Pokémon Go loses its luster, sheds more than 10M users
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
Hearing my map ding was enough cause to make me leap out of my chair and run to the nearby park at midnight to catch something I wanted, and there'd usually be the usual lure-users and a few map-users out there at the same time. Once I was out, I'd play for a while, hit a gym or two, maybe finish an egg, and go home. This was still really fun when it was disabled.
Without the map, there's no reason for me to leave my house. There's no group of people at work who stand up when a Blastoise is announced into our #pokemon channel, sending us all on a brief Pokemon/coffee walk down the road.
That's all on top of the poor quality of the game, which the maps and community had overcome.
Niantic being selfish and not understanding their own game or the culture around it seems to have squandered one of the greatest opportunities a company has ever had.
(I get that the maps were spamming them, but that's a technical challenge. A bunch of well funded ex-googlers ought to be up to the challenge of scaling/handling unexpected load for a chance like this.)
The maps really drove it into overdrive, especially with the presence of "nests", because it allowed people to figure out where they needed to be, and would then congregate there. By taking out the maps, Niantic has turned their scavenger hunt into a scratch-off lotto ticket - don't bother trying to plan or play with any strategy, just wander around aimlessly until your phone buzzes. Who wants to do that?
It's a shame, because at its core there is a compelling scavenger hunt that generated a truly unique social phenomenon, and it's very sad to see Niantic just piss that away. The game just isn't worth putting any effort into - they broke the effort-reward cycle.
Add to that the fact that they made it, with a recent update, insanely likely for anything half-decent to simply run or be impossible to catch, and you have a recipe for declining interest in playing and paying to be bored.
But maybe they didn't want it to go fast. Maybe it was supposed to be unfeasible to get a full set in a reasonable amount of time. This doesn't seem too unlikely if they want to implement trading at some point.
All my 10-50CP Pidgeys don't magically get useful by evolving. Though they do give nice XP.
You're phrasing this almost as if Niantic wanted there to be third-party mapping apps in the first place, and then changed its mind.
The game Niantic released doesn't have mapping, and didn't intend to have an open API. This can be read as an implicit statement that the game design that Niantic thought people would enjoy playing, doesn't involve knowing where pokemon are.
Presuming there was at least one actual game designer involved in creating the game, there's likely already some sort of effort-reward cycle built into the game that doesn't involve mapping. It might not be one you like playing, but that probably means that you were not the audience Niantic designed (and playability-tested) the game for.
The root motivation of the bug was the stressing of the servers by "headless" accounts that existed solely to make mapping software possible. It's unfortunate that they chose to try and combat that activity rather than just understand it's what people wanted and make it less taxing on their server (make a mapping endpoint on an alternate server).
Didn't they though? At the very beginning of the game, you had footprints you could track and use to "hunt" down nearby pokemon. They took it out because it was hurting their servers. Maps allowed similar hunting. I would say that Niantic did in fact, change its mind.
You would think that, but there really isn't. It's easier to see if you load up the game for yourself.
Sure, it's true that Niantic didn't plan or intend for usable maps to exist. But it's also true that the game is effectively unplayable without the maps.
The real winner in this whole situation is Nintendo. Niantic has effectively given their entire userbase over to Nintendo -- and even though Nintendo's doing very little to attract or keep them, they'll probably still get some extra 3DS + game sales as a result.
I don't understand how that follows. How did Niantic give any of its userbase over to Nintendo? Pokemon Go does very little to advance the Nintendo games - there's literally zero upsell involved (or even any cross-advertising).
You could say that the Pokemon Go brand might sell some extra copies of Sun & Moon in November, but I'd argue that the effect runs mostly in the other direction. Pokemon Go was successful because of Nintendo's Pokemon brand. And to at least a degree, that capital is finite (people's appetite for Pokemon-related games is a finite resource, and it's possible that overexposure to Pokemon Go could make them less excited about the upcoming 3DS games).
Niantic's handling of Pokemon Go is driving demand for Pokemon, but not fulfilling it. And some of that unfulfilled demand is going to Nintendo, whose product does deliver a Pokemon experience, and is already sitting in thousands of stores all across America today.
"Sales of Pokémon X and Y, which were first released in October 2013, were up a huge 200 percent compared to their sales in July of last year." -- https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/18/nintendo-3ds-sales-up-80-y...
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> Pokemon Go does very little to advance the Nintendo games - there's literally zero upsell involved (or even any cross-advertising).
It doesn't have to advertise Nintendo's products, it only has to advertise the brand.
Coca-Cola ads drive demand and sales for Coke, even though they rarely upsell the actual product. Coke advertisements can drive sales without explicitly saying "12 packs are $3.99 at your local Wal*Mart".
If that was at all a reason for their reticence to create capable ingress mapping tools, it must be doubly so for PGO - a game that will attract many more minor age children than Ingress.
And that's entirely the developer's fault, not the players'.
I mean, I see what you're saying in the "the customer is always right" sense—it's Niantic's problem to solve if the majority of people playing their game want something other than their game.
But suppose Niantic don't care about making billions of dollars from an audience of "everyone", but only intended the game to be interesting to, say, 8-to-14 year olds with lots of time to kill wandering around in their small towns not finding much of anything. I don't think it's valid to criticize Niantic that another audience glommed onto the game that isn't that audience, and then is demanding an experience Niantic didn't intend.
A comparison: there are these cartoons in Japan about little girls being cute. They are marketed to little girls, who are intended to identify with the characters. But for some reason, a lot of grown men watch these shows, although nobody ever marketed the show to them. As you might guess, the grown men want different things from the shows than the intended audience does. And the grown men have a lot more money. But that doesn't mean that the show should change, does it?
