Hacker News Reader

Comment by mc32 | Hacker News Reader

A different question altogether, but interesting none the less, let's say Russia or China get to colonize Mars first, then let's say they find a safe way to thrive there. could they then by extension manage new colonization of Mars the same way we colonized earth? That is the colonizer could regulate who might get to further colonize Mars --ie require a kind of interplanetary visa (if we allow many people from many places on Earth have the means to get there)? Are there treaties which require any colonizer to allow other people to set a foothold there? And what if the new Martians just declare independence? Do we cross our arms?

View on HN

There is the Outer Space Treaty [1]:

> The treaty explicitly forbids any government from claiming a celestial resource such as the Moon or a planet.[3] Art. II of the Treaty states that "outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means". However, the State that launches a space object retains jurisdiction and control over that object.[4] The State is also liable for damages caused by their space object.[5]

I assume "other celestial bodies" would include other planets.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty

Yes, and countries can, and do, remove themselves from treaties when they feel it is in their best interest. The most critical one in our time was the anti-ballistic missile treaty which the US withdrew from in 2001.

If a country felt they could control access to and maintain control over, a celestial body I could imagine them withdrawing from the treaty and claiming that body as their own.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/13/international/bush-pulls-o...

It's pretty hard to secure a border crossing in a country, let alone an entire planet.

Planets are noted for, among other things, being rather large.

Here they would not be defending other terrestrial intruders but rather space invaders from earth, so they'd be reasonably sure where to look out for coming troublemakers. On the other hand, they could be in a precarious position if their habitat isn't terraformed (not needing intensive energy to keep things habitable, thus a weak point in sustainability).

On the plus side, planetary distances are so large you know for a long time that someone is coming to your planet. So you have time to prepare a reception.

So, while no one can actually claim the land, if they land a bunch of habitat shaped 'space objects' on the surface, it is still under the jurisdiction of the country that launched them. Sounds like a loophole? "We don't claim this land, it's just covered with a city sized grouping of space objects that we do claim."

Or just unfold a big plastic sheet on mars, and claim sovereignty over that plastic sheet.

Dispatcher: Hello 911

Caller: Someone just broke into my space pod.

Dispatcher: Ok, I'll send someone right over, should be with you in 6 months or so.

Add several hours of delay between phrases.

That said, the definition of "space object" could make things tricky. Sure, China doesn't own this chunk of Mars, but they own the Mars base, and freely mine from the areas around the base, and decide who can open the door that they own...

This treaty only binds the governments that signed it, i.e. only the governments of Earth. If people colonize Mars, couldn't they create a new (local) government that would then be able to claim sovereignty of the planet?

It's no different than making your yard a sovereignty. Nobody else on Earth has to recognize it, and it's up to you to defend it from anyone willing to take it for themselves.

This treaty will be shred to pieces the moment anyone with power gets a serious economic and colonization interest in space. It's utterly worthless.

The treaty of Tordesillas regulated colonization, but it ended up falling by the wayside as countries not party to the treaty decided to just ignore it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Tordesillas

The colonization of Earth was accomplished with brute force, not visas.

Imagine deep sea exploration. Someone finds something very valuable and worth extracting despite the cost. There are treaties for this, of course. But would it work the same for Mars? Or, would we revert to force, as you say, if the Mars colony declares independence and says, no more Earthlings or only Earthlings from Country X who pay us handsomely.

When it comes to politics might is right.

> Mars colony declares independence

It worked out fine for the USA.

A Mars base declaring independence would be like the Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station declaring independence.

If the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station ever achieved a self-sustaining system, maybe they would have declared independence.

edit: Meaning, it's more like saying 'The Columbus Expeditions declared independence'. Only once the colonies were, mostly, self-sufficient could they look seriously at independence.

I mean... if a Mars colony really pisses people off, I imagine you'd hear the phrase, "Nuke them from orbit" bandied about a lot.

This would probably go both ways. In fact, as Earth has so many satellites (GPS, communication, etc), you could simply "nuke" the orbit.

It could, but that assumes an incredibly advanced Mars which can produce interplanetary weapons and launch without detection. Earth would also have the benefit of being able to withstand the event without total destruction, while presumably life on Mars would be in a relatively small area. You could wipe out a city on Earth, but you you could wipe out life on Mars.

Eventually though? Hell yes. Same with asteroid belt colonies and mining, especially when you consider the tech to exploit asteroids and the tech to steer on at Earth would look pretty similar. Presumably the limiting factor on such aggression would be the long-term dependency on Earth for supplies that couldn't be fabricated offworld, foodstuffs, and so on. At first, for at least a couple of generations, you'd also have the strong connection to the homeworld, I assume.

> And what if the new Martians just declare independence?

We just cut their supplies for 3 months ;)

Presumably they wouldn't do it without becoming self-sustaining first, just like the American colonies.

There is a historical precedent for a similar situation in North America, which was settled by the French and Indian War.

Given the success rate of holding on to local colonies nearby on earth, my guess is it won't last and Mars would become independent at some point.

Of course... that's one of the arguments for colonizing Mars sooner than later.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com