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Comment by draggnar | Hacker News Reader

I disagree, what they've done is externalized many of the risks (battery fires, unforeseen supplier bottlenecks, etc) and maintained focus on building cars that people want right now. They haven't been able to keep Tesla from entering the market and becoming a competitor. Perhaps the next disruptive innovation in transportation will prove to actually be disruptive but so far EVs haven't. Most people don't up and buy the newest car as soon as it comes out, so 3 to 4 years might not be as damaging as all the risks could have been.

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The issue is going to be what they do over the next 3 to 4 years. It will be extremely difficult for a major automaker to make a major push towards electric vehicles right now. It isn't so much technical limitations as it is internal business problems.

They would have to expend billions building out a competitive charging infrastructure and building a marketing machine that would advocate for "the car of the future". That car would be a minority of their sales and yet the marketing message would immediately make their other cars seem obsolete.

Basically, noone can take the market seriously until very late in the game (maybe 5 - 10 years from now). I agree with your point that this may not hurt them that much in the long run, though.

They would have to expend billions building out a competitive charging infrastructure

Love the way my car is tied to refills only from the car manufacturer's brand of gas station because it's the only one with the right shaped nozzles.

:rolleyes: for an annoying future.

Tesla uses the standard Type2 plug in Europe. You can also charge any Type2 equipped car with the Tesla home charger (EU model). Most Tesla owners I know have the CHAdeMO adapter as well, so can pretty much charge from every fast charger available.

Well, at least internal business problems should be considered "ruled out" by now at Volkswagen...

I fully agree on the difficulty and importance of infrastructure, this is something where it would be really difficult to match Tesla, at the volume of a mainstream brand. When Tesla says that their cars are sold at a profit, the wording seems to be very carefully chosen to avoid admitting that the package of car plus charging network access is not.

I don't know (m)any company as innovative and disruptive as Tesla. Apple, maybe.

And if anything, Tesla is internalizing risks with the strategy of vertical integration.

Do more Teslas catch fire than ordinary cars? I doubt it.

Tesla has some 400,000 buyers literally paying $1,000 for the honour of getting in line for years to pay Tesla another $35,000 for a model 3. Which other automaker has customers that passionate? Sure, Apple had a few thousand waiting for days in front of their stores before every iPhone. But that was college kids. But show me an automaker that can excite people as much as Tesla.

I hope that there will serious competition for Tesla, but I think VW and Mercedes are not the ones.

> Tesla has some 400,000 buyers literally paying $1,000 for the honour of getting in line for years to pay Tesla another $35,000 for a model 3. Which other automaker has customers that passionate?

Lada.

Back in the Soviet Union, this is how every car was bought. Except the wait would sometimes be decades.

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