Also remember, Pokemon Go is a franchise license. It was likely intended, in part, as a loss-leader marketing experiment for Nintendo to revive the Pokemon brand. Franchise licensees, before anything else, have to serve as good ambassadors for their franchise. Even if that means not making money. To do otherwise is to possibly get your license revoked, and for these franchise-licensed works, the licensed IP is usually 99% of the reason people (both in and out of the intended audience) are paying any attention. Making Pokemon's intended audience want to buy more Pokemon games, isn't necessarily more important a concern to Niantic's businesspeople than making a billion dollars from IAPs is; but it is certainly a more life-or-death concern. It's something that can't be traded away even for great benefit, like regulatory-compliance in a bank, or safety concern in an engineering project.
If you 'hear' a Pokemon near by (maybe you don't know what it is, just that you haven't seen it before), you also know a vague direction it's in; maybe not distance but direction.
That should stay on your map.
You move to a different location so you can triangulate it.
You hear it again and another slice lays on your map.
You investigate, but it's taken too long to get there. All you find are some footprints. (location saved to client device)
Later that day, or another day, the same noise is heard near that area, the client shows the pie slice again, but also loads the local markers within it.
You go to investigate the marker and see (maybe even capture) the Pokemon you'd been hunting.
Sure I can see if I am near a Pokemon, but I can't actually go after most of them due to GPS jitter and the time it takes to walk/cross at lights in cities.
If I absolutely knew which direction to go there is a CHANCE I could get to a Pokemon before it despawns.
As things stand now I pretty much have to win a small lottery to capture one where I happen to be taking a scenic walk.
If you mean they wouldn't hire him just for having ideas, then that's generally true, although I have seen someone hired as a consultant to design the economy of a game since he was a self-described 'free to play economy expert' with several articles posted on gamasutra (yeah, there was all sorts of problems with that project).
I was mostly just affirming that I thought his idea was a good one, not that I actually thought Niantic would hire him based on a forum post.
EDIT: Apparently you think the feature is not fun, well I think the rules for GPS games are not necessarily the same as static games, and the hunt and exploration and tracking could actually be fun when your movement actually matters. And it's a lot better than "you might get these pokemon if you run around in circles for the next ten minutes and get lucky!" that currently exists right now, which is shit and very unfun.
With maps, I'd gather a few coworkers for a safari when something cool popped up. Now we sit at our desks, catching the occasional thing that spawns in the building, but not going anywhere, and not even really interacting with each other.
Why bother playing the way that Niantic wants you to when their way feels like a grind-y waste of time?
Let's ignore the maps; pretend they never existed. I can drive wherever I want, but my time is limited. A child's time is less limited, but their location is more limited. A college student might be a mix of the two: mobile, with some significant free time. Another variable: location. In a rural location, there might not be a pokestop within several miles. In an urban location, there might be three within range of your home's family room.
From my perspective, people are already playing a bunch of different games, based on available time, mobility, location, and density of other nearby players.
Again, we're playing very different games ;-)
> By "unlimiting" yourself you're changing the rules for competitive play for everyone.
Again, what competitive play? I'm not competing against you or anyone else, by any reasonable metric.
> It's a very selfish way to play the game. It's a relief you've stopped.
No more selfish than being relieved that other people aren't having fun anymore.
You are competing for valuable pokemon, which IS the point of the game.
Well, until someone catches it. Then it disappears.
I'm not. The coworker next to me and I routinely catch the same Pokemon at the same time. Watching it on the map made it clear: if someone catches it, it doesn't just disappear. It's there for a set amount of time. When the time is up, that's when it can't be caught by someone else.
You can compete over who can fill up their Pokédex first (okay, just the 145 that are currently available). You can play the game for longer to catch more Pokémon. You can go out of your way to catch rare Pokémon. Even when you and a friend are in the same place catching the same Pokémon, you're not guaranteed to catch it — you can use Razz Berries and choose which Poké Ball to throw.
There's also Gyms. You can compete over who can control the most Gyms. If you're on opposing teams, you can compete over who will take control over a Gym. Or who will be Gym Leader.
There are many different aspects to this game. Whilst one particular aspect (Pokémon not disappearing when caught) may not be competitive, that doesn't mean the game as a whole can't be.
It seems like a philosophical debate: If I'm playing a game where players can optionally compete (but I don't), while using a tool that gives me a theoretical edge (even if I'm using it ineffectively), have I ruined someone else's game just by the perception that I could have?
You probably aren't ruining anyones game if you aren't competing, but you are still cheating.
However, plenty of players that have cheated by using the map tools do place Pokemon in gyms. That is also unethical (even though I would consider it a pretty minor violation as far as ethics goes).
No one gets to bend the rules of a game because of their circumstance for e.g. 'I work all day, so I should have access to tools that give me an advantage over others'. Games are not an equal opportunity endeavour where everyone gets to be a winner.
Those who play by the rules and practice (or grind) should be rewarded, those who cheat should be penalised, simple.
"this is a make believe world with arbitrary rules - bend them as much as you can, because why not"
>No one gets to bend the rules of a game because of their circumstance
Again, I come to the opposite conclusion, that _because the rules are there_ they are fun to push, modify, bend, break.
If you and I were having a conversation in just about any other context, most likely we would find so many areas in which we agree, and might even really enjoy the time spent.
So, it's so funny to me that we might disagree so completely on something so foundational as rule-following behavior.
