Examining How the Great Firewall Discovers Hidden Circumvention Servers (2015)
fermatslibrary.com
fermatslibrary.com
HK is not affected by the GFW, as far as I know.
It also provides a simple way to detect a transparent MitM proxy. If OVPN fails to connect but an "unprotected" https connection gets through then the alarm bells go off and the presented SSL cert gets a serious examination. I keep a couple of thumbprints of known certs handy for this - the discipline of proper checking rather than a cursory glance at an image that the GUI throws up.
I use readily available stuff but looking into the description of how the obfs protocols work in Tor I'm impressed and rather glad that my life or liberty doesn't depend on my efforts. When I get it wrong I simply lose access to BBC iPlayer or whatever. When someone who is having to take this rather more seriously gets it wrong, they might not get a chance to repeat their mistake.
I've found plain OpenVPN over TCP or UDP stopped working a few years ago (even using remote-random to shuffle ports). PPTP mostly still works.
I haven't used other VPN protocols for a long while, and don't use commercial VPN providers, but occasionally hear from friends that they have temporarily issues (for hours or days, but not weeks).
htttps://www.example.com/http://www.baidu.com/cache/global/img/gs.gif
There are a number of variations including plain IP numbers and other URLs, like www.google.com being used.I guess at some point somebody accessed the site from China.
EDIT: Just got another probe from 94.102.49.174 owned by Quasi Networks Ltd in the Seychelles.
Probably not China.
Probers might have their own unique TLS fingerprint.