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Comment by Kalium | Hacker News Reader

One could make a strong case that the entirety of human history is staying one step ahead of disaster. Political, economic, cultural, agricultural, and so on. One could very reasonably make a further case that it's generally those who embraced risk who did the best, long-term.

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Well, the explanation for that looks like it's a job for survivorship bias, isn't it?. I mean, we could not know about the huge amount of people that have died by betting their livehood in the wrong risk. Only that the stakes are higher this time, we are not talking about a few tribes trying their hand with agriculture, but messing with the food chain in a way that could spread continent-wide easily.

It's possible! We do know about a number of societies that perished because their conservatism got them out-competed.

That sort of competition hasn't gone away. The world of people capable of using CRISPR isn't going all agree to a cartel-type pact to never do certain things. There's too many people and the bar is too low.

Hmmm! You're making me want to move to India and set up a GMO shop.

Go for it! The world needs more people willing and able to take those risks.

Very true for the notable successes, but let's not forget the large percentile of risk takers who ultimately fail in obscurity.

I've not forgotten them. I remember them right alongside the even larger percentile of those who failed after deciding to stop taking risks.

Indeed.

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