Cheers!
Same with maps, they are third-party tools used to shortcut success. Yes, the tracking sucks in game (im sure it will improve soon), but that doesn't justify having tools that say 'rare pokemon over here' without performing the actual hunting aspect of the game. That is no different to bots. What's the fun in everyone having rare pokemon without earning them.
I'm not dissing maps, Niantic might even make their own official version in the future. But when people cry foul when their preferred method of 'bending the rules' is removed, I don't have much pity for them.
"But when people cry foul when their preferred method of 'following the rules' is removed, I don't have much pity for them."
...via 10M players leaving the game and putting the entire ecosystem at risk.
The thing is, you're looking at this activity like 'success' is measurable within the game's rules rather than how satisfied people feel about playing the game in real life.
This is a big difference between adults and children, by the way. All that prefrontal cortex development tends to push people into taking the value of their time into consideration even when they are playing games. They are not wrong to do so.
The most reasonable explanation for the drop in users is simply a tapering off after one of the most hyped game releases of all time. Correct me if im wrong, but i'm pretty sure there are still some 30M+ users active in the game.
There's also:
-no way to get banned for using the cheat.
-a very very low barrier to entry.
-the cheat is directly replacing a bugged out, missing game mechanic.
-the PvP advantage is minimal, only affecting a small portion of the game.
Basically none of the classic problems with cheating are present here.
Sure they do, and for any other reason that they want to.
> Games are not an equal opportunity endeavour where everyone gets to be a winner.
My point exactly. I still don't get to be a winner, because I don't have the time to put into it. But at least I get to enjoy the time that I have.
> Those who play by the rules and practice (or grind) should be rewarded, those who cheat should be penalised, simple.
"Should" perhaps being the operative word. "If wishes were fishes..." and all that. If it makes you feel better, there've been a lot of stories recently about those nasty, nasty GPS spoofers getting their accounts banned.
'No one gets to bend the rules of a game' is the basic principle of fair play and sportsmanship. You dont have time so you want to circumvent progress quicker because you enjoy it more is not within the bounds of fair play.
The GPS spoofing is certainly bending the rules, but the game allowed you to do that without penalty. Ask most players though and they will say it's unfair as it's a shortcut to success. Now that Niantic has come down on those GPS hacks, do I feel sorry for those people caught out, of course not.
The maps issue is no different. It's like an athlete complaining that his favourite performance enhancing drug has recently be banned, well forgive me if I don't leap to his defence.
Its not like the game is unforgiving to new players, it's very easy to level up in early stages and make good progress.
But what I'm hearing is the people who are bending the rules are playing a completely different game, a noncompetetive game which is enabled by cheating, but good in its own right. And as opposed to multiplayer cheats, it's not good by making it worse for the other players; the cheats straight up enable an alternate playstyle that does not compete with the regular gameplay. It's like Tour de France players calling people with E-Bikes cheaters, even if they don't actually ride in the Tour de France.
So all I can say is "well played, cheaters".
What's this completely different other games within a game you are referring to. Is it the 'catch rare pokemon without hunting for them' game. Well yeah of course that's noncompetitive.
You are aware this is a multiplayer game though, right? There are gyms where you have battles and those with rare pokemons with higher CP will take over gyms that earn them stardust and coins.
Personally, I'm complaining because the game is broken and no fun, and a method of fixing it has been disabled. I don't particularly care about any of the multiplayer aspects, except that it's sometimes fun to meet friends and run around playing it.
How did I get to lvl 22 if the game is broken? How do 30 million people play if it is broken? Its not that the games broken, it just not the way you want to play it. Like it or not the games about grinding, as evident by the RPG lite gameplay mechanics, the 100s of pokeballs given to the player and high XP awarded for evolving common pokemon. You might want it to be a game simply about 'finding rare pokemon easy', but that's not the intend way of playing it.
There is a type of player that grinds and min-maxes and generally does a bunch of stuff I DON'T CONSIDER FUN to win a zero-sum game. That's the only currently existing multi-player aspect, and it isn't why I started using Pokemon GO (I use it as an excuse, to my self, to get out and exercise).
There is absolutely zero other 'multi player' aspect to the game as it is officially built. Anything else is a happy co-incidence.
There isn't anything within the game to turn the crowd of players in the local downtown park from a bunch of strangers in to friends. We all just happen to share one singular interest.
It matters if you then go on to hold gyms with your super pokemon and you're now out of the league of the non-maps players.
Would you hold the same sentiment for GPS spoofers? Who jump around from gym to gym with their Dragonites and Snorlax that are far higher level than even a heavy map user would have?
Or people that use aim bots in fps? Maphacks?
I think it's a difference in perception. I consider the location-locked nature of the game to be a central feature that contributes to the entertainment value of the game. I don't consider the location of the Pokemon being hidden a central feature at all; it feels more like and unfair hobble that saps the entertainment.
> Or people that use aim bots in fps? Maphacks?
I'm not going to argue that cheating in competitive multiplayer games is a good thing any more than I'd argue that cheating in ways that don't affect other players is a bad thing.
> You augmented the main, core part of the game to make it easier to catch pokemon.
And it improved a flawed game (for me) without harming your experience.
> That sounds like some form of cheating to me.
In that I gained an advantage over what the game provides? Yes. In that I gained an advantage over you or any other player? No. I'm not in competition with anyone. I consider it a fairly solitary game (don't see the point of teams and gyms).
