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Comment by zn44 | Hacker News Reader

By nice relations you mean: sure take Ukraine and we don't care about Baltic states?

Why doesn't EU take care of that? They are closer, it is right in their backyard it affects them more?

The EU is already taking Ukraine. Not by force but by politics, we already helped Poroshenko in place there. too bad some countries prefer not to associate with corruption ridden Ukraine [0]. But hey, EU leaders usually don't care what voters think (we got the Treaty of Lisbon after we voted no on the EU constitution).

[0] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35976086

EU surprisingly did take strong position when Ukraine crisis started. Only way EU countries can stand against Russia is if they have backing of NATO. Without this noone will take the risk.

In part at least, because two of those countries are NATO members and thus all other NATO members have a duty to protect them.

Because we have a vested interest in keeping peace in Europe. As a country it has worked to our advantage to keep large markets under our protection. Having a dumpster fire in your neighborhood is bad for business.

If you wanted to avoid fires, playing with matches (read: extending NATO to the border of Russia) wasn't exactly a clever plan.

Extending the zone of safe and free society is definitely in our interests. I don't know when it became in vogue to openly shit on the Democratic Peace Theory, but it's certainly not for a lack of evidence. I guess it's something that you people have committed us to relearning.

But you didn't extend the zone of safe and free society; if anything, you reduced it. And it's not like you can claim it was an unforeseen consequence: Russia told you explicitly that they would "take military and other steps along its borders if ex-Soviet Ukraine and Georgia join NATO" [1], an then they proceeded to do just that in Georgia [2].

So you poked the bear without having any way to contain it, and you shouldn't be surprised that people blame you for it having razed the village.

[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-nato-steps-idUSL114...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

Why do russia need baltic states? Name at least one reason. It seems that's just baltic horror. I can see only few microscopic countries without resources of strategic significance but with dead economies and most of young population in other EU countries. But yeah "Russia really wants to conquer us"

Why did Russia need Crimea and Eastern Ukraine?

Crimea - it's were russian navi is. The former soviet military harbors for Black sea were rented by Russia. When power changed in the Ukraine to be USA/NATO oriented Russia did everything to keep it's military presence.

As for Eastern Ukraine - I feel like Russia doesn't need it per se - just as distraction and zone of destabilization in order to protect Crimea.

Russia needs Crimea to secure it's excess to the Black see. Losing Crimea to NATO (or losing it at all) would be a huge problem. As long as you have Crimea - you basically control most of the Black Sea.

As for the Eastern Ukraine - best case scenario - securing a terrain pass to Crimea. Worst case scenario - destabilisation of the the country and more 'ground' during negotiations over any deal. Almost like taking hostages.

Baltics don't have such values.

oh yeah? How about Kaliningrad, a military base, not being an enclave anymore?

Military base is not stronghold anymore. You don't need to protect it from siege. Kaliningrad is just a place of location of strategic missiles of medium range. It single-use weapon. You don't need ground path to Kalinigrad.

And there is no personnel (along with their families) and no logistics involved. Yeah, sure, why not.

Baltic states have no value? How about connecting to Kaliningrad and more destabilisation?

Also Russia neighbours should sleep well only because they don't have something Putin wants now?

Russia never "took" Eastern Ukraine, even today. It mostly sat on the sidelines whilst a civil war between pro-EU and pro-Russian forces played itself out, at most sending weapons and special forces just like the West did.

Crimea? Sebastopol port has always been part of Russia and the center of their fleet because it does not get frozen in Winter like other ports.

Having ships under frozen water is the same as not having ships at all.

Easter Ukraine? It is were the industry of Ukraine is. It is very near Russia and as most of Russia is plain, it is very easy to invade the country(Russia) from it.

Russia wants to have a buffer around their country in the same way the US does not let anybody to have military bases and missiles near the country, like in Cuba.

As an Estonian I can give a few hints.

First, historic precedence. Russia has attacked & occupied the baltics multiple times. Imperial Russia occupied Estonia during 18th - 20th century, and Soviet Russia once again occupied for half of the 20th century. During this time they sent the natives to Siberia, while importing Russians here and imposing other forms of russification [1] to obliterate our culture. It's more than just about land, it's about the survival of our culture which has been under systematic attack by Russia for the overwhelming majority of the last 300 years. The current Russian regime isn't much different and holds a strongly anti-Estonian view, so of course self-preservation is the #1 political issue for us.

Second, there is both strategic significance and resources here. We're talking about the previously western border of the Soviet union here. Uranium mining, nuclear submarine bases, missile silos. Better access to the Baltic sea, and closer reinforcement to Kaliningrad.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russification

Well, there's another historic precedence - Baltic Germans. Do you afraid that they maybe coming due to historic precedence too? Ask Czech Republic about them and "obliteration of culture". Do Czechs afraid of Germany coming back?

Again, I'm not trying to say that "big scary bear" is actually teddy bear. I just cannot imagine Russia being able to invade any country in EU. It's like saying there's a chance Russia would invade USA. Is it worth uranium and some bases? Doubt so. Does Russia have any resources or technical capabilities to confront EU? Doubt they ever will.

Also, about self-preservation - look at your emigration proportions [2] (shame they don't show trends - just pie charts :( ). Only this year trend is positive, but still estonians flee the country.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Germans [2] http://www.stat.ee/277526

Good question and I would say the difference is the current regime and their actions.

Germans have been very cautious after WW2. They haven't been acting aggressively, they haven't been holding parades to celebrate Nazis as heroes, they don't have statues of Hitler in the middle of their cities.

Meanwhile Russia still celebrates everything Soviet as the biggest heroes that have ever lived, and have an amazing number of Stalin statues/paintings everywhere. Then they fund & organize attacks on Georgia [1], and annex Crimea [2]. Then, as recently as 2014, the FSB came into Estonia and abducted one of our intelligence agents. [3] This agent was denied contact with anyone, and was given premission to only use a Russian appointed lawyer. In a charade of a trial he was quickly sentenced to 15 years in prison. He was later exchanged for a FSB agent who was sitting in our prison. [4]

So you see, it's not only about precedence, but it's also about the continuation of the theme and actual real events that keep happening.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eston_Kohver

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksei_Dressen

"Why do russia need baltic states?"

Because Baltic states were part of Russian empire once and USSR later. Putin would be forever glorified in Russia and could rule till the end of days if he'd manage to "restore the glorious Russian Empire". Another reason is that Baltic countries stand as a gate to (old) Europe for Russia in both economical and military meaning.

RE: "restore the glorious Russian Empire" - his latest customs/economic union with Kazakhstan and Belarus is a joke. And there's two most pro-russian regimes as of now. CIS is also as good as dead. USSR is gone and won't be restored.

How Baltic countries gate from Russia in "economical meaning"?

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