Uber doesn't appear to be any more overvalued than stocks and bonds, broadly. It may be a big gamble but so is buying $1 billion of bonds that yield .25%.
Wait, what? Is that really the goal? Is that even legal? I guess the closest approximation of that is legal monopolies for companies like the telecoms and maybe utilities like electricity & gas, but I doubt if Uber et al. want to be treated like that?
In theory, with autonomous vehicles, public transportation will be 10x what it is today. Maybe even 100x if private vehicle ownership goes the way of the dodo.
Their Otto aquisition signals an interest in shipping. With the right kind of network effect, they could be in charge of everything that moves. You can't get to that kind of scale unless you merge with the state.
That's the plan, anyhow. We'll see how it plays out.
Uber has the same kinds of advantages that Google, Amazon, Facebook and Starbucks have in their respective domains.
Scale is a competitive advantage in homogeneous markets. But even if you're the most efficient ride facilitator on the streets of New York, this does very little to someone looking for a ride in Des Moines or San Sebastian.
I don't see any way its current businesses (e.g. app-based taxi service, food delivery, etc.) justify its valuation. The question then is whether reliable fully-autonomous cars are 2 years out, 10 years out, or more; even the experts can't agree. Uber needs it more than Google needs it, more than Tesla, more than anybody.
Volvo can just license the Dominoes app and have the same technology backbone Uber has, plus cheesy bread.
Sidenote: I thought of another market segment to compete in: AirBNB! Except instead of daily rentals it'll be half-hourly rentals. Brilliant!
Ignore those pesky anti-prostitution laws. They're outdated regulations that just stifle the market. Plenty of guys named John that just need a bed for 30 minutes or less.