That's what they say in every 1:1 but when you get to see how the sausage is made in the annual OLR you quickly realize that people who are deemed to have no hope of getting promoted to PE end up in the bottom right or middle right boxes of the infamous "9 box" ranking grid and are given hints to move on. Most people in that position move on anyway, as they end up getting low or no RSU refreshes due to their low "growth potential" (one of the 3 ratings that are used in the stack ranking process - the other two are communicated to the employee but the growth potential is not).

I can think of very, very few SDE3s I came across at Amazon who had 12+ years of experience, and of those some did eventually get promoted to PE. I feel fairly confident in saying you won't find any statistically significant number of SDE3s with "a lot more than 10 years there".