Joe Sutter, who guided creation of the Boeing 747, has died
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Airlines loved the 747, because it was a money-making machine for them, too. Nobody could compete with the 747 for decades.
The 747 provided the technology and the money to develop the 757, 767, etc.
I went to Disneyland for the first time in 1979, and the E ticket was in use then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E_ticket
> I don’t know if a Garden of Eden awaits adults in the hereafter. I do know, though, that there is a Garden of Eden for children here in this life. I know because I myself visited this paradise. I have just returned from there, just passed through its gates, just left the magical kingdom known as Disneyland. And as I bid that kingdom farewell, I understood for the first time the true meaning of the French saying ‘to leave is to die a little’ [partir, c’est mourir un peu]
For a theme park--of all things--to create that sort of effect on its visitors is nothing short of remarkable.
0. http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-arts-and-culture/206125/elie...
Hoo boy
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/read-john-hughes-o...
and the no-celebrities-harmed film adaptation "Vacation".
I'm doing a lot of worldview refactoring, reading and thinking on many subjects and topics. As I start assimilating new models and references, I'm going back to older sources and revisiting them in light of the new models I've been acquiring and developing.
The effect can be profound, with many "familiar" works suddenly taking on highly unexpected dimensions.
My own first exposure to "E-Ticket" came from Julie Brown's "The Homecoming Queen's got a Gun"
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xG3yGdQYwqg
(A song and video which probably wouldn't fly today.)
If you take "worldview" to be the aggregate of models, premises, axioms, rules-of-thumb, personal and cultural context, etc., etc., you end up with a pretty hairy melenge of crud.
Some of it is useful and accurate. A lot of it isn't. (All models are wrong, some are useful.) Almost all of it has very strong path dependencies. Language itself is problematic as we define things in terms of other things, and if all the ground is soft and/or unstable, then that shifts.
I'm looking at ideas involving progress, models, institutions, limits, and interactions among them. I've been thinking for a while of adding "values" to that list as well.
There are large constraints in discussing this with others, particularly as much of the thinking is novel (though as I dig through dusty and rusty corners I'm finding I'm reinventing a lot of ideas previously considered -- something I find heartening), but moreso, that those who hold the mainstream worldview are heavily vested in it.
There's an as-yet-unwritten essay on apocalyptic thinking. Not in the sense of fire-from-the-sky the world will explode meaning, but in that the roots of the words "revelation", "enlightenment", "apocalypse", "catastrophe", and "revolution", among others, refer to an overturning. "The scales dropped from my eyes". There's a Cupertino mystic I bumped across online (no, not Steve Jobs) who has a really expressive little bit that enlightenment is not in the least comforting. Or to borrow from Arthur C. Clarke's title -- it's a childhood's end.
Solidifying a bit, I'm finding the ecologists far more convincing and reality-based than (most of) the economists. Howard Odum, William Ophuls, Vaclav Smil, Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen (economist), Herman Daly (ecological economist). But the roots of economic thought, in particular 18th and 19th century, are also pretty fascinating. There's Steuart (almost wholly ignored by Smith), and as a recently discovered example, T. E. Cliffe Leslie, "The Political Economy of Adam Smith" (1870), which does an excellent job of expressing what I've been trying to put my finger on about economics (and all philosophy) being grounded in specific circumstances.
http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/econ/ugcm/3ll3/leslie/leslie01.ht...
No branch of philosophical doctrine, indeed, can be fairly investigated or apprehended apart from its history. All our systems of politics, morals, and metaphysics would be different if we knew exactly how they grew up, and what transformations they have undergone; if we knew, in short, the true history of human ideas. And the history of political economy, at any rate, is not lost. It would not be difficult to trace the connection between every extant treatise prior to the `Wealth of Nations,' and conditions of thought at the epoch at which it appeared. But there is the less occasion, for the purpose of these pages, or of ascertaining the origin and foundation of the economic doctrines of our own day, to go behind the epoch of Adam Smith, that he has himself traced the systems of political economy antecedent to his own to a particular course of history, to `the different progress of opulence in different ages and nations,' and `the private interests and prejudices of particular orders of men.' What he did not see was, that his own system, in its turn, was the product of a particular history; that what he regarded as the System of Nature was a descendant of the System of Nature as conceived by the ancients, in a form fashioned by the ideas and circumstances of his own time, and. coloured by his own disposition and course of life. Still less could he see how, after his time, `the progress of opulence' would govern the interpretation of his doctrines, or how the system he promulgated as the system of liberty, justice, and divine benevolence, would be moulded into a system of selfishness by `the private interests and prejudices of particular orders of men.'