I'm serious on that last one: the people who made the pokemon mapping apps could all get together and have enough pooled mobile-fronted and realtime-GIS backend knowledge to make a full-on clone of the game. (Maybe not with the original's art assets, but those burn battery-life anyway. Use some cute 2D pixel-art like the first-gen games; people's nostalgia will override their aesthetics!)
Have you ever heard of The Phantom Edit? Or A Phantom Edit?
Or the Despecialised Edition?
Yes, if I had the time and artistic ability. I've enjoyed various unofficial re-cuttings of Star Wars, different edits of Blade Runner, and so on. I'd put other things in the same category: upscalers for emulated games, texture packs for N64 games and Minecraft, mods for Minecraft and every other game under the sun, re-implementations of game engines or whole games that introduce features not found in the originals, etc.
> to make a full-on clone of the game.
Nintendo shut down Pokemon Uranium within 9 days, after 9 years of fan development. If they'd only called it Rucksack Goblins and made up their own characters...
I think that ways to extend an existing system in unintended directions are more interesting than most of the existing systems. Reinterpreting art is an art-form of its own.
I would note that all of these fall either into the category of "creator encourages community involvement" or "creator has abandoned work and ignores community involvement." Yes, people participate when participation is a net-positive. What I was asking is why people would bother contributing their time and effort to effectively do software development for a company that actively tries to discourage them from doing so.
It'd be like people making Minecraft mods and then Microsoft suing them for doing so. Surely people would re-implement the engine and start modding that, to get away from the abuse?
> If they'd only called it Rucksack Goblins and made up their own characters...
Yes, that's more what I meant. Why not create a Fanny-pack Gremlins March app?
Well...Pokemon Uranium and the community Metroid 2 Remake. Both actively discouraged, but both worthwhile creations, IMO (and the kind of thing I'd have fun doing). Presumably, they did those not just because they wanted to write an RPG or Metroidvania game, but because they're fans of those specific franchises. I read it as an expression of fandom.
I'm working on an engine re-implementation project for an old game, currently owned by a fairly litigious company, for a few reasons:
- I love the game itself, and writing my own in a similar genre+style misses the point
- I like to feel like I'm the first one to re-discover the file formats in a couple decades
- I like understanding the low-level details of "how the sausage gets made"
- I've seen similar projects with this same game crash and burn, and I'd like to be the different one (there've been half a dozen previous attempts at the same game).
- I want to make it possible to easily mod the game, maybe to get a community to build a remastered version.
> Why not create a Fanny-pack Gremlins March app?
It's a lot of work to attract people to a franchise, and it's easier to ride on the coattails of another one ;-) I also suspect that the driving force was Pokemon fandom, not only the desire to make a game. The legal issues involved clearly weren't a decisive factor during the development phase.
I didn't use maps. I also didn't feel like those who did were cheating, or that I was any worse off for them using maps.
The 'competition' in Pokemon Go was really minimal, and maps had very little effect on them. The only competitive aspect to Pokemon Go is gym battling. If you care only about collecting, you actually benefit from map users, because they're the ones likely to drop lures.
As for gym battling, yes, maps might have had a negative effect on the competitive landscape there. But the competitive mechanics for gym battling were so fundamentally broken from the start that it's not reasonable to blame it on map users for "cheating".
(How were they broken, might you ask? Well, the fact that moves have such a wide variance in DPS, combined with the fact that movesets are entirely random and randomized upon evolution makes obtaining strong Pokemon entirely a matter of luck. Couple that with the fact that leveling up rare Pokemon requires... finding lots of that same rare Pokemon to turn into candy means that obtaining the strongest Pokemon (which are usually rare) is a matter of repeated luck + time spent grinding. Next, battling is kind of pointless until you're around level 15-20, because you'll almost certainly lose, and the amount of XP you gain from beating a single Pokemon is insultingly small. And finally, the battling itself was highly dependent on the latency of your Internet connection. This was fixed in a recent update, but it was a huge annoyance in the first week or two).
I made a map that scanned my whole city just for fun and leaning, released and showed to a couple of friends. The next day I was flooded with Facebook invites with people telling me how they got a rare pokemon or requesting for a expansion on their cities. People kept sending messages when it went down even late at night and saying they don't want to play without a map.
It only took 200 pokemon accounts to do it and scan a 3 km radius, so it was a drop in the ocean compared with the traffic they get, and sadly it will go down once the next update hits (they implemented a captcha[1] system).
[1] - https://twitter.com/FastPokeMapCom/status/768055037604036608...
F: How do you feel about Poké Radar and things that tap into the code and show where Pokémon are spawning?
JH: Yeah, I don’t really like that. Not a fan. We have priorities right now but they might find in the future that those things may not work. People are only hurting themselves because it takes some fun out of the game
Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanmac/2016/07/28/pokemon-go-cr...
Well it sounds like they were wrong about it.
The feet feature being removed hurt the game, but those maps that posted the exact location of the Pokemon seemed to go counter to the actual game.
That was impossible before, with all the bot-accounts at level 30 holding them.
1) Many players don't care about the gym battling system and just wanted to "collect" Pokemon. Once you've collected most of the ones in your area, you're going to get bored catching the same pidgeys, weedles, and rats/bats. My SO and I have gone to different areas to catch other Pokemon but you just need to go a few times and now we both have "most" of the common Pokemon. We're not hardcore enough to want to spend more time hunting the last few missing in our deck.
2) The lack of support and response from Niantic when the game was badly broken turned off a lot of casual players. Hardcore players will forgive them but casual players especially on iOS expect a lot more polish and "it just works" from a top selling game. I wonder how much of a fit Nintendo threw when this happened given they are a partial owner/investor in "The Pokemon Company".
