The Black Sea has lost more than a third of its habitable volume
sciencebulletin.org
sciencebulletin.org
In discussing the changes in the Black Sea, it should be noted that Russia is heavily invested in fossil fuel production, and that Putin denies the reality of anthropocentric global climate change. This leads me to the possibility that the purpose of your comment is to divert criticism of Russia. Of course, that idea might be mistaken, and you honestly just misunderstood the article.
Furthermore, the US and China are strongly promoting renewable energy to replace fossil fuels. Russia is doing almost nothing along these lines (think of all the renewable energy stories you see here at HN. None of them are about Russia).
Here's a link on the coverage of global climate change by the state-controlled Russian media: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-summit-russi...
By the way, American conservatives are completely opposed to Putin and Russia (except for Donald Trump, who is very friendly). But in this issue they are in complete agreement.
A lot more land becomes arable. Trade routes don't freeze over as much. Countries with political enemies may get destabilized from immigration.
To start, Putin grew up and had his career in the old communist Soviet Union, and has made clear he thought it was absolutely wonderful. Now the USSR was a superpower, with 350 million people, the world's second largest economy, a military equal to that of the US, and it controlled Eastern Europe through communist puppet governments.
Then in 1989-91, the Eastern European nations threw out the communist governments and broke away, communism was abandoned, all the non-Russian republics broke away from the USSR, and the military declined drastically. Now Russia has only 145 million people, much less territory, no solid allies except Bylarus, a military about one-fifth the strength of the US, and it's economy is ranked 10th in size.
Putin has made clear that he wants to get back to superpower status, and to do that he has to take back a lot of territory, either through incorporation into Russia or as allies. He can't do that with the Central Asian former Soviet republics, partly because they are semi-allies of China. So he is trying to expand westward, and doesn't care at all that most of the population of the Eastern European nations want to stay aligned with the West.
And to do this he uses various means such as military threats, sending in military forces, trying to undermine democratic governments through supporting extreme left and right wing parties, and a massive internet trolling campaign.
Well, that is my view. What is your view? Where do you think Putin is trying to go in the long term, and what sort of means do you think he uses?
Putin had a chance to take most of Ukraine back or at least try to do it. This is late '14, Ukrainians taking hold on separatist "people's republics" of Donetsk and Lugansk. They use artillery against populated areas, lots of civian casualties. The memory of Odessa massacre is still vivid. He has broad support back home to end it all. He has grassroot support in Kharkov and Odessa regions (connect them on the map and see how much of Ukraine is left). He's still holding arguably legitimate Ukrainian president for god's sake!
Ukraine army was still weak and disoriented, he had a chance of dealing a massive blow and overrunning most of the country, and he blew it!
Now, fast forward two years. Can we seriously talk about Putin expanding into Eastern Europe proper if he's unable to take Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine? How he would ever do that? Belarus wipes its feet with Putin, EU sanctions against it are all lifted. Kazakhstan improves ties with China and gets wary of Putin too. In the end he sublimates the inability to tackle Ukraine in his petty TV war in Syria.
Yes, he does use military threats, sending in military forces, trying to undermine democratic governments through supporting extreme left and right wing parties, and a massive internet trolling campaign. No, that won't get him very far, considering he's old and didn't have balls to take a bite at Ukraine. Perhaps he never wanted to. Of course he's bitter about Russia's decline, but he likes his little throne and oligarch friends and doesn't want to risk all that.
Summary: We can only talk about Putin expanding into Eastern Europe when he figures out Ukraine. Not earlier.
The broader picture, as you indicate, is yes, he is imperialistic and nasty, but he hasn't gotten very far and probably won't in the future if the West stays united against him. Oh, and that is one reason he has this massive online troll campaign, it is to confuse and weaken the West.
Lets remember this whole discussion started because I said that Putin has a zero-sum, win-lose view of international relations, and people said my view was just speculation, so I elaborated it, and you are giving further confirmation.
Let me add that Putin's win-lose approach to the rest of the world is in part because he is a Russian, and as a consequence of Russian history he sees the world as a constant struggle of nations where you either defeat your enemies or are defeated yourself. This means it is best to strike first and grab as much land and power as possible.
