How One Goldman Sachs Trader Made More Than $100M
wsj.com
wsj.com
The real reason they make all that money is flow. The guy on a desk like that knows what customers are calling, what they're concerned about, roughly how easy it is to get rid of stuff, and so on. It's not surprising he has a good idea of what's going to happen, and he's in a good position to take advantage.
Surprised their VAR (which is a crap way to measure risk) is not even halved in relation to before the crisis. People were definitely chucking it about back then, and the mood these days is like a morgue.
I personally think Banks should be incredibly boring utilities. But that ship sailed a long time ago.
Lots of great stuff was thrown out the window in January. My winning bet for the year was to start buying EWC (ishares Canada) during the market lows.
You say "and the mood these days is like a morgue". Please elaborate.
In what sense is "everything shut down by compliance?" Is compliance so cumbersome, that no one can be arsed to do any big trades?
Imagine your compliance officer coming over to you or a coworker to give you news of an investigation of trading activity that happened months ago.
Imagine banks hiring compliance employees to keep up with a growing number of regulations, and firing IT guys to pay for it.
Imagine being quoted on the biggest trade of the year by a client who is screaming at your salesman for a price, and having to mentally iterate through a checklist of "is this over X dollars notional, does it surpass Y position limit, etc" because you have been in ten different meetings where compliance officers passed out Powerpoint presentations outlining new rules.
Imagine seeing an opportunity for a great trade, but doing nothing about it because you can't justify opening a new position in a subsector where you have no client positions.
Imagine having your emails and messages frequently investigated by regulatory bodies because they were flagged by a word search or some other unsophisticated screening tool, and being asked to write an explanation of months-old conversations that you have since forgotten. After a while, you don't feel comfortable putting anything in writing at all, even if you follow every rule in the book.
Imagine you make 10 times the national average salary
Plus the politics in a shrinking industry, you need a big premium to suffer through it.
A lot of people who work in banks do not have a particular love of the industry, they're there because it's what paid well when they finished university.
Because their capital base is less stable, they will be more prone to stop making markets precisely when you need them most. That will probably make extreme volatility events like flash crashes much more likely.
This is already happening today to some extent:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-07/flash-cra...
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-06-03/people-ar...
'In the new system, the market makers are computers, and when things get hairy they just stop buying pounds and walk away with their computer hands in their computer pockets, whistling a jaunty tune out of their computer speakers.'
So, arguably the rebound is what was odd not the dip. There is a bias when looking at stock markets that says up is good and down is bad. However, accuracy is vastly i more important for the overall economy.
Aggressive traders who understand market structure can and will profit.
I remember flash crash days - my trading platform stopped responding - I could not get quotes and I could not do trades. I desperately wanted get a fill at the flash sale prices. No dice for me. Some friends who had stops in place found out that their broker had automatically sold their positions at deep discounts. Aggressive traders (with working platforms) benefitted for sure.
From what I know of market making however is that you match a buyer and a seller of an asset, correct?
If I do have this correct about market making. Are they playing ask buy spread? Whose best interests is the market maker supposed to look out for? The buyers? The seller? Some combination therein?
Prop trading: you buy or sell based on a guess which way things will go and hold that position then exit at (you hope) a profit.
Normally the big book of banking says market makers "provide liquidity" which in my experience is enough to make most people in banking stop right there as providing liquidity is to them akin to passing bread to orphans.
"as providing liquidity is to them akin to passing bread to orphans."
I'm not following your meaning there. Meaning?
Also, is every brokerage also a market maker?
The arms race where you never get to zero.
When George Soros decides to sell a billion British pounds, that's a prop trade. He's not hanging out letting the trades come to him.
(I say currency booth, not exchange, just to avoid confusion. We usually say exchange, because that's what happens, but it's not an exchange in the market sense.)
1. is basically market making. You can either wait until you have a matching trade and take a cut (=exchange, broker). Then you're always flat (that is, you don't care where the price moves - you always get your cut). Or you can post bid and ask at which you are prepared to trade. When someone avails themselves of this, you then have a position, and the market might move against you. The spread compensates for that risk. Key here is to distinguish informed traders (that offload stuff on you before the price drops due to some news) from "dumb money", aka noise traders, that just want to buy or sell some stuff, but don't have information where the price will go. The latter make you money on average, the former might cost you.
