> The barrier is in the sequential part of the topicpbhjpbhj's point still stands -- the question is "supremely facile" once you get past matters of syntax. For example, most third graders could solve the problem when you make the time indexing explicit:
a(1) = 10 and b(1) is undefined.
a(2) = a(1) and b(2) = 20.
b(3) = b(2) and a(3) = b(3).
What is the value of a(3) and b(3)?
We can go a step further for students still struggling by associating to each variable at each time step a fresh variable (bonus: when they see SSA it'll be a breeze):
Q = 10
W is undefined
R = Q
T = 20
Y = T
U = Y
What are the values of Y and U?
I've had students for whom even this didn't work, so I definitely don't believe "everyone can code". But still, if 30 - 60% of your students can't solve this problem, then there's something very wrong with the way the course is being managed, because I don't even get
close to that percentage with sixth graders. Of course, I take the time to explain in excruciating detail what the symbols mean.
So if I had to bet, it means that no one is sitting down and taking the time to help students get up to speed on the meaning of the syntax for this huge engineered system that was just thrown at them. Which is a real shame, because having these sorts of difficulties early in an intro course is, IME, completely uncorrelated with how the student will do throughout the rest of the curriculum.
You see the same thing when tutoring for early mathematics courses -- most students in the bottom of the distribution are having difficulty because some historical-cruft syntax is presented and not properly explained in lecture. Unsurprisingly, if no one bothers to explain what the hell the symbols mean, three more weeks of using the symbols to do more complicated stuff isn't particularly useful. So lack of movement among the groups isn't surprising, but reading off from that anything other than lack of sufficiently differentiated instruction is a fool's errand.
> Requiring prior exposure to succeed in a degree is an oddity
1. This is obviously not true for any of the natural sciences or for mathematics. It's also not true for English -- students have already done a lot of reading and essay writing by the time they get to college. Maybe it's a little more true for engineering fields, but at least there students are expected to have some background in math and physics. Oh, and also, typically take some university-level science and math alongside or prior to their serious engineering courses.
2. Requiring the mastery of large engineered systems during the first week or day of a course is also an extreme oddity.