Peter Thiel – Full Speech – 2016 Republican National Convention
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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12884413
FWIW I predicted Brexit and Trump. I made 4 predictions this year.
1. Irish same sex marriage would succeed. 2. Brexit would win (with possibility of sabotage). 3. Trump would win the presidency (with a high chance of being assassinated). 4. Civil conflict would break out in Europe (2016-2017).
I'd like to be wrong about the 4th, but that's the one I'm most sure of.
I think this because I believe a great deal of what we call society is cyclical. We're at a point where I think many old ideas are about to be revived.
Talking explicitly about the last prediction will probably get me a hellban but my email is in my profile if you wanted me to elaborate.
> And how far ahead of these events did you predict them?
This is rough, I didn't keep a notebook for them. To do it properly like Scott Alexander I'd have to state a probability and some limit so a failed prediction couldn't be weaseled into a 'prophesy'. To the best of my memory it is this:
In the case of Brexit, at least six months, maybe a year. In the case of Trump, close to half a year. In the case of the same sex marriage, as soon as I heard it proposed, I don't remember when that was. And the civil conflict prediction is about 1-2 years old. Those are highly random difficult to predict events. I think I would have put it into a 'Five Year Plan', and 2016 would be Year 3, so that's 2 years 2 months to go. I increased my confidence when I found out the CIA had the same prognosis on civil conflict in Europe for the same time period.