Just as in economics, Russia has never figured out that in the modern, especially post-WWII and nuclear world, things have moved to a considerably more secure and win-win sort of situation. So Putin and the Russians have this wacky belief that the US is out to conquer Russia and turn it into a colony, whereas actually the US would just like to have reasonably peaceful relations.
It's what recent history teaches to Russia. People kind of expected that peaceful end of the cold war is a good thing, but it turned out that USA & Western Europe won and Russia lost. And now US politics has audacity to poke in russians' faces with this "fact". It was win-lose.
After that, on 2000-s, Russia sought to enter WTO, even join NATO, and streighten ties with EU. But it mostly got humiliation and shown the door. It wasn't win-win.
Now, it's quire easy to learn that win-win scenarios don't work and win-lose do, and you want to be on a right side of win-lose.
And I wold argue that win-win fails to perform in modern world. It's now more like lose-lose. Iraq? Syria (for all parties including Russia)? Lose-lose. Even international trade starts to show this character.
But after all that said, speculating on peoples' beliefs instead of facts is always opinionated.
Russia, from all I have read, never wanted to join NATO
https://www.quora.com/Russia-Why-has-Russia-never-joined-NAT...
https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/5-reasons-why-russia-wil...
As for criticizing Russia because it it is corrupt and authoritarian, free speech is just part of how the modern world works. I myself am very critical about the US in many ways.
You are right, a lot of the relations in the world today are win-lose. But Syria is hardly a modern democratic industrialized state. Or take the complicated case of China and Russia, which is cooperative in many ways, and hostile in others.
Putin, his whole life, has never been a win-win guy, from all I have read. Yeltsin was a mess. So I am dubious when I hear that Russia wanted to be friendly and cooperative, and the West repulsed him.
As far as the Russian people's beliefs go, I have read lots from experts on how they see the world.
Russia briefly explored possibility of joining NATO but was met with cold stares and disengaged.
Russia opted for e.g. visa waiver with Schengen area (EU), but that got nowhere in ten years.
Regarding win-win guys, after a few years in early 90s it became impossible for a Russian to be one. It was vividly shown that "the night is dark and full of terrors".
Guard-of-terra, let me ask you some questions. First, what do you think Putin's long term goals are, and how long do you think he has had them? Does he want to take Eastern Europe back, and has wanted this since it was lost back in 1989, or has he come to this goal only in the last few years, or would he be happy if it remained aligned with the West?
Also, what do you think the West's goals are? Do you think that ever since 1991 it has wanted to conquer Russia, or at least make it poor, weak, and subservient? Or do you think that starting in 1991 it wanted to Russia to be democratic, independent, and prosperous, and only later became hostile toward it as a response to Putin's rhetoric and actions? Or perhaps you have some third view.
I think that Putin's long term goals is sitting on the throne and avoiding violence against himself and his buddies. Everything else is "nice to have". Futhermore, there's two Eastern Europes that are no longer smart to compound (Russia is Eastern Europe too for that matter, makes it three):
- Non-USSR non-Russian-speaking ex-socialist countries, who're already consumed by EU. - Ex-USSR mostly-Russian-speaking ex-communist republics, who are/were in CIS.
Baltic states are somewhat in-between.
I think that since 1991 the West did not care about Russia. They looted the corpse basically. And they didn't give a shit about Russia until the corpse in question began moving.
They definitely didn't lift too many fingers towards "Russia to be democratic, independent, and prosperous".
As for "poor, weak, and subservient", that's the default state of things on planet Earth (entropy?) so you don't need master plan to attain it.
(That's country level, right. My expectations on international politics are bearish)
Things becoming better are not impossible, but improbable. The outlook isn't bright. Too many things to be fixed and no popular will to do so. The situation with global Muslim migration (and disregard of social progress) is especially dangerous and can ruin everything quick.
First of all, no one cares about "a lot more land becomes arable", because even existing arable land is not fully used - there's already a lot of it, which allowed after transition to market economy after collapse of Soviet Union to increase agricultural production significantly and there are still unused thousands of square kilometers on Far East.
