Even over the ocean, flights in airliners are planned so they're no more than 1-3 hours from the nearest diversion point.
Seems like an insignificant risk, and cutting the flight time by 10% might do more to reduce risk than staying over land.
Of course, we don't know what happened to mh17, which might have also glided into the ocean.
Given modern aircraft design, flying over open water makes good sense.