Also claimed is that Smith is entirely deductive. I'm not so convinced of this (Smith actually does cite observations and behaviour frequently), though it is true in parts, and most true in those parts of Smith that are most widely and loudly championed today, particularly the wholly fabricated notion that an "Invisible Hand" is some mechanism by which markets operate. It's not mechanism but apparent outcome, an outcome, it turns out from much subsequent studies. fantastically sensitive to actual conditions, and not in the least guaranteed. (See epecially Joseph Stiglitz.)
Anyhow, small bits. But yes, I'm running an abattoir for sacred cows and received truths.
The linked subbreddit (above) is where I'm exploring much of that. Conversation spills out in other places, including HN.
Quite the opposite for most of the 1970s and much of the 1980s. Many smaller national airlines such as Aer Lingus, Air Canada and Sabena bought the 747 for the 'prestige' and its range, but struggled to make any money from it and eventually ditched it for smaller trijets and twins.
KLM managed to keep going by flying them in Combi configuration with half of the main deck given over to cargo.
For the first wide body, why not start with something 767 sized? Why start with the biggest?
Sutter claimed that thanks to redundant design the 747 had zero flight safety-critical parts. I have never been able to confirm this independently but it has stuck with me ever since. Anyway, he instantly cut through the prevailing NASA propaganda that the shuttle was the beginning of regular travel to low-earth orbit. It was a great talk by a great engineer.
[1] http://www.faa-aircraft-certification.com/faa-definitions.ht....
And the fact that basically on a whim, I can buy a ticket, show up at an airport, wait a bit, sit on a plane for a while, and then basically show up on the other side of the world in a few hours, what it used to take humans months, or even years, to do, when it became possible at all.
So yeah; from someone who's a geek about it, but outside of the aviation industry: it's cool.
I aways remember this bit by Louis CK about flying. It is just so true.
I highly recommend trying to get a seat up there as well. It has less seats than a regional jet in a coach config, and you feel completely isolated from the chaos below.
It throwns over the museum. You can climb the stairs all the way up and see the inner workings of the fuselage and walk on the wing.
I read the opinion of an aeronautical engineer that the 747 gets its grace from physics, while the A380 goes a little against physics. Apparently, its wings are a little too short for its heft, but the engineers made it work. This is why it costs 50% more to operate per nautical mile, while having 700 nm less range. (Than the 747-8I)
Is that a useful metric? Cost per passenger mile is what matters.
The A380 is larger then the 747, one would expect it to cost more to fly.
I do think the 747 is nicer-looking. The nose of the A380 just doesn't work aesthetically.
- it went from an idea on a gold course to engineering prototype in 2.5 years in an era almost without computers
- Boeing had to build what I believe is the world's largest building to make them
- Boeing saw the 747 as a stopgap while their main focus was on the (doomed SST so Sutter had to try to go any resources. With the SST's cancellation and huge development cost it almost bankrupted Boeing.
- all of this was before simulators so they basically had to build one and take off and see how it flew or even if it flew.
- for much of the development there were no engines powerful enough to fly it, eventually a Pratt and Whitney prototype was used that had a nasty habit of exploding for over a year of flight testing before they figured out why. Nowadays engines are so reliable that the four engine design is essentially dead and many planes will serve their entire life never having their engines replaced.
- the distinctive (now iconic) design with the cockpit and upper deck bulging at the front was to fulfill a dual purpose as a cargo plane. You open up the nose and still get the full body height to load and remove cargo.
- when Boeing agreed to make it (because of a Pan Am request) they had no idea what it would look like.
I think the show was an episode of Mighty Aircraft. Well worth watching.
RIP joe Sutter.
http://www.smithsonianchannel.com/shows/747-the-jumbo-revolu...
Absolutely true. It's one of the most beautiful machines of the world, and unlike the Eiffel tower or the great pyramids, it serves a purpose; it's a tool, and the nicest one.
One morning in 1992 I drove a friend to JFK; when he departed, I spent the rest of the day watching 747s take off and land; I just couldn't leave the spot. It was a great day.
> In 1986 President Ronald Reagan appointed him to a panel investigating the explosion of the space shuttle Challenger.
Richard Feynman was a member of this panel; I wonder if the two got along well?
I would guess that engines powerful and efficient enough to fly a plane so much larger than any predecessors, and to fly it further, would also be a significant achievement.
Is that because most new technologies eventually reach plateaus? Or have unique factors -- like environmental concerns about supersonic travel -- held back progress in aviation?
Peter Thiel says it's caused by pessimism, and that's a much better explanation.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/530901/technology-stalled...
(I'm not related unfortunately. Joe Sutter's father Frank Sutter was born Franc Suhadolc in Slovenia)
The same thing applies in a much bigger way to travel to low-earth orbit. Costs escalate dramatically.
