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I would argue otherwise.

Alcohol (especially wine) is very easy and cheap to make at home but the Liquor Control Board of Ontario still managed to pull in $1.8 billion last year taxing it.

I don't think it's the home brewing equivalent that is the risk. It's more about the relative profits of corn vs marijuana in the midwest. If we were to fully legalize, I would expect that marijuana would have to get at least as cheap as alternative crops.

Don't ignore the cost of all the regulations marijuana has in addition to regular crops - for growers, transporters, and sellers.

I wouldn't. MJ in a lot of places has gotten like "craft beer": there's an endless number of varieties and strains, growers put a lot of effort into creating new strains and growing them as optimally as possible (like using hydroponics), different varieties are claimed to have different effects, etc. You don't need kilograms of it, but there is every indication that a lot of it will be very valuable, just like many fine wines are very, very expensive per bottle and many fine imported cheeses are extremely expensive.