This, IMHO, is a really bad example.
This is pretty much just a few days of sitting in GDB for the right engineer[1]. Now, maybe it require people experienced with debugging tools, but it's really not "hard tech". Now, productionizing it so it works on all versions, yeah, a bit trickier. but again, none of this is at the level of basically "understanding how to make custom bacteria that do a thing", etc. If this is the example you mean for "did stuff people assumed was impossible", then i strongly disagree.
""Software where you need to use scientific-method trial-and-error to build core pieces of the product.""
This, IMHO, is way too low a bar. By this definition, the clang compiler we built for windows is "hard-tech". While it requires time and energy and trial and error, that is not hard, in the same way the dropbox stuff is not hard.
It is known that it is possible, and requires the reasonable application of good engineering skill. That engineering skill may often involve the scientific method trial-and-error, but you know you will eventually get there.
The same is true of dropbox, and in particular, your finder example. The only thing unknown is the timeline, and even that you can take a reasonable stab at if you have good enough engineers.
[1] I did it before they did, and i wasn't even the first. Plenty of people have made this happen :)