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Comment by sremani | Hacker News Reader

US will not sink during my life time (2050?). The odds are so decked in US's favor. As Ian Bremmer said, what makes America great is, two oceans, canada and mexico.

The turmoil in Eurasian continent and Population explosion in Africa when you compared to improved peace in Americas. I will bet by shirt on Americas in general and USA in particular. No, Sir China is not going to touch US in military terms during my life time and probably have some economic benchmarks they may dominate but per-capita will suck. For all the hew and cry, China is middle-income nation with 17 neighbors, Middle East even with Petro-dollars in basket case, Europe is demographically falling and struggling with Immigration.

America will remain the power to reckon for next 50 years if not more.

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You're in for a rude awakening if you think "China is not going to touch US in military terms during my life time"

Most people believe that the US will always have the better fighter planes, the better missiles, or the better tanks. In reality, we are about to be parity. They will be stronger in some aspects, we will be stronger in others.

If you don't believe me, go check out the Chinese J-20, J-31 aircraft. Their DF-41 ICBM. The Type-99 tank.

They have been catching, and fast. They already have some systems that are better than ours. They also have twice as many soldiers/sailors/airmen/marines.

Source: Former Intelligence Analyst.

2050 : their Navy will not be close to US. Currently their Navy is not even close to Japan. Power projection on Earth in 20th century and 21st century is about Maritime. That may change. Chinese may finally master flying saucers and make some of the previous structure irrelevant, but that is unlikely for now.

But if I you were interested in countries and power, I would not focus on J-20 or J-31 but the current purges and anti-corruption drive in China. The most interesting question about China in 2035 is, how will communist party hold power now on.

Their Navy will be closer than you think. Take a look at the rate they are building ships. Their destroyer squadrons (Luyang II and III are amazing ships) have been rapidly growing, as well as their replinishment ships, subs, frigates, and smaller boats. These DDGs and supply ships are the foundations of a CSG. You're right they only have one carrier at the moment, and its only used for training. But this is their modus operandi: Buy something already built, reverse engineer it, tailor to our needs, mass produce. They have 30 years to manufacture 10 more carriers (and associated ships) to reach the power project with the current US Navy. If they continue at their current rate, they will easily reach that.

I don't know where you're getting the notion that the Chinese navy doesn't compare to Japan, because its stronger/larger in every measurable way. Are you accounting for the 30+ ships the Chinese navy has been building every year recently? I would agree with that statement six years ago.

You are absolutely correct: The most interesting question is can they sustain their current output. Will the party hold up?

Their navy doesn't have to get close to the US because it isn't spread so thin around the world.

If China gets to the point they're actually a military threat to the US, they'll be so busy trying not to go to war with Russia it won't matter. The only reason Russia and China get along right now is because neither is happy about being second fiddle to the US. Eventually their focus will turn on one another.

Which is why measuring military is a moot point when comparing economies between major world powers.

Economic battles are fought through puppets (Syria, Iran/Iraq, Koreas, etc.), not between the major powers themselves, thanks to nuclear proliferation.

Well first before looking at military strength there has to be a motivation by China to want to attack the US. What in the next 50 years would make china interested in attacking the US? In what way would it benefit?

Kinda 20th century thinking. Military might is important, yes, but economically things are too dependent upon one another. All it is going to take is global pop culture to shift away from Americanism to whatever flavor is next (probably some Asian cross cultural identity). Then the USA and our economy too dependent upon cultural exports will kinda run dry, and boobs like Trump will become more common. It's gonna be a shit show. (Actually, already is!)

No it is not 20th century thinking, Mexico and some other countries in Latin America are becoming the workshop of the Americas. Once China firmly transforms into middle income country, the global supply chain will look else where for cheaper labor. But with 3D printing and high automation many factory floors will return to US or will be closer to US than China.

China has more basic problems, their coastal provinces are prosperous and their interior is not, and they have their own centrifugal forces. Long story short, you are overestimating america's problems and underestimating China's problems.

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