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Based just on this info I'd take the real estate route. Healthcare has bureaucratic constraints that make it a tough world for startups-- at least startups that aren't founded by older people with tons of money and connections.

The biggest problems in healthcare are bureacratic, but something has to be said about the mindset of doctors, too. They seem to hate change, and right now it seems like the only way the healthcare space will change is through the passing of generations.

No offense to any doctors out there.

I'm in healthcare and it's hard. At least here in the UK the NHS is big annd slow. They prefer large vendors like Microsoft and Philips over smaller agile startups. Our users (Doctors, Nurses, Pharmacists) are not our customers (Bean Counters, Management) and that makes getting good products that can help hard to get into the users hands.

But the possibilities for improvement are huge and you will make a real difference to the lives of people which makes getting your product adopted so much of a sweeter victory.

My advice is do what makes you happy, and if possible improves the world in some way.

Another thing to consider: in the US (assuming you plan to market in the US), 2/3 presidential candidates have proposed variants of socialized health care. The "conservative" candidate is a "maverick", who is not averse to doing similar things.

This doesn't bode well for long term planning. In 4-5 years time, who will the buyers be? Doctors, hospitals, or some American version of NHS? What regulations will you need to satisfy?

If the healthcare system is taken over (in any sense) by the government, expect major rent seeking from various special interest groups. M$ may purchase a "M$ software only" law, or hospital administrators may purchase a "don't let software steal our jobs" law. (Such laws will, of course, go by such names as "Helping Children not Die of Cancer Act").

In short, I'm saying that unless you are a lobbyist, stay away from this market for a few years. Do your real estate thing, come back to healthcare once the market settles down.

Wow. Pretty cynical take on American politics. :) Not saying that you're entirely wrong, but every industry has regulatory burdens to deal with. Real estate has their own challenges, including predatory lending laws, etc.

I'm not saying to avoid it because of regulatory burden, but because of unknown regulatory burdens.

You can plan for known regulatory burdens. For instance, in the automotive industry, just add millions of dollars worth of safety testing to your R&D budget. If the business plan still works, run with it, and calculate odds. In the defense industry, make sure you hire lots of lobbyists.

It's the unknown unknowns, not the known unknowns that will kill you.

Do what you love.

Money is only means to an end, the end being happiness.

If you spend 8 (or 12) hours a day doing something you don't like you won't be happy.

How do you know what it is you love? (Maybe by asking that question, I don't really know?) How do you go about finding what it is you love to do? On the same token, as long as I'm doing and learning a bunch of new information constantly, I can usually find interesting problems to solve.

Money buys freedom, opportunities, and most importantly time. I don't want to be a slave to my debts and habits, which is why I'll be debt free by age 25. Money certainly is not everything, but it's definitely a factor.

Good point.

There's a quote from an eccentric Danish Millionaire that says "Money can buy almost everything, and the things that it can't buy are free anyway"

What would you do if you had $100m in the bank? I love hacking, so if money were no object, I'd still be hacking. If I were in prison or on a desert island, I'd want a laptop with a compiler.

Perhaps this quote can help you answer that question:

"I am not particularly fond of the real estate industry, and it is not as sexy as solving anything in healthcare" - jyu

I've worked in health care for the last 15 years, and I really don't think that it's a viable field for startups.

Any device that you'd develop that touches a patient has to get approved by the FDA, and that takes millions of dollars and years of studies. I was involved with a company that subcontracted studies for drug approval. Each study was a couple of million dollars, and you had to do multiple studies to get through each phase, before a drug could be released. It's a nightmare.

healthcare is definitely ripe for change. but it is one of the hardest industries to solve problems in. the payment system is so complex, the customers aren't the decision makers, and they're not the payers either. so you have to keep lots of people happy.

so don't just go into healthcare because you don't like real estate.

Real estate looks to be in a bad spot right now. Health care is only going to grow, with aging baby boomers. Health care seems a lot more like doing something that will leave the world a better place.

youwalkaway.com is generating lots of money. You can make money even in tought times.

