in my opinion. Wipro, Cognizant, Infosys and TCS are not Silicon Valley startups.
However, how much do Silicon Valley startups eventually hire from the Infosys etc. pool of H1-Bs?
Old line Silicon Valley companies like HP are notorious for doing this, although as I recall they've been cluefull enough to avoid the "train your own replacement" PR debacles that are most recently driving this, those are in companies where "IT" is a cost center, like that California electrical company and Disney.
(*or for the cynically inclined, replace "spirit" with "stated purpose")
https://www.justice.gov/usao-edva/pr/couple-pleads-guilty-20...
https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj/pr/virginia-immigration-atto...
Lawyers and doctors have strong "guild" protections to stop overseas labor competing. Software devs do not.
I'd be interested in reading more about this if you have a link handy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/12/business/economy/long-slog...
Professional associations like the AMA (American Medical Association) for doctors and American Bar Association for Lawyers act as de facto unions w/o drawing the negative connotations that unions sometimes do in modern politics. The AMA even lobbies the government which sets the rates doctors get paid for medicare procedures and medicare is the largest payer in the healthcare system.
For medicine, this is wrong. The bottleneck is residency programs, not medical school. We graduate more medical students each year than we have residency spots available.
And for residency programs, the limit isn't artificial - it's funding-driven. Residency programs run at a loss for hospitals, so most residency programs are funded through Medicare.
> Even if you did it in your home country and are unquestionably qualified there is a long process you have to go through.
Yes, and that's not to artificially limit the supply, but because training differs by country, and just because you're qualified by one country's standards doesn't mean you're qualified by another. And for what it's worth, the residency process is oftentimes much shorter for people who are licensed to practice in other countries, so it's not like they're starting from scratch.
> Professional associations like the AMA (American Medical Association)... act as de facto unions w/o drawing the negative connotations that unions sometimes do in modern politics.
The AMA may be the most-hated organization in the medical field. People who don't practice medicine hate the AMA, largely because they aren't clear on what the AMA is and is not responsible for, and often misattibute things to the AMA[0]. And practitioners hate the AMA because they are actually aware of what it does, and because the AMA has a long history of siding with payers (insurers) over practitioners.
> The AMA even lobbies the government which sets the rates doctors get paid for medicare procedures and medicare is the largest payer in the healthcare system.
If you think the role of the AMA is to ensure doctors get paid well by Medicare, then they're clearly not doing their job. Medicare reimburses, in the aggregate, 7% less than COGS. This means that, in effect, for every Medicare patient a private practitioner treats, they would end up having to provide their services for free, and then still pay an additional 7% out-of-pocket for each Medicare patient they treat, to cover the costs that Medicare doesn't.
This is the reason that private practices are a dying breed, and why it's actually very difficult to find small practices which will accept "vanilla" Medicare.
[0] For example, people often blame the AMA for limiting the number of medical school spots that are available, which is wrong on three counts: (1) The AAMC was responsible for this, not the AMA, (2) The AAMC has changed their policy and is now aggressively lifting this cap year upon year for a long time now, and (3) as I explained above, the number of medical school graduates isn't the bottleneck, so the AAMC's policy has no effect on the supply of doctors entering the market each year.
Here is an article from fortune on the AMA...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoodman/2014/09/03/the-docto...
Not necessarily. This is only true for companies where minimizing the cost is the best (sometimes only) strategy to increase profits. Tata, EDS, Accenture, and the many IT body shops are all in this camp.
For the so-called "SV tech companies", they need a steady supply of talents to continue creating products that in turn generate new revenue streams. This is much more valuable than saving 30% off in an individual's compensation -- at the expense of high turnover, when said worker realizes he/she is being underpaid.
Artificially reducing an already dwindling supply of talents in the top tech hubs won't make salaries go up; it will simply shift the jobs elsewhere. That is already happening for many companies.
It's true for any company. Did we forget about the Silicon Valley wage fixing already?
> This is much more valuable than saving 30% off in an individual's compensation -- at the expense of high turnover, when said worker realizes he/she is being underpaid.
That's the entire point, if you underpay, you get high turnover. But what is considered underpaying is relative to the market rates. And if you get more supply, market rates drop.
As an example, interns at Google in the US earn about $7000 a month, while in London they get about £2000. That's because of market rates in London are far lower than in the US. Ideally, tech companies in Silicon Valley would really love it if they could have the same employees as they do now for half the price.
Just speculating, but I imagine for Google the real estate cost of moving their headquarters to London would far outweigh the small amount they'd save on labor.
Google has about 40000 engineers. If they paid $70k less per year per engineer (median total compensation for a Google engineer is probably around $200k), that's a saving of about $3 bilion a year.
I cannot understand why so few US companies open engineering sites in Europe, and when they do, they are much smaller than in the US. It's really easy to get good engineers in Europe.
So while there appears to be a large salary gap, the total cost to employ someone isn't quite as divergent.
Fast forward today, programmers rake serious money getting better than average salaries, in some places several times more than peer salaries. But supply also increased several times. It's just that demand increased faster. I think that if supply would fail to increase we'll see smaller wages today as the market will fail to evolve.
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12940754 and marked it off-topic.