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What happens with election forecasting will be the least of our collective problems.

If the polls stay as they are and the election goes the other way, it means that polling as practiced is somehow fundamentally broken, which would be very surprising.

If there's a gradual shift in the polls, I'm not sure what that would mean. Which scenario did you have in mind?

BRexit will likely want to have a word with you.

I have a feeling that polling is used now a political weapon not a measure of reality.

Nate Silver arguably lost a good deal of "prediction calibration points" by placing a very low chance on Trump getting the nomination in the first place.

Not at all. A low probabilty does not make the prediction invalid because of the result.

And wouldn't the same be true if Trump wins the election? After all, Nate Silver isn't predicting a 0% chance for Trump to win, I think last time I checked it was 10-15%.

Well, that's not what I said either.

>doubly so if there's no major scandal for Clinton between now and election day.

Unlikely, considering there's one every other day

Repeating the same thing every other day doesn't count.