3) The gym battling system mechanics are not great. You basically can throw bodies at a gym until you knock them down. There's no P2P battling which would make it more exciting since the gym AI is predictable in their attack patterns and most players know the dodge, attack, dodge routine now. The whole premise is to take down a gym, revive your Pokemon, collect potions/revives, do it all over again.
Imagine if the actual Pokemon games never had trainers outside of gyms. I don't know about you, but after a while it would start to feel like a repetitive chore.
How cool would it be if you were walking down the street with your phone in your pocket.. and all of a sudden it started vibrating, you pick it up - TRAINER BATTLE. You look around, and you see someone else with their phone out looking around too. Now all of a sudden you're in a pokemon battle with a total stranger!
So much potential for cool experiences.. and yet they're doing nothing of the sort.
FTFY
That's a huge understatement. Initially the battling system was super confusing, but with enough trial-and-error we were able to figure it out. I even got into a couple fun battles with groups fighting over a gym, but every time it starts getting glitchy. The gym or the app become unresponsive - sometimes crashing or kicking people out mid-battle.
They need to make it more organized with a queue that blocks people out for a time if they lose. It would also be cool if they allowed people near the gym to actually watch other battles.
What I enjoyed was the "Geocaching" aspects - going outside with friends, helping each other search together, visiting new places I normally wouldn't go to (ie new Pokéstops, catching a train to new suburbs to explore what's there). I also like the fitness aspect, ie tracking how far I've walked. But Pokéwalks with friends aren't fun when someone is more interested in defending a specific gym, rather than Pokémon being an excuse to hang out and go for a walk by the lake together.
I've spent more on this than any mobile game (probably $15 - $25, I kept needing to upgrade my Pokémon storage and bag storage). But I uninstalled the app earlier this week.
Wow, if Niantic had an event on the waterfront, and they happened to get city permission so when the sea monster is defeated it triggers a local fireworks display, that could be really interesting - and newsworthy. And no doubt the local cafes and food vendors would be selling out again afterwards too if you can create an event like that....
There could also be fun challenges like "Magikarp invasion!" - 400 Magikarp have invaded Fisherman's Wharf. They need to all be caught in the next hour or else they'll threaten native species.
Create some fun quests and challenges and randomize where they spawn and make them time limited.
I would expect Niantic to have a similar idea in mind for PoGo, but also think they've not fully figured out how they want the mechanics to play out long term, and that might need to happen first.
So it would not be at all surprising if similar stuff found its way into P:Go.
Another thing that bugs me is uneven catch rate. Having something break free 7 times in a row then running away (even when using razz berries, ultra balls etc.) seems to be in place purely to annoy you. Then other times I catch a stronger pokemon the first try with a regular pokeball. Why???
But I agree completely that it's more fun when you have a map or the long lost footprints to be able to zero in on foot.
Even a month after release the game was still crashing regularly, gym battles only worked 50% of the time, constant server downtime, etc. No word from Niantic on the problems or what they were doing to resolve them.
I uninstalled the game at that point so I don't know whether or not it improved, but it's 2016 and I see scalability as a mostly solved problem. Persistent downtime a month after release is inexcusable.
I'd suggest watching the developer of Braid talk about free-to-play games. He compares them to 90's syndicated TV shows, each one being independent and leaving you with a cliffhanger prior to each commercial break. When HBO started producing long running series that would eventually be released on VHS and DVD, you saw much more long arching story.
Even though Pokemon Go has a lot more going for it than many other free-to-play games, it still works on a model that limits how far you can go without buying stuff. That's how those game companies make money.
I met a Pikpok dev once who said 80% of people delete their games once you can't really advance without buying stuff. A couple spend $80 ~ $200 (more than they would on a traditional title) and a few, the "Whales," would dump $2k upwards into these games. They depended on those players to make the games profitable.
Free-to-play are like quarter-based arcade games .. on your phone. They're a pretty big step backwards in gaming.
Developers tried the paid game model and, other than a small number of niche games, the mobile market just doesn't want to pay for them.
Than there is an even bigger audience who own a smartphone/tablet and consider themself casual players. That's the crowd that are catered by Free2Play games. They are often more like casino games or Farmville clones than real games - real games are fun, casual Free2Play are often created to be addictive and are based on grinding (= boring(?)). Some of them find out there a whole other world of real games, many will be in the impression that they are playing real games just because they know no better, and others ... etc.
To each audience their own. The negative side was that for years several Triple-A companies went down the Free2Play road while their audience all wanted just the next Trle-A installment. Several franchises like MS Flight Simulator, Age of Empires, Dungeon Keeper were destroyed/burned by dumb decisions. Even whole companies like Crytek, Zynga, etc almost lost everything.
Gungho's Puzzle and Dragons is one of the most profitable games of all time; it was the first mobile game to break 1 billion in revenue per year. It was released to the NA market 3 or 4 years ago and has continued to increase its player base month after month. Not only that, but they have unprecedented retention. People are still playing it 3 and 4 years later, you just don't get that with any other mobile game.
As always, don't forget to put the scary raw numbers into context. 12 million out of 45 million means they've retained 73% of their user base month over month. We can't derive actual retention numbers from that because new users, etc. but 15% is great month over month retention for a F2P mobile game. Assume Pokemon Go is doing that. That would mean 6.5M of their current user base stuck around since the beginning of August, and they picked up just under 25M new users in one month.