60% of Russian territory is a permafrost zone. Global warming dramatically changes the geology of this area, which has a lot of complications for construction and may severely damage existing infrastructure (including oil and gas pipes). This is well-known and recognized danger here.
Then, immigration. There's already water crisis in Middle Asia, which with population growth and rising Islamism in countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is a huge problem for Russian security. Remember, we have open borders and visa-free travel with them. Plus millions of Chinese guest workers on Far East (and that's even bigger security issue, because on Chinese side of the border situation with ecology is much worse). Immigration is a real concern for Russia itself and any global factors that affect everything are not really useful.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-summit-russi...
Let me add that Obama has long be quite concerned about GCC, and he has made this quite clear in numerous public speeches for many years. He has done this because he wants the US public and the world to know where he stands.
If Putin was likewise concerned, then you would expect him to make this similarly clear, and it would be easy to come up with quotes over many years on the web.
The link you've provided is an example of primitive and one-sided picture of Russia painted by some Western media, that does not even show any signs of fact-checking (interviewing few people from opposition and not asking for comments from Ministry of Environment - is that the way media work in USA or UK?). Please, note that I'm not a Putin's fan and never voted for him or his cronies. I'm writing this comment to help, because you were fed with BS and here's the advice: do not trust even well-known and respected media, when they are writing about "the rest of the world". They simply don't care to write the truth, because they will not be caught and sued.
The problem here is that what the article talks about are government plans in an authoritarian regime, and as we all know from the history of Russia and many other authoritarian nations, it is quite common for such plans to never be actually carried out.
You know, you yourself said you don't like Putin, but you seem to trust the stories his tightly-controlled media put out on what Russia is doing about the environment and renewable energy. It seems to me that is rather contradictory.
1. Energy efficiency: state corporation Rusnano (investment fund for supporting high tech manufacturing and research in nanotechnology and related fields) invested in manufacturing of LED lighting http://en.rusnano.com/portfolio/companies/optogan Meanwhile, Ministry of Energy gradually implements ban for manufacturing of 60W and higher light bulbs (100W already banned) and prohibition of use of such bulbs in state and municipal offices.
2. Renewable energy: Burbai Solar Plant launched in Dec 2015 by Rusnano, Hevel and Renova. 70% of components manufactured in Russia. http://en.rusnano.com/press-centre/news/20151102-rusnano-hev...
To start, I said we don't see links here at HN about renewable energy in Russia because nothing is going on. You replied that lots is, and the reason we don't see stories is because the US and UK media is biased against Russia.
But HN also publishes many links on renewable energy from scientific and technology industry sources. Are you saying that they are likewise biased?
And how did that come about, like did the Obama administration send out a letter ordering all of them to never publish any such stories, and they all agreed? and none of the writers every published a complaint about this on the internet, even anonymously?
And how did the government get them to agree, did it tell them if they didn't go along, they would get a bullet in the head from a CIA agent?
And is this ban just for the US, or is it world wide? And when the many experts who are well aware these innumerable Russian renewable energy projects you claim exist complained, what did the editors say? "I'm sorry, but I can't comment on that issue?" And how did the government keep these experts from complaining online, like on their blogs? Did they threaten them too?
For those who would like to counter outrageous comments like ivan_gammel's, note what I am doing, namely working out in some detail the practicalities of what would be needed for the claim to be true. It usually then becomes clear it makes no sense.
Now for the questions, ivan_gammel.
First, when you made your claim, did you first work out the practicalities to see if it made any sense?
Second, now that I have done that, do you see how it sounds like a wacky conspiracy theory?
Finally, do you now agree that the claim doesn't make sense, and that the real reason we see no links at HN about Russian renewable energy projects is there aren't any, or at least very few? or do you still claim there are lots of these projects, and we don't see them here because of media bias?
Oh, and one more thing. The US media claims Putin is pretty awful, and you agree. So how did it come out they got it right on that, but get it all wrong on Russian renewable energy projects?