I would be more worried if real estate was boring and stagnant. Real estate looks bad right now, I'll admit, but oftentimes a shakeup is useful for companies entering the market space. (Decouples people from old methods and products, and also allows for new business processes).

Do both. Start a business you understand and start now on educating yourself more deeply on the issues in health care. To me the single largest opportunity in real estate is to move away from the broker model to a fixed fee model with guaranteed service levels. This would allow a focus on productivity and value added service, but my experience is much more limited than yours.

The only place that a market current functions in health care is cosmetic and other elective surgeries. Because the patient pays a number of incentives are aligned that are disjoint in the third party payer (e.g. employer / insurance) model. If you could find another medical practice that patients could pay for, a lot of startup opportunities would flow.

Entrepreneurs work from available means to ends, start with what you know well and work (assuming you have passion for it) and learn more about the aspects of healthcare that energize you.

Like what was said before, real estate is not doing too well, and if your application would require a high market then it might not work too well. On the other hand, it is entirely possible for someone to make money a few years from now by taking advantage of the low market right now, so it depends what type of market your application would thrive in.

If it were me, and I were only 4 months away from eliminating my personal debt, I would go for the short term gain. I don't know what your financial situation is like in terms of steady income or savings, but if you're still in debt, I wouldn't recommend something that will take longer to pay off it it does at all.

"think consumer web apps and most web 2.0 "start ups/businesses" can go to hell"

Fine.

I'm not going to challenge your opinion (you may be right).

I AM going to challenge your attitude.

You come to hacker news and insult (with profanity) that which is very important to many of us here. And then ask for advice.

So here's my advice:

Maybe you just came across wrong to me in writing; it's easy to do - I've done it myself. I should give you the benefit of the doubt, but I won't because most others won't either. Before you consider any career move, I'd suggest you seriously consider evaluating your people and communication skills. I don't care what you pick, if you turn people off like you just did to me, you will have problems succeeding. Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I suspect not.

Show me that I'm wrong about this, earn some trust, and keep asking for help. Interesting to see how this turns out.

1 less competitor is always better. And what is web 2.0 anyway? I an going for web 5! Any followers?:)

did I tell you? Now, I am going for Web 6

Web 7 here I come!

You know, you're absolutely right. I was out of line with that comment, and I see how people could pretty easily take offense. Thanks for your honest feedback, and I will keep a careful eye on this type of behavior.

Don't be a stranger. Let us know what you decide and how it goes. Always interested in success stories from those who aren't chained to their terminal all day (and night) long.

Talk to the Estately.com guys. If nothing else, you can hear how much fun it is trying to change the real estate market via the startup route. They'll probably also be happy to tell you about all the roadblocks the old-school real estate folks put up just to prevent this. And they're all-around cool guys with lots of interesting stories.

(No, I am not one of them, but I had a beer with them once.)

Thanks, will do!

I built an apartment rental listing site in rails for a now-defunct startup. Maybe it could fit what you're thinking about. I'd be interested in hearing your ideas (although I'm in the middle of a different project now). I'm ebeland on gmail if you're interested in talking about it further.

I think the fact that you lack insight into yesterday's healthcare industry works for you -- it's an industry that's desperately in need of fresh perspective. These "insights" can blind you from new opportunities that may shape tomorrow's healthcare industry.

Both industries are ripe for change, but if healthcare's grass looks like it can be greener, go for it. You have 4 months to explore its problems.

"When you're green you grow; when you're ripe you rot"

Healthcare, as many others here point out, is difficult, bureaucratic, and potentially unstable do to the political climate; however, medicine is no so bad overall. There are medical technologies growing constantly and while it does involve a little more initial investment some of these areas approach "startup" levels of innovation and risk.

I'd suggest there may be more variety on the "healthcare" side the real estate.

Ask YC: What would you do?