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"If history has taught us anything then that open always wins."

The web and unix-like OS's are the only two examples I can think of off the top of my head where open platforms have done well. Windows was closed, and its much more popular for consumer desktop apps and game development. Video game consoles are all closed and there are no open alternatives I'm aware of.

I'm not saying I don't think open might win in the long run, but I don't think I would agree that history has taught us that it always wins. Not yet anyway.

In fact, the iPhone/iPad is vastly more open than any game console: you can develop commercial applications for it on an almost level playing field with the largest title producers, and market your products on the same shelf as they do, at a tiny cost. What do pro dev kits for the X360 cost again?

Bad example, you can get on the XBox360 marketplace for $99 dollars these days.

The iphone was vastly more open than almost any phone before it was. Just android is completely open.

Give me a break. People writing XNA games are not on a level playing field --- at the platform level --- with people writing retail titles.

This is correct. The XNA framework for indie XBox 360 game development has serious technical limitations that set it apart from the "professional" development kit (which I am not able to obtain the price for, as I am not already an established game production company).

Being forced to write in managed code on top of a library of entirely managed code with an uncontrollable garbage collector is one technical issue off the top of my head.

I'm not sure you've heard about Symbian, it's only 47% of the smartphone market [1]. You can develop apps for Symbian and install them on your device very easily. Unless you are doing anything hardcore they can even be self-signed (since Symbian OS 9.1 released in 2005 apps have to be signed to be installed) as long as they don't need any hardcore capabilities.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone

Is Symbian to Nokia what XNA is to the X360?

I don't know, but Symbian does have the largest value share of the platforms at Nokia (S30/S40, Symbian, Maemo).

But the price part isn't relevant- iPhone is $99, the only advantage Android has right now is being on more carriers in the United States. All signs point to Verizon being up to bat in July, nixing that single advantage.

I'm not sure that open matters as much on a phone- the iPhone, as a 'kind of open' marketplace, is able to filter for quality and provide a more consistent interface for getting applications. Browsing the Android Market just isn't a good experience.

Open usually wins because better applications result- so far, that hasn't come even close to happening. The Android UI elements ensure nasty looking out of the box products without major tweaking, and the Mac designer culture has lead to beautiful interfaces for iPhone that aren't available anywhere else.

History's useful as a guide, but sometimes things happen that break the cycle- it's my belief that that is the case with iPhone OS.

Maybe I'm showing my age but the Android model is somewhat similar to what 3DO had in mind... single OS on multiple game console manufacturers and profit off the licensing fees. That didn't turn out too well.

I don't know what world you live in, but in mine, Apple is crushing Google, so I'm pretty sure that 99.9% of users don't care about the "progress" Google is making either.

The iPhone sold 25.4 million units last year (15% of the market share). There were 7.7 million Android units (8% of the market share) sold. As the first iPhone came out 1.25 years before the first Android phone, this is by no means a crushing. Android has only recently been advertised, most of that by Verizon (99% of my customers who ask about android ask about Droid, not Android).

The fact you can get android phones for free/cheap and on almost every carrier is likely enough to grant them a larger eventual marketshare than iPhoneOS. There are only so many AT&T subscribers (or people willing to be AT&T subscribers after that wiretapping thing and their poor performance in cities).

You can like the iPhone better (and I do) and still admit "Oh hey, Android phones are getting sold a lot these days".

Source: http://technorati.com/technology/android/article/nearly-8-mi...

How can 15% = 25.4 million while 8% = 7.7 million?

Yeah, looks like I had issues with copy pasting and rounding. Look at the article for real numbers.

I'm not sure what you mean by "crushing". As far as I know the battle has only begun a few months ago, and obviously apple-marketshare is dwarfing android marketshare today - android is the newcomer.

However, I think the simple problem that apple will be facing soon is that android undercuts them. You can buy android handsets in all price-ranges, whereas apple will probably want to keep the iPhone a premium item.

In consequence that means daddy is more likely to buy his daughter a $99 android for her first handset than a $499 iphone. And when that handset breaks she will be familiar with android, thus might tend to look at the higher range androids before the iPhone.

That's how the userbase is building already. And as we know, userbase means developer interest, developer interest means apps, apps mean improved experience. Improved experience eventually means trouble for the iPhone's unique selling point ("best expirience money can buy").

Where exactly do you come up with these prices? It is pretty easy hit apple.com and see that an iPhone 3G is $99 and a 3GS is $199. This is what is killing Android -- the supposed price differential no longer exists and so they have to go head-to-head with the iPhone on features and ecosystem. For the former the feature list on phones at these price points are pretty similar, and on the latter Android does indeed get "crushed" by the Apple ecosystem.

Excuse me?

The iPhone 3GS without contract starts at $499 today, almost 1 year after its release. The nexus was introduced at $529. A HTC Hero starts at around $345.

Wanna bet what the difference between the 3GS and nexus looks like in a year from now?

If you start looking into older models (G1 vs older generation iPhone) the difference becomes more dramatic, that's where I pulled the $99 figure from. You can already grab a G1 for around $100 on eBay. It won't be long before the new (and more worthwhile) low-end models enter that price-range.

That's when the trouble for apple starts. A G1 is obviously no competition for an iPhone of any generation, no matter the price-point. A droid or nexus in the sub-$200 range? Now that's a different story.

And yes, you can buy all phones with a 2 year contract to stretch out the cost. But that doesn't change the price difference and much less the trend that android handsets are racing for the bottom whereas the iPhone is (so far) firmly set in the premium segment.

You're betting on a wholesale restructuring of American phone pricing. As of today, phones are purchased with contract, and iPhones are being sold at the same price as Android phones. Unlocked iPhones are being sold at the same price as unlocked Android phones.

Thus far, Apple has shown a willingness to go for a volume pricing strategy- they aren't making the same pricing mistake twice. They're playing to win.

You're betting on a wholesale restructuring of American phone pricing. As of today, phones are purchased with contract, and iPhones are being sold at the same price as Android phones.

Huh? I'm betting on nothing. I just quoted the retail prices of the devices as google found them for me. Whether you purchase them with contract or not doesn't make a difference other than pay now versus pay later.

Yes, apple may lower the iPhone prices to match up the cheaper android devices. There's just a tipping point where that won't make sense anymore. It won't be long before we see nexus-grade devices hit the street for half the price of a comparable iPhone, with equal build quality and feature-set. What then, will apple sell the latest iPhone for $199 without contract? Will they add some gimmick to justify the premium price (what could that be then?)?

Touchscreen phones are becoming a commodity and apple can't change that. This is not a "bet" or guess, it's just plain old market forces at work (many manufacturers competing for the android market versus, well, apple).

Note that this is a bit of a different story than the mp3 player market. The ipod arguably still is the best mp3 player you can buy and afaik apple still holds the clickwheel patent to ensure that doesn't change too soon.

In the smartphone market the difference is nowhere near as clear cut. Android already is pretty close and apple doesn't hold any patents to push it back (unless you think they can win the multitouch case). So, as said, in short order we'll see android phones that match the iPhone experience. In fact, I'm quite sure soon enough we'll see android apps that skin your android to look near indistinguishable to an iPhone. Unless iPhone OS makes great leaps before that this might become the ultimate humiliation. How will apple sell me their $499 brick when my $199 brick plus a $5 app makes it look like theirs, plus multitasking and stuff?

That's the crossroad where apple will have to decide between trying to compete on price against the likes of HTC - or letting the iPhone fade back into a niche.