Ask HN: What percentage of YC startups make it? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: What percentage of YC startups make it?

32 pointsolalonde19 comments

What percentage of YC startups make it and what percentage fail?

Considering YC only started in 2005, it is too early to say how many "made it", the definition of which is ambiguous in the first place.

This spreadsheet has a list of YC companies along with whether or not they are dead or have exited: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AkkhSN3vaY4jdF90b1l1...

Great list. Surprisingly, I hadn't even heard of YC's most successful exit (Divvyshot, acquired by Facebook at 20M$).

Interesting that you would call it the most successful, given that the general consensus on tech blogs (whatever that's worth) is that it was a talent acquisition/distress sale. I think the founder's statement came across as an unhappy ending (not what he envisioned, but that could have just been the way I read into it). It was a pretty cool interface for a photo site but unfortunately the most memorable thing I knew about the company was the drama with that teen from techcrunch trying to have the Divvyshot founder buy him a Mac to get favorable coverage on Techcrunch.com

I'm about to start work as a new employee at a YC alumni, hopefully we'll do better!

Well, as an investment, that's somewhere around a 50-100x exit for YC, if their investment in it was roughly along the same lines as the terms they currently offer. And the founders didn't do too badly either, walking away with $millions. I mean, they sold for more than Reddit!

That figure has not been verified.

How do you know?

Just computed from the reported $20m exit, and the typical investment sizes / equity proportion that YC typically does. (I have no particular knowledge of whether the $20m figure is accurate or not.)

How sure are you of that $20m number? It sounds high.

Not sure at all... I took it from the spreadsheet.

I'm the guy who keeps/maintains the spreadsheet.

ALL of the exit values (except 1 or 2) are my personal estimates and educated guesses... nothing more. I'm always happy to revise them with better information!

Why did you guess $20MM for Divvyshot?

Honestly, I can't remember. But more than happy to change it with better (or for that matter... any) reasoning!

All of your exit numbers seem crazy high. I'm left wondering if it's just wishful thinking, or if I'm way underestimating how much companies will shell out in talent acquisitions.

One number that I know for sure (it was publicized at the time) is Omnisio for $15 million. At that point it was about six months or so into the life of the company, which seems crazy high to me.

TechStars at least publicizes whether the exits are > or < $2million, which can be a helpful guide...

$20M would be awesome deal for Sam - a self funded (?) single founder led company...

I'd bet under $10M, probably closer to $5M. Based on me sitting in my chair knowing nothing.

Unless you have something supporting an estimate, I wouldn't put anything in at all.

If your guess is no better than the reader's, I think it's best to provide the relevant information you know, and let us draw our own conclusions.

http://blog.awesomezombie.com/2009/12/analyzing-y-combinator...

Not YC, but relevant to question in a lateral way: http://www.techstars.org/results/