The 747-400 costs $47.34 per nautical mile, the 787-8 only $27.35. Sure it's not as visible to the passengers (except indirectly in the form of cheaper tickets), but that is a huge improvement in an important metric.
Meanwhile many 747s are only in service now because fuel prices are relatively low. Once the prices go up they will likely be replaced by 777s or other models that are easier to fill up and cost less to operated.
I confirmed this recently with a United Airlines 747 trainer who was booked on the same 747 flight as I was. He loved the plane and didn't want to fly anything else.
So it's definitely rare. Personally I love 777s--part of the attraction is the monster turbofans. Most long-range models have GE90 engines, which are total beasts. They incidentally have extremely low shutdown rates.
The 777 is my favorite also, it's a beautiful well-designed and well-built plane with an almost unbelievable safety record. (Barring being sabotaged by the pilot, or being shot down by a surface-to-air missile, which are hardly things you can blame on the aircraft itself.)
Still have not flown in a 787 as I mostly fly United and they don't have too many of them in the fleet yet. Ironically it's mostly 747s on the routes I regularly fly to Europe so I get to experience them regularly along with the odd A-380. (The latter a comfortable ride but just no poetry in the thing. It looks like a squashed frog.)
Note that Rolls Royce faces stiff competition with chiefly General Electric as the engine supplier for the 777 line.
Thus, the values would be about $11 for the 747-400. 6.37 for the 787-8.
In addition, at the $6 gallon rate, the newer 3rd generation 747, the 747-8 which uses the same engines (and I believe redesigned wings consistent with the 787-8) as the 787-8 is $42.49 compared with $47.34 for the older 747-400.
At the current $1.39 YTD per gallon price, the 747-8 costs $9.85 per nautical mile.
When you think about it, those are enormous gains, but the passengers don't see it other than in the ticket price.
That said, apparently Airbus doesn't agree that 4-engined planes are going extinct, because they just recently finished a brand-new jet, the A-380, which requires 4 engines to fly. Go figure. Time will tell if that was a wise move on their part. But I'm guessing: no.
- People got quite nervous about the risks. Sure, there were a lot of highly publicised accidents involving aircraft, but it's still a heck of a lot safer than driving a similar distance (and especially motorcycling). For some reason, the whole world has decided that flying needs to be a huge amount safer than the alternatives, and that has a huge cost.
- Terrorists. You could imagine a world where taking a flight was like taking a bus. It has certain similarities, right? But thanks to various events, everyone's got to go through the security theatre each time they're at an airport. That creates costs.
- Oil prices and environment. Just about when the Concord was getting in the air, oil prices went up. More recently, we've figured out it might not be so wise to put more CO2 in the air. Costs go up.
- Industry organisation. For some reason, a lot of countries decided they needed their own airlines. That's not necessarily economically viable, because a lot of countries are quite small. But there's a whole system of these airlines now, some subsidised, that fragment the industry. I don't know enough about whether there should be fewer airlines, but it certainly feels like it's something that is harder to evolve when various countries are propping up their local carrier.
As for the tech, why shouldn't it just progress? All those costs I've listed would suck money out of research. If things were a bit different, there'd be more people looking at making better planes.
But prices have dropped steeply, democratising air travel to an unprecedented degree with an unprecedented speed. Practically anyone who can afford to go on holiday at all can afford to fly somewhere, rather than being limited to the range/speed of ground transportation. The kind of trips to Greece/Spain etc that are completely routine these days in northern Europe were once-in-a-lifetime experiences for my (reasonably well to do) grandparents.
Everybody loves hating on Ryanair/Spirit Airlines/increasingly dense economy class layouts, but the fact is that you can in many cases (if you're out early) buy a discounted premium economy ticket (or even if you're lucky business class) for what regular economy tickets would cost just 20 years ago, much less 40, and get a much better product.
It starts out flat, then goes near vertical as the idea catch on and all the low handing developments are plucked and marketed.
then it flattens out again as new developments becomes harder, and the market consolidates.
Flight seems to have hit that second flat around the time of the Concorde and the 747.
And electronics seems to be hitting it right now.
I don't want to return to those days but if we had to build software that way it would be much more reliable. It would take longer and have much less functionality too of course.
Before it became a regular sight, there was speculation as to whether or not the A380 was 'too big' for Gatwick
Consider the A380: it can only fly into airports that have been modified/built for them; takes forever to load/unload passengers, and only works for a few long haul routes. Most airlines are losing money on it (few are in the Qantas/Emirates mode) and thus the order book is not strong. I doubt anyone will build a larger plane.
Indeed, I often think the choice of jet for AF-1 was chosen for that reason, Mach 1 capability.