By the way, for some reason you have chosen about "renewable energy projects", but I've not been mentioning them alone (yes, they exist, but not as big as in many other places in the world and HN is not an industrial news bulletin to mention them). Environmentally friendly industrial policy consists not only of them and energy sector is not the only source of emissions.
You claim the media is uninterested in energy policy in Russia, but the scientific and technological media is very interested in such things, and HN is read mainly by techno-geeks who are also, and so we have lots and lots of links to articles from such sources.That includes global surveys that include Russia, and tech innovations from countries all over the world. And these stories includes complex nuances and try to be objective. So if anything was actually happening in Russia, you would see it here. But you don't and if this is not due to a conspiracy, then you need to come up with another explanation, and you can't.
As to why I am focusing on renewable energy, it is because you yourself linked to a wikipedia article on that very topic that, as I explain below, says very clearly that very little is going on in that area in Russia.
As to asking for replies, I ask that partly to make sure I have understood you properly.
Regarding the media, the lack of news in English is surprising a bit, because I see here and there that something indeed is going on and can confirm it by examples of projects I'm aware of (and likely there are more that I'm not). I can see the simplification bias in general media, which can be explained by lack of interest to post-Soviet Russia (and I've seen publications explaining this with reduced financing of research of Russia in USA - one of the reasons why events in Ukraine were a big surprise for US government). As for scientific and technological media, one of the reasons can be the obscurity of Russian science and inexperience of the government in PR. I cannot find any traces of Buribay solar plant launch in non-Russian or-non solar energy media - how exactly could that happen? I can suggest only that such events and their coverage is not sexy enough for HN/Wired/whatever to be remembered or even discussed. And this project is not small, behind it are very strong businesses like Renova and Rusnano. Can you offer any other explanation beyond "nothing is happening"?
I tend to believe negative views of Russia because its government is, overall, so awful, so it would seem to me unlikely it would be doing anything positive in that area. And there is also the matter of the Putin direct quotes on global climate change.
Which leads me to ask you, what is the media in Russia, which says what Putin tells it to say, saying about global climate change nowadays?
That said, your information in other comments says the government has been doing some things in this area, but so far it seems to be only 5% or 10% of what the US and China are doing, much less what is needed to avoid catastrophe. Maybe Putin's government is now getting more serious and will step things up.
From what I understand (which may be mistaken), the odds of the first are very low, like 1%, the third are maybe 20%, and so the most likely is the second.
You know a lot more about what is going on in Russia than I do, Ivan, so let me ask you, do you agree with my assessment, or is yours different, and if so, what are your reasons?
OECD report on standards: http://www.oecd.org/env/outreach/38118149.pdf See "Key findings" section - it summarizes the current progress and remaining issues with environmental policy. No wonder, most of them are deeply rooted in overall political climate and related to corruption, but, still, there's some progress and majority of ordinary people and in the government is really concerned with ecology and climate change.
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment: https://www.mnr.gov.ru/english/
There are many more sources in Russian, but it's hard to get a coherent view from them and harsh critics means more that people have very good understanding how it should be and push for more to be done, rather than that government ignores environmental issues like in some countries of South-East Asia, for example.
Between 1990 and 2013, CO2 emissions in the United states fell from 19.6 tons per capita to 16.6. That's around a 15.6% decrease.
Russia had a drop of around 23.5% in the same time frame.
China and India both had dramatic increases though.
http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=CO2ts_pc1990-20...
He makes this clear in the summary for his doctoral dissertation: http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/08/putins...
In Russia the only policy you can know for sure is the codified policy. Public statements cannot be treated seriously until they are codified, because very often they are made as means of information warfare, messages to specific groups of special interests. Look at the laws, court decisions, government orders etc. Sometimes you can figure out what's really going on only retrospectively, by looking at statistics and filtered stream of the news.
As to codified policy, Putin is an authoritarian ruler in a country with little rule of law, and so he does what he wants, no matter what the laws happen to say.
ivan_gammel, I strongly suspect that you are quite aware of all of this, and are attempting to mislead readers as to what Putin is up to and why.
