NASA plans to hand over the ISS to a private corporation
engadget.com
engadget.com
Sigh. In monetary terms, it would be precisely worth as much as the price at which it clears the market[1]. The idea that somehow the value of the space station has a monetary value that isn't tied to the price at which the market clears is incorrect.
Remember... the cost of station is not what it is worth, that's simply the cost.
[1] Yes, there can be fraud or disparities of information between the parties in the transaction that can cause the selling price to not be properly reflective of the worth of the property in exchange. But the overall tendency of market pricing is to draw the monetary price to the value of the property.... and in my experience the exact opposite of the article's point tends to be true... the seller almost always knows more about the property sold than the buyer, thus the buyer is more likely to overpay for the property rather than the seller getting too little.
The market doesn't value everything optimally, especially when you consider present vs. future value. The market has done a terrible job of pricing in the future costs of climate change, for instance. It's improving, but slowly and (seemingly only) with significant intervention (for instance, carbon credits).
Is the market going to properly value future scientific gains from ongoing operation of the ISS? Would the market have paid for the LHC? For NASA, 50 years ago? Even if you believe the ongoing science collected is of minimal value, what about the effects of inspiration for kids to enter STEM fields?
I'm not saying the ISS is worth it. I'm only saying I don't believe your thesis that "market value" is fundamentally equal to "value to society". It may be a good approximation in many, or even the majority of cases. But acting like it's the only correct way to value something is, I think, foolish. One of the benefits of government is to get everyone to chip into large-scale projects that (hopefully) benefit all, but are difficult to monetize. A network of roadways, research into science and medicine, and general education all come to mind.
Not to mention the programmable electronic computers and open internet without which we couldn't even be having this discussion!
Examples: My time, the skills of guys who chase balls around in sneakers, the skills of scientists who develop the Theory of Relativity, the Theory itself, my child's education, or my child.
That's a poor example and you're wrong. A very, very, very large, consistent, long duration market says that they're worth a lot.
Quality entertainment can be worth a vast amount of money, and it has a very real/tangible value to it. Whether you personally think a specific entertainment is quality is purely subjective. What's not remotely that subjective, is the scale of the market, its historical record, and the reasonable future forecasts for its business prospects.
I agree with that. My point and the point of the GP is that the market isn't good at valuing some things.
The 'market' is just a tool, a technology, not a God or scripture. Any tool works well for some tasks and less well for others. Also, the concept 'free market' is a theoretical abstraction that doesn't exist in reality; the NBA, for example, operates a monopoly in a market distorted heavily by law, regulations, a collective bargaining agreement, and market power.
As someone said, Theory is a useful servant but a bad master, liable to produce orthodox defenders of every variety of the faith.[1]
[1] Harry Guntrip, as far as I know
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kawhi-leonard-like-all-t...
The market, ie, people individually and in groups buying stuff, value stuff according to the goals of those buyers. Saying that the market as done a terrible job of pricing in the future costs of climate change to society makes no sense; it was never supposed to!
stuaxos is talking about markets in situ, or reality. And in that sense of markets, there is no "free" market in the entire world. As Ha-Joon Chang points out, immigration control has a far bigger effect on wages than minimum wage, and if we (I'm in the USA) had a maximally free market we would also have open borders. There are many ways that "free" markets are not socially desirable.
Which is why he never said that. Hes says market value is equal to what it is worth.
The value to society also depends on how much society is worth. They are completely unrelated concepts.
> the cost of station is not what it is worth, that's simply the cost.
Yeah, but isn't it also wrong to say that the price is simply what it's worth?
Maybe a lot of the value is scientific, and maybe difficult to capture.
If corporations can't extract this value, maybe they won't be able to justify the running costs, the auction will flop and it will be de-orbited; but doesn't mean the value doesn't exist.
Maybe the item is so large and so rare the market won't clear efficiently - maybe investment is too risky, the worst case future costs too high - there's a limited supply of capital willing to take such high risks; insurance has its limits etc.
You did say: "In monetary terms" - maybe you were moving the goalposts there; but if so, that's you, not the original article.
Wonder who would be interested in such a thing, google and spaceX are really the only two that come to mind, and I honestly can't come up with much of a reason for google to buy it.
However, I can't imagine why any commercial entity would be interested in burning cash in LEO, unless they have a very lucrative microgravity production requirement. But so far that scenario has just been a fable.
And more significantly, the infrastructure to get them up there, support the operation, and return them safely.
Is there a elevation that would be a stable orbit? Why not just boost it to that point?
If science were our goal we could have done much more science with the same money.
I strongly disagree with this statement. Here are 1052 pages of summaries of the results of scientific experiments on the ISS.
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/iss_tech...
But a lot of those experiments are "let's see what X does ... in space!", or rather, "in microgravity!." When all you have is a hammer, then you will do a lot of hammer science. But it's not that transferable, except in the most vague of terms - which that document does over and over.