2. That's basically manufacture of derivatives, say. You buy or sell an option, charge something on top of the computed price, and then trade underlyers against it to be flat, and at the end ideally realise that charge.
3. This is basically prop trading. If you put on the proper position, and your view turns out right, you make money, otherwise you lose. You need to be right more often than wrong :-) and quite some capital cushion to balance out the wins and the losses.
So, prop trading is characterised by you NOT being flat, i.e. you are exposed to market moves. As someone pointed out, when you are market maker, you are also exposed, but it's for short periods of time, and not the main goal. However, this does introduce some ambiguity.
We can drag them back to harbour any time we want. Let's keep fighting.
If you get better at measuring risk, VAR can go up. For instance, if your models assume that asset classes act in an uncorrelated manner, then VAR may be very low. You improve the model to capture correlation, and VAR for the same exact assets goes up.
Net - they could have a much less riskier position, but improvements in their risk modeling might not reflect it in VAR.
VAR can be good in conjunction with other metrics, but it's pretty awful as a standalone because it doesn't measure the severity of very rare tail events.
There is a difference but it is subtle.
Suggested alternative: "How One Goldman Sachs Trader Made His Firm More Than $100m"
A "Managing Director" so I'm pretty certain that he didn't do it himself, his team(s) did. Frankly annoyed by this recurrent praise for management people, at this level such a guy never dips a toe in the trenches.
If we had 20 large banks the size of GS, GS doing stupid shit and tanking wouldn't be an issue.
Goldman Sachs will pay $5.06bn for its role in the 2008 financial crisis, the US Department of Justice said on Monday. The settlement, over the sale of mortgage-backed securities from 2005 to 2007, was first announced in January.
“This resolution holds Goldman Sachs accountable for its serious misconduct in falsely assuring investors that securities it sold were backed by sound mortgages, when it knew that they were full of mortgages that were likely to fail,” acting associate attorney general Stuart Delery said in a statement.
-- https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/11/goldman-sac...
In the, you know, "would you buy a used car from these guys?" sense.
I trust that you're aware of the basic chronology. If not, it should be fairly easy for you to look into.
100m sounds high but 100m is a rounding error especially if spread across 100s or even 1000s of trades.
I guess making 5% returns isn't such a big deal when you are playing with billions of other people's money.
For anyone that wants to avoid the paywall.
An average well-established seasoned trader might earn anywhere between 400k and 2m a year dependent on luck and skill and general company profitability - but in every given year, there are probably a few dozen traders in every top-10 investment bank who make 10 million plus (though they are generally heads of desks or the partners in charge anyway).
2) The day-to-day component isn't very "glamorous/fun" it's time intensive and can feel very "hurry up and wait".
3) You should to be really comfortable with math.
I did some basic forex trading with trades that were on average $400-$1000 of risk and it really opened my eyes to how "trading" works. It's all about risk management. I freaked out when I realized that big bank guys are taking positions in the 100k+ range and even though it was fun, I stepped away.
There are huge advantages that the institutions have built for themselves.
Not only that, but these guys are often some of the quickest, toughest, most perceptive people you will ever meet.
- Copy the URL
- Paste the URL into the Facebook textbox where you would create a post
- Click on the preview, so the referrer url is Facebook
Could probably make a Chrome extension for this...
The problem is that's a teaser rate. The current rate for 1 year is $277. That's way more than I'm willing to pay for a single newspaper.
Also someone had already mentioned - they probably run many Ads as well. I just find it hard to justify.
Source: I'm on mobile right now, it doesn't work. Country of origin and/or incognito mode could be a factor.
Seriously, would we tolerate any other subscription required site? Why does WSJ get a pass?
At least in this case, the WSJ article looks like it's the primary source for this story:
https://www.google.com/#tbm=nws&q=%22Tom+Malafronte%22
The other hits that come up (right now) are foreign-language articles and/or cite the WSJ.
More broadly, my guess would be the WSJ is tolerated because it often has interesting stories that aren't covered or covered well anywhere else (and we're all fairly adept at avoiding its paywall).
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html
Are paywalls ok?
It's ok to post stories from sites with paywalls that have workarounds.
In comments, it's ok to ask how to read an article and to help other users do so. But please don't post complaints about paywalls. Those are off topic.