I dunno about you, but I'd be really pleased if my new game got 25M new users in the second month after release. Not as good as the 45M I got in the first month, but that's not rationally sustainable.
Time spent in game dropping is bad. DAU dropping is bad. I wouldn't spin this as good news. Niantic could absolutely be managing live operations much better. But click bait is click bait.
If you're sitting here saying that it's failing because everyone you know stopped playing, you need to figure out how to make your mental model explain why it's still top grossing.
However, you make a good point -- the numbers lose even more context when they're not broken down by country, particularly when the launch was staggered. E.g., Pokemon Go launched in Japan on July 21st, which means any numbers captured at the beginning of August reflect initial launch volumes.
I like having the app open when I'm on a run. I can hatch eggs, take a breather at gyms, and pick up a lot of Pokemon. Tracking was never an integral part of my game experience, which is maybe why I didn't feel as affected by the changes.
I never completely understood the complaints. Niantic has a right to make a (free-to-play!) game and don't owe us anything. And since this is a dev-centric community, many of us can appreciate how stressed out Niantic engineers probably are right now after a difficult launch. I get that maps were cool - I have a nice Dragonite to show for it, but it always felt like a hack that was going to go away. The old tracking system was better, but I'd rather have the performance of August than the tracking system of July.
Losing users was probably inevitable. This game was everywhere in the news, so I'm sure plenty of people tried it out and realized it wasn't for them. Combine that with people who miss their maps as well as maybe adjusting the numbers after catching bots, and that probably covers most of the numbers.
Imagine if a game like Soul Caliber or Street Fighter took away the fighting aspect of their game. You may think the main fun part of soul caliber is unlocking stronger/hidden weapons, or selecting the right match-up in street fighter, but a majority of people enjoy the combat aspect.
I continued to play after they took out tracking because I thought it was only temporary. Now I finally realize it's permanent so I haven't logged in to Pokemon Go in 7 days now.
They made the pokemon break free MUCH more often with the update about 10 days ago. You now have to use way more pokeballs to capture things. So much to the point that it's unfun. I don't live near a pokestop so I can't top up quickly.
Another thing they did was make it so the pokemon disappear if a range check puts you far enough away from the point of initial contact. Combine that together and nobody can play the game in the car anymore, even if you're not driving!
So they spent a bunch of time changing existing features to be less fun without adding any new features that are fun. Not a good idea.
I have been playing with my wife and two of my kids. We all stopped playing because it's simply not fun anymore.
Combine that with a UI popup (mid capture interaction no less) that steels input focus (it stops your ball toss), telling the user something they LITERALLY have no control over fixing, and quite possibly ruining your chance at capturing a more rare Pokemon and it is insanely frustrating.
It doesn't matter what I'm doing or what device I'm using it always shows that GPS error message every 30 seconds to 1 minute.
GPS on phones aren't that accurate, especially downtown, but most applications will filter the data because of that. Ever use Google Maps for directions and make a turn different from what the app is telling you to do? Your car icon will continue down the "correct" path for 15-30 seconds before re-adjusting to the new route. This actually happens all the time, it's just more likely that your GPS is misreporting you as 20m east instead of you taking a different turn, so the app holds off on updating the display until it is more sure.
So it's a combination of the two factors. But most apps handle it muuuuch better than P:GO does.
Here's a link I was able to find on running apps specifically. Apps that deal with you being on foot will obviously have a harder time determining exactly where you are, as opposed to apps for driving where you're moving faster, in a straight line, and down a grid of streets.
http://radianttap.com/blog/2012/comparing-accuracy-of-the-gp...
[1] http://venturebeat.com/2014/02/26/only-0-15-of-mobile-gamers...
I'd like to see some things that allow the players more ways to change the map in a way that interacts with other players. Right now that's only done by Gym Battles and by placing Lures in Pokestops.
Some of the ideas I've got are:
- Some way for players to place markers on the map to indicate that Pokemon have seen, rally players to a spot, etc.
- A way for players to create new Pokestops.
- Some kind of quest mechanic where players could create quests and embark on quests created by others.
All of these could be tied to the in-game purchase system. They'd need some way to prevent abuse of it, of course.
The biggest problem I have is that it feels very much like a single-player game, and a fairly shallow one at that, with some very minor multiplayer elements.
I've been saying this for a while -- it was fun to play for a few days, but I live in a suburb. I have to walk at least .5 miles to get to a Pokestop and they never spawn near my house.
I'll still play when I go to new places, but that's about it.
Now, if there were some way for my wife and I to battle each other at home, that would be whole different ball game.
The reason why it is getting boring is actually something else... it is in the flaw of their game design. This game is extremely biased toward people who live around water with high density such as Santa Monica and San Francisco. You can catch Dragonite and bunch of starters there. But most people instead will catch eevee and growlithe at the best. Basically after a while you finish catching every pokemon around you and there is nothing else to do other than fight gyms. But gyms are so easy to beat that you don't have much incentive to defend it.
The game is not similar enough to Ingress for the existing tit-for-tat ideas to work. Fire XMPs <=> Gym Battle; Add Resonators to Portal <=> Put Champion on Gym. Where's the equivalent of shields or key-based recharging at a distance? Why can't I buff my pokemon stationed on a gym (or the gym itself) with items after an alert that the gym is being battled?
That's a nice weapon to have to shut up "analysts" who always want them to take the path to short term gains.
I remain bearish on Pokemon go and bullish on Nintendo.
Its the Pokemon Company, and nintendo only gets a small percentage of the licensing...