To quantify it, that's 1052 pages of summaries across 11 years. And not all of them are science. Call it 95 pages of summaries per year. BTW, it's about 550 individual items, so 50 per year.
ISS cost, what, $100-$150 billion over 20 years, or 5-7 billion/year? The NIH budget is $32 billion/year, which goes to 50,000 grants. That's about 6x larger. In terms of science per dollar, I'm pretty sure an equivalent summary of the NIH-funded research would exceed 6x95 = ~600 pages.
The other definition of "good" is "better than average". For example, if microgravity gave a significantly better to make protein crystals for x-ray analysis, then that would be great science. But in practice, no, it isn't. There are only a handful of crystallization experiments in those 11 years of experiments, and one of the things we've found out is that ultra-centrifuges are more useful than microgravity. A lot cheaper too.
The quality of the science is about average for the fields I'm used to, and the cost is much higher. That's why I say "there hasn't been much good science" out of the ISS.
Farther orbits are just fine. SNAP-10A, a Soviet nuclear reactor, is in a 1,300-kilometer orbit which won't decay for 4,000 years (estimated).
"Stable" is also very relative. The Earth has been in a stable orbit for a few billion years, though it's not at a Lagrange point. A satellite in GEO has an effectively unlimited orbital life.
> The US-A programme was responsible for orbiting a total of 33 nuclear reactors, 31 of them BES-5 types with a capacity of providing about two kilowatts of power for the radar unit. In addition, in 1987 the Soviets launched two larger TOPAZ nuclear reactors (six kilowatts) in Kosmos satellites (Kosmos 1818 and Kosmos 1867) which were each capable of 6 months of operation.
SNAP-10A is a US nuclear reactor (the only US one launched, apparently), though the Soviets have launched bunches (just not that one.)
There are many trade offs involved but simply replacing it in 20 years is a much better plan.
It has ~100 commercial off-the-shelf Thinkpads on board¹, so none of those are radiation hardened for sure. I can't find any information on whether the mission critical computer systems are radiation hardened or not.
¹ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station#Co...
That's still selling it.
NASA only owns part of ISS... and without the other nation's modules, it's not much of a functional space station.
And maybe other stakeholders can be also convinced to sell, but apart from Russia they weren't planning to detach their modules and go alone.
Remember that the ISS started as "Freedom" NASA passed the designs of the various modules to be built by other nations.
I'd be more worried about how much force the structure can actually take - is it stiff enough to hold together if you strap a big rocket to the back and turn it on?
http://www.space.com/4432-nasa-weighs-excessive-vibrations-s...
The next version of the Dragon will dock with the station by it self just like the Soyuz does.
Delta-V Earth/Mars is 5,748 m/s, says http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/appmissiontable... .
That's 3.5 days of boost.
The ISS mass is 419,455 kg. The minimum energy needed is 1/2 m v^2 or 7E12 J.
A Saturn V is about 1E11J, says http://www.ocean.washington.edu/courses/envir215/energynumbe... .
So if you attach a few score Saturn Vs to ISS, you might be able to pull it off.
iss_mass = 419600
sep_isp = 4190
delta_v = 5748
htv_payload = 3310
falcon_launch_cost = 62000000
total_mass = iss_mass * math.exp(delta_v / (9.8 * sep_isp))
fuel_load = total_mass - iss_mass
dragon_launches = math.floor(fuel_load / htv_payload)
total_cost = dragon_launches * falcon_launch_cost
I get: Total vehicle mass: 482,646.89 kg
Fuel to add: 63,046.89 kg
Dragon 2 launches: 19
Total cost: $1,178,000,000.00
Not what you'd call cheap but at least in the realm of the possible. I'm assuming the ISS' solar panels (~120 kW [1]) is sufficient to power the thruster, that a dragon launch costs no more than a falcon launch (certainly false), and that the ion engine is already on board the station. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NEXT_(ion_thruster)
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_system_of_the_International_Space_StationThe station mass is 419,455 kg. F = ma so the acceleration is 1 µ G.
It will take a very long time to get to Mars that way.
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=acceleration+formula&ra...
The ISS just isn't very useful. A list of the four most exciting experiments: 1) 3D printing in zero G, 2) Growing yeast in zero G, 3) Virtual reality to provide an overlay for looking at the ground, and 4) a small teleoperated robot.[1] Those are science fair projects with a big budget.
[1] http://theweek.com/articles/446134/4-coolest-science-experim...
Space was the place. NASA 1962-1973
If you take the stance that space exploration/utilization isn't useful than it's possible to argue for decommissioning the ISS as a waste of money. However if you believe the ongoing exploration of space has significant value to the world it's hard to say the ISS is/will only be useful for science fair experiments.
Anybody remember Skylab? 1973 to 1979. Longest human time in space at the time, 84 days. And Mir, where Valeri Polyakov spent 438 days in zero G in 1994-1995.
At the risk of quoting all of this essay - http://idlewords.com/2005/08/