Let me make one more comment. Putin believes that the road to becoming an advance industrial power is first spend a half a century focused on natural resource extraction, and only then turn to developing advanced industry. I think he is here trying to emulate his interpretation of the economic history of the UK and the US.
But this mistaken, and in two ways. First, in the US and the UK mineral extraction and industrial development proceeded in parallel, not sequentially. Secondly, more recently countries have industrialized by focusing on industry directly, and especially exports, as in the cases of Japan, China, and South Korea.
I think part of the problem here is that Putin greatly mistrusts industrialization that is successful enough to compete on global markets, because it requires independent commercial enterprises, and he is an authoritarian who wants to retain control of the economy, and this is much easier when you are focused on natural resource commodities.
In any case, the whole matter of Putin and his economic views just illustrates the general problem that Russians have never figured out how things work in the modern world, and are always trying to do things in ways that are still half back in the authoritarian, agrarian ways of their past. As a result they get off on paths that succeed for a few decades, but eventually stall out.
It's so sad, Russia could be such an amazing nation if it could just get on the right track.
The problem with Putin is his mind is still partly back in the pre-industrial era, and so he only half gets this. He knows Russia has to industrialize, but he still sees natural resources as being much more important than they really are, and so he is simply on the wrong economic track.
A key case here is petroleum. It accounts for half the Russian government's tax revenues, and it is central to Putin's plans and investments. But thanks to the renewable energy revolution, based on manufactured technologies like PV cells and giant wind turbines, in half a century petroleum will be largely replaced, and so worth very little. But Putin doesn't get this, which is why so little effort is being put into renewables.
Putin's mistake is not that it applies XVI century resource extraction approach to finally get industrial economy (which is not true because of above), but that it applies command-administrative methods of XX century to build post-industrial economy. He is more interested in playing war games, than writing economic strategies - this job is left to his advisers, and there's ongoing competition to fill that position between liberals like A.Kudrin and communists like S.Glazyev. These bureaucratic battles did not produce any document that could be fully implemented, so significant progress could be visible in only some technical fields, which are far from politics (hence very smart Central Bank, Federal Tax Service or Ministry of Informatization and Communications).
> Russia lost most of its industry in competition with China and hi-tech manufacturing to the West.
Congratulaions, you've managed to contradict yourself in one paragraph.
Usually, this shift in comparative advantage is reflected in industrial work moving overseas to competitors whose comparative advantage is in that kind of work.
So, the two sentences you quote as a supposed contradiction actually support each other, rather than contradicting each other.
In case of Russia it wasn't so, they still struggle to get back to Soviet level of industrialization after USSR fell apart.
The US keeps struggling to maintain or restore its previous level of industrialization, too, even though its unmistakeably a post-industrial state; there's a lot of emotional attachment to industrialization as a source of economic output that lingers even in post-industrial states, so struggling to restore it is a common response to dissatisfactory economic experiences even in post-industrial states. If Russia were struggling to get back to Soviet-era aggregate or per-capita economic output, that would be a difference -- and there certainly was a time, throughout much of the 1990s, where that was the case. But its not now (though Russia has seen a precipitous output drop since the peak in 2012, so it might be a thing again in not too long.)
(Russia may be in a situation now -- especially with the recent drop -- where living conditions for the masses are as bad or worse than in the late Soviet era, but that's orthogonal to the economy being post-industrial, and more about the distributional features of the economy than anything else.)
"In sociology, the post-industrial society is the stage of society's development when the service sector generates more wealth than the manufacturing sector of the economy"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-industrial_society
That doesn't apply to Russia, so ivan_gammel was using the term in an unconventional manner.
You mean anthropogenic, btw.
As you point out, there is consensus on the causes, first, excess nutrients from fertilization in the USSR, and second, decreased ventilation in the post-USSR period caused by climate change.
As to diverting criticism of Russia: BWA HA HA HA HA! That's funny. Little or nothing could provide greater proof of our not knowing each other. That's pretty funny. Wipes tear from eye.
But I also said it was possible there was another cause, and I see now that is the case. My apologies.