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Comment by piedradura | Hacker News Reader

I would add another multiplicative factor: the probability that you have success in what you are trying to achieve, if that probability is near zero you effort will be in vain.

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you should read some Taleb on this subject. ignoring low probability outcomes is not a good risk/success model.

I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book:

That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is literally a case where you are "betting your (future) life" on the low probability outcome event.

I mean, what is your hedge in that case? Does Taleb talk about that too?

The problem with low probability outcome events is that when you repeat the same experiment many times that event can happen with high probability.

I think you should just read the book(s). They're very well written and enlightening.

I guess a hedge in that case would be to try to arrange things so they come out OK if you miss the goal. Like if you want to be president aim for the fail case being a successful lesser politician. Not sure what Taleb says.

Taleb investment advice: put almost all of your savings in super stable investments, like treasuries. Use the rest to bet on unicorn startups, or highly leveraged options (as long as those options have a limited downside and an unlimited upside!). I'm not quite sure how to apply this to one's career.

Yes, and I believe Sam brought that up later in the conversation.

Estimating this is probably futile, but in principle, I agree.

A viability study is not something to reject.

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