I'd be pretty surprised if Nintendo weren't at least de facto in control of Pokemon, personally.
I was in the audience at a Hironobu Sakaguchi interview recently, and one of the things that has stayed with me was that Nintendo told the FF team back in the 90's, "You need to take better care of your characters." Nintendo has certainly done that for itself over the course of many decades, and it's always paid off for them despite many short term troubles they've encountered.
Rapid market saturation means you do not have time to test and optimize for long term user retention. Hypothetically you could get all of the variables correct on day one, but unlikely.
at the moment, both oppose each other because the maps people make to make #1 easier, make it easier for a subset of people to dominate #2 easier. By removing the maps that make #2 so unbalanced, #1 becomes a repetitive chore.
There's literally nothing more to the game than those two mechanics. There's no end goal like the other pokemon games. There's no higher goal to work towards from capturing gyms and holding areas.
It's no surprise that the game is dying. Either you collect the 80% that are easy to find and then it just becomes a huge chore without the necessary tools to find the last 20%, or you powerlevel up to fight in gyms for a bit and then... what exactly?
Niantic should've taken another 3-6 months of heavy dev time to really polish it and add more depth to it. Create a higher purpose for holding gyms. Create a more compelling search mechanism that doesn't allow maps but then doesn't make the last 20% of the search such a huge, completely random-chance chore.
There needs to be more to the game than those two mechanics and every moment it's released but there's not, it just withers. No amount of patching in an IV% calculator by visiting your 'trainer' will help that, because it still just relies on those two very broken pillars.
The problem with all of these kinds of games (MMOs in particular) is that people consume content far faster than it can be created. It's quite difficult to create self-sustaining content.
What I'd like to see is ways for players to do things that have lasting effects on the map. Whether it's moving Pokestops, or making Gyms have some higher purpose, or something I can't think of, I'm not sure.
Right now it's a fairly shallow single-player game that has some extremely minor (Gyms and Lures) multiplayer mechanics.
Even Dota and LoL gain their complexity not through the game (I mean they both have 1 map) but through the interaction that happens with 5v5 gameplay. Quake and CS are the same.
The problem with Pokemon Go is that there's no player interaction beyond gym battles, which are just about as minimial as player interaction can get and could almost be replaced by NPC trainers that you periodically have to beat to kick them out before they reset again.
Had they had more emphasis on player encounters, Pokemon Go would not be burning out. Trading of pokemon, player vs player battles outside of gyms, a more meaningful gym possession metagame (think Planetside). An item meta-economy where you can find and trade items that you can pick up around the place randomly and which give you bonuses (to catch rates, to pokemon power, etc. etc. - there's heaps of scope here). This is all roughly mapped out in MMOs, so it's a case of implementation not invention.
Patching this in now is far less effective since they've burnt much of the goodwill that players give them when they first start playing. For every player that'll return, 10 won't bother no matter what you do to the game.
Now before you or anyone says that Pokemon is larger, it's not. Puzzle and Dragons might not be as large in America (it's close though), but in Japan, 10% of their entire population plays the game. More people play that game, probably 3 times over, than play Pokemon Go.
The first Zelda for Wii (Twilight Princess) made some use of the controller. It's how you aimed ranged weapons, and how you did special sword swings. This game was also released for the Gamecube, so they couldn't do too much with pure wiimote controls.
The second Zelda for Wii did more, including using wiimote movement for flapping when flying, and more intricate sword control.
Mario Kart shipped with a wheel attachment so you could steer using that.
Metroid games for the Wii make extensive use of the wiimote pointer for aiming.
The Wario games are all about utilizing different control schemes, as are the Mario Party games.
The 2D Mario games did not make much use of the wiimote, but that's a good thing. Forcing weird controls onto a game type that doesn't fundamentally support them well is not a good thing.
As can be expected, Nintendo was one of the biggest users of the new functionality on their system. I'm not sure where you're getting this idea they didn't use the new functionality, unless you mean they didn't use only the new functionality, but why would they do something as stupid as that?
The most useful features of the kinect only need a mic to work, but of course MS wont let you just use a mic for those features... they want you to buy a ridiculously expensive gadget to collect dust while waiting for a voice command...
Controlling my tv with my hand needs a camera.
But yes, overall the Kinect games are not numerous - what does exist tho was, when good, really good.
Also Xbox Fitness would not work well at all without it - and that's fantastic
The good news is I think the market's broken wide open for another AR app, hopefully one with more compelling gameplay that isn't structured to be the next Farmville/Game Of War/whatever in app purchase digital cash cow.
Because at the moment, it's a game that seems designed specifically to reward city dwellers and punish countryside and suburban folk. If you're in a city, lots of Pokemon seem to appear because it uses mobile signals to place them. In the country where you'd expect Pokemon? Nothing. You can have tall grass for miles, yet get less Pokemon than in a Walmart parking lot.
As a result, a lot of people spent ages wandering around and encountering nothing. Or maybe just common Pokemon.
The maps helped with this a bit, by giving these people the knowledge to find the few interesting Pokemon that would spawn before they vanish. But without them? There's not really a point for most people in these areas to keep playing. It's a lot of hassle for very little reward.
Niantic didn't seem to want to improve this either. They simply said something like 'well, you'll just have to move to where the Pokemon are'.
So I wonder if some of the drop may be people living in more remote regions saying 'sod this' and giving up on the game.
Personally I think Niantic's entire team was plain overwhelmed and failed to adapt. Some decisions were made for money, and you can argue that they were unnecessary, but their is also no doubt a lot of people worked really hard and tried their best to make it work. There is of course value in that experience that can be applied to future iterations.
