Comment by alvern | Hacker News Reader

Comment by alvern | Hacker News Reader

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The article cited 1.5 million jobs in the US trucking industry. That number seems low.

edit; That number seems hard to define. Of the 7.1 million people employed throughout the economy in jobs related to trucking activity, 3.4 million were truck drivers in 2014. There are over 10 million CDL (Commercial Driver’s License) holders in the U.S., but most are not current drivers and not all are truck drivers. There are between 2.5 million and 3 million trucks on the road today that require a driver to have some sort of CDL. Of those trucks, 1. 6 million are tractor - trailers. Of those tractor - trailers, n o more than 800,000 are used in OTR (i.e., non - local) operations.

Source [http://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/News%20and%20Information/...] Page 4, footnote 6

There are entire mini economies in small rural towns off major interstates that are dependent on the inflow of truck drivers - gas stations, restaurants and diners, parts and tool shops. All these jobs would probably go, too.

Yes, but there are also the taxis and local delivery using trucks and cars. Are my children going to ever need to learn how to drive?

That's a very pertinent question. I guess it falls on if you own a personal vehicle that you maintain until they become of age. Easy financing for personal autos may soon dissipate when the self driving car comes of age.

Learning to drive may become a bespoke thing in 30 years. You only learn because your father/mother/family is an enthusiast that kept a sports car or classic maintained.

The commercial pick up truck could hold out as the last non-autonomous vehicle. Maintenance and service will still be done by humans, for now.

It's quite a fair question - not seen the stats recently, but combined with lower barriers to other transport options, increased learning and insurance costs, and density in cities, the numbers now learning to drive in their teens and twenties has dropped massively [0]

[0] http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2279619/Numb...

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