If we're to believe anything Musk has been ranting about for the past 15 years, then he at least has the intention, if not the potential means.
If I recall correctly, the first stage of the "moon race" was more generalized, especially to the press. Also Musk himself has a pretty strong history of not sharing much of the meat of a plan till it happens.
So I look at the issues which made Mars 'hard' a while ago, and whether or not they're solved or if Musk is on the way to solving them. Micrometeorite shielding. Not solved Radiation shielding. Not solved Long term microgravity health effects. Not solved Sufficient understanding of the human microbiome to keep it thriving off-world. Not even addressed
Guys, we've got to beat the dragon masters to Mars! There's no telling how much swooping they'll do from that high!
I just don't see Boeing being able to do this. They've gotten fat on US government defense dollars, they're not going to be able to do anything outside the ordinary, because they'll risk losing those sweet, sweet defense billions. That is, if they can compete with SpaceX,the Air Force will ask why ULA can't do better while it's on the Air Force nickel. That will cause Boeing to shy away from any innovation that the Air Force doesn't overpay for.