The future looks great for AR at least.
If their servers can not handled the amount of users using the map function to track pokemon, set this feature as an item. Once a day a user can track pokemon for 1-2 30min session a day.
Then if users want an extra session to track pokemon, they would only have to pay a few pokecoins. This way they can please the userbase and easy the resources used.
I got interested in the game, but I decided to wait a bit as daily high temperatures hovered at the century mark.
There's a spot downtown here that's so bad they're debating putting up a fence to contain the players and keep them from interfering with a ferry terminal that's close by: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-ferry-terminal...
Many people, no doubt, but I'd prefer to get outdoors when it's grey and snow is falling. When the sun's out, it burns my skin; when it's above freezing, there can be rain. Cold & snowy is easy to deal with: throw on a coat, a hat and a scarf.
Hot is impossible to deal with: cool or die. Actually, even if one cools down, the sun will give one skin cancer. So, really, it's cool and die.
I was never an active Pokemon Go player, but few of my friends were really into the game. Every Friday we would go out for a walk, in near by park and they will have their phone out and be catching Pokemons. I guess it was just how much more I can catch thing. They always wanted to get the rares ones. Who doesn't right? Last 2 weekends I have noticed 2 of my friends didn't care much. And, slowly, the interest faded away. Now we all going for paint ball.
I don't know if it's Ninatic not coming up with good updates or its just a common thing with every mobile game. Angry birds, Candy crush and now Pokemon Go?
> Every Friday we would
> They always wanted
> Last 2 weekends I have noticed 2 of my friends didn't care much. And, slowly, the interest faded away.
"Every", "always", "slowly", and the overall feeling of a long tradition.
Er... guys... can you remind us how long this fad lasted? When was it introduced? 6 years ago? 6 months ago? No, that's 6 weeks ago, men! So, 2 weeks ago was just 4 weeks after the beginning...
Is it the CADT at work, describing an extremely short, transient fling about a lousy game as a tradition?
I was amazed by people pretending this was (another) revolution in gaming and life, that allowed them to socialize (ever heard of walking down to your local bar? apparently not) and to take a walk (wow). And now, just one month after all that fuss, it's already scrapped and life goes on as it was before that was a thing. Or was it never a thing and people rushed into making theories about it without thinking further than their nose? That would be surprising. Ahem.
I strongly disagree. In my opinion what we just saw was the initial burst of public enjoyment of that game mechanic, and now that the concept has very widespread familiarity, the ground is set for better games to come along and dwarf Pokemon Go.
It actually was a revolutionary moment, but it seems many want to assume the initial burst was the big bang. I think that's very wrong.
After they deleted my account for that (fair enough), I uninstalled the app. I wasn't going to run around catching and releasing Rattatas all the time, as the game is one of the most grindy games I've ever seen, but there's pretty much nothing else to do in the game either.
They should have spent time celebrating what the public was making or even possibly trying to produce an alternative API optimized for consumption (instead of blasting their servers with hundreds of fake accounts to get the necessary data).
Fast forward a week, and the warmer/colder system is broken. All the Pokémons are always 3 steps away, which means somewhere within 1km radius. And you have 15 minutes to find that one you're missing. You can still see them from 100 meters away, and the app is quite responsive when you get close to them. The downtime is unbearable at times, and people are losing items they paid real money for due to this.
Then we fast forward two weeks. People have started reverse-engineering the internal API and are using it to create maps over nearby Pokémons. The brokenness of the tracking system is acknowledged at some convention (not publicly on their site), but no promises are made on fixing it. Niantic starts sending out C&Ds to projects using their APIs, trying to remove bots and tracking websites. Despite their own tracker being broken. The app is now limited to communicating once per 10 seconds, and you can only see Pokémons 70m around you.
After successfully hiring a PR manager, Niantic breaks their deafening silence and tells us that the tracking system will not be fixed. They will replace it with something better. A new app rolls out, now with request signing to combat tracking websites. This takes about 5 days to crack before business returns to usual. People really want to be able to track their Pokémons, and having no ways to do so put a lot of people off. Closing Pokevision made many of my friends quit, because to them, Niantic didn't share their concerns at all.
Finally, the tracking system is replaced with a new one. You can now detect nearby Pokémons up to 200m (vs 1000m before). You still need to get within 70m of them to actually see them though. Niantic also activate an extra tracking system in certain American states, as a beta test. This has been active for about two weeks now without hitting the rest of the player base. Unfortunately, it is based on Pokestops, which are user-submitted landmarks from their previous game, Ingress. A lot of places do not have these at all, or extremely few. This makes the game basically unplayable in rural areas, where you'll rapidly run out of items or never find anything interesting.
For me, personally, I feel this game has great potential, but I really miss more openness from Niantic. What are their plans for the future? Which concerns are they acknowledging? Which are intentional features of the game, and thus ignored? I think this game basically blew up in their faces, and they weren't ready to handle the interest. It's sad that they let this chance go, because I think it will be extremely hard for them to redeem themselves after this.
(Though I don't actually play it - maybe the "active" portion of the game mechanics has just changed character).
I think the problem is that there isn't much keeping people around other than catching new Pokemon and leveling up. Both of those things get progressively harder as you go along, removing the incentives to keep playing. Maybe if there were some sort of quest system (and not the achievements) or real social mechanic, people would stick around for longer.
Film at 11
[EDIT: Removed pvp mention because I couldn't find a source]
What did they think I would do if they left me without a way to play without violating the 'ToS?'