Jobs that no longer exist
imgur.com
imgur.com
Towers to watch for wildfires are still in use https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_lookout_tower
Drones are also loud, which has a cost for every false positive.
Back before programmable general-purposes computing machinery existed, computer was a human job description -- a human being who was employed to perform basic calculation tasks rapidly and accurately.
But I wish I could find a more significant example of some industry that was huge and is now entirely gone due to modernization.
So, let's not fool ourselves with predictions. We are notoriously bad a predicting long term trends.
PS: the analogy with horse is wrong in so many ways (because horses are not humans and cannot adapt like humans) but this would be another topic altogether.
The problem is that throughout human history the demand for unskilled labor has exceeded the supply, and that has been the foundation of our social contract: work, and you eat. Don't, and you starve. But some day soon, technology could make that assumption no longer true, at which point we could have big problems unless we radically rethink how our society is organized. That is something we humans have historically not been very good at.
Look back also in the early 1900s where all major newspapers were proclaiming the end of world and massive famine if we ever reached 1 billion people on Earth"
"It is estimated that the population of the world reached one billion for the first time in 1804." Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_milestone_babiesIf we all put our backs into it, we can make sure that we need at least that many.
We just have to write really bad documentation and really sloppy code, which lot of people believe we are doing already.
With a bit of effort maintaining the software being written today will become such a monumental task that no Soft Eng will ever be out of work for millenia to come.
When the fox's shoulders went under water, I bet some of the fleas said "ten minutes ago 70% of us lived below the fox's shoulders and yet they're all still on the fox, so there's nothing to worry about."
My take is that we use the labor that was being used in farms for new productive purposes including health, education (as consumption, not investment) and entertainment. It's undeniable that life expectancy is increasing so we are getting something out of this increased efficiency.
Automation makes things cheaper. Look at food, it was the largest expense for most families for a very long time. Now for most families in the US it's not even close. We have taken the jobs that used to be in that area and gotten rid of them, and instead moved them into service industries like the ones I referenced above. Making things cheaper means more disposable income to be spent on luxury/nonessential items, which creates a market which didn't really exist, which in turn creates jobs. This is not hard stuff here.
But what if for almost every human supplied product/service there's a good enough machine substitue, or even just a human substitue that demands very little labor ? couldn't we reach a stable state of high unemployment ?
I call them "creative professionals who do what they do by choice".
The majority of non essential work is not "movie stars and Michelin chefs", it's either automatable burger flipping or bureucratic busy-work created to overcome the lack of a system for distributing social wealth outside of "roll around for it".
To put it in another way, we could maintain our current production and give free massages and pedicures to everyone with far fewer jobs than we have now.
The difference with robots though is that they can actually 100% out perform humans in the not to distant future. Once a robot has hands as agile and controllable as ours, and once they have energy requirements that are cheaper than ours, I don't see how humans could compete with them in non-cerebral jobs. And there is a good segment of the population that can only do physical work.
The price per pint is roughly 2x what it'd cost in a store, but the milk is fresh, organic, delivered to our door - and very importantly for us - generates very little waste. The empty glass bottles go back with the milkfloat, so we use far less plastic cartons.
You may be 100% correct in this case, but in general, I think this is a very hard thing to discern, especially without a pretty deep analysis.
I'm not saying it is perfect, but I would think that 'price' is highly correlated to efficiency of the product delivery pipeline and efficiency is probably well correlated to 'waste'. The major confounding factors would be understanding what externalities are (or are not) being included into the final price and the distortions introduced administratively by government policies.
So a 2x price factor, to me, is indicative of possible inefficiencies relative to store distributed milk but certainly not definitive.
First, the volumes are much smaller. A large store chain can negotiate prices lower because they will be shifting a lot more product. The effect on unit margins adds up on both sides of the equation.
Second, the cost of labour. A grocery store should have a fairly big figure for units sold per employee. (Not just milk, but everything they sell.)
Third, we are obviously paying for service and convenience. The milk is delivered fresh, early in the morning. We just open the door and get the bottles. The fact that the empty bottles are taken away for no extra effort is an additional convenience factor, but one of the big reasons we originally went for a milkman service.
Number four - the milkman company is a business. They need to make a profit too.
Because the company operates with a dairy, I can probably discount the cost of specific cold chain maintenance. They would be maintaining the equipment and cooling in any case due to the products.
We could get groceries delivered from the shops, but that is still less convenient. The delivery slots are either during the day or in the evening, and we need to be at the door. Delivery is an extra charge, and priced so that it makes economical sense to order a lot more in one batch. This actually adds a disincentive to ordering milk: we enjoy fresh milk, and with longer delivery intervals it sure wouldn't be as fresh when we drink it.
And finally: the amount of plastic waste, even with our reduction tactics, is pretty significant. If we bought our milk from the store, we would need at least one more plastic recycling crate to hold all the milk cartons.
(I kid, I kid)
- wooden barrels / casks for wine beer
- coppersmith (not sure about the exact term. i mean people who create pans and pots by hand)
- basketmaker
- coachbuilder
And you can still get premium milk delivered in the Denver area from Royal Crest dairy.
Today, though, the tradition only survives in Cuba,
with an estimated 250 'lectores' or cigar readers
employed at factories across the island†
250 may not sound like alot, but it's a small island, where the government oversees production - there are are only a few dozen brands of cigars. So I'm guessing, with 250 readers, most factories have one on the floor.2. The fact that it's a human speaking makes particularly annoying sounds (eg. most music) impossible. There is also strong social pressure to not be annoying, because the person to blame is right there in the room.
So we can go ahead and get a lector, but I'll be tuning them out with headphones or working from home.
Proximity matters.
Modern pinsetters have a different style than those of old. https://m.imgur.com/ePXtfSU?r
0: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/29/sports/duckpin-bowling.htm...
http://history.stackexchange.com/questions/21161/how-long-di...
Figure that a single book was 1/2 to 1/3 a man-year's labour, of rare and skilled talent. They were more bespoke jewelry than media, and often treated as such.
If you think about the falling costs, and increased access, to information over the span of centuries, it's staggering.
I liked the job in part because I got introduced to a lot of new music. But with the internet, it is so much easier to discover new music than it was, even for a record store employee.
I have a Google Play music subscription and its recommendations are pretty consistently bad. I don't get it. I have given it all my music and it monitors how often I listen to every song. Why can't it figure out what types of hooks I like? The human-curated playlists are almost always better; even if I don't like every choice, there's still some ineffable spark of a single human personality that gives unity to the selections.
I'm thinking about at least relying on keeping my own digital library again. Also, have to agree about the music stores, they were and are good fun. I say that as they seem to be making a comeback.
Travel agent
Door to door salesman
Typist
Typesetter/Linotype operator
Telegraph operator
Ice and coal delivery
Appliance repairman
Then there are the jobs that just got consolidated out of widespread existence. They still exist but in very limited form. These are jobs that used to be regional until the market drifted toward economies of scale:
Radio host
Newspaper reporter/editor/cartoonist
Greengrocer
Bookseller
We had door to door salesmen back when I was young (15-20 years ago), they sold vacuum cleaners for Vorwerk or Kirby. High end systems, very expensive and they showed them at your home, my mother bought 2, so it worked haha. Then there are salesmen that sell stuff like scented candles, Tupperware, Dildos etc. pp. which throw tiny parties for their sales events at customers livingrooms. Not exactly door to door salesmen, but they visit customers at home to sell them things.
2009 I worked in an HR office (public service) where two typists worked, people recoreded letters all the time and they typed them with headphones on. I don't know if they still work there.
A friend of mine lives in Berlin and heats with coal. She says many flats in the east of Berlin are still heated with those coal ovens. Sometimes she buys the coal at the store and sometimes she gets deliveries.
Also here are regular markets with greengrocers and one of them even drives through my street once a week and sells from a truck. He has a bell and yells stuff like "POTATOOOOOS. FRESH APPLES AND CARROOOOTS" etc.
And a friend of mine works as a bookseller.
Appliance repair businesses are still around, they just focus on high-end appliances now.
- No intermediary/supermarket involved: Margins are fully paid to the producer who can either get a decent pay, work less or pay better materials,
- Vegetables are ripe, but needn't be nice, filtered or advertised in a fancy packing,
- Delivery at the reception of your company,
- The producer has forseeable recurrent revenue, just like developers for cloud services.
I've seen this in 2 French cities and in Sydney, so I bet it exists in San Francisco and most major cities.
One example: http://www.adamah.at
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community-supported_agricultur...
Also, I have several friends that run/work on organic farms and CSA memberships are critical to their ability to survive as small farm operations.
I stuck up skittles at a local government members' club just a decade ago too; I would assume that's still happening. It's not common, but some pubs still have skittle alleys - and someone's got to stick up!
http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/All/agd...
"In some European countries, such as Belgium, France, and the Netherlands, the muskrat is considered an invasive pest, as its burrowing damages the dikes and levees on which these low-lying countries depend for protection from flooding. In those countries, it is trapped, poisoned, and hunted to attempt to keep the population down"
The only reason that "ratcatcher" is a job that no longer exists is because it changed names to "exterminator", the same way that "secretary" no longer exists as a job and is now called "administrative assistant". Preferred titles have changed over time, but the basic job of killing rats absolutely still exists.
- luggage porters in train stations and the like. It used to be a whole business for voyagers who could afford it.
- shoeshiners: yes they still do exist in some poorer countries, but by large they have disappeared (for numerous reasons).
Certainly work place attire has become more casual across the board, but there are still places where people dress up like lawyers. I find them still in train stations where there is a large enough traffic of people to support it. It goes to illustrate that fewer people are getting their shoes shined when a shoe shiner requires half the workforce in a city to pass them by instead of just occupants of a single building.
It is perhaps that shoes are simply more disposable than they were before.
Were they actually stealing bodies? Was that something official or done in secret?
By chance I've recently read Dicken's "A Tale of Two Cities", which uses the banker's messenger secretly moonlighting as such a resurrectionist digging up bodies at night, as a plot device. Quite a fun read.