>That puts black at about 2.5 as likely as white.
You are ignoring the representation of blacks in violent crimes, where they are disproportionately highly represented [0]. If a population represents between 30% and 50% of the violent crime, you would expect them to represent between 30% and 50% of the police shootings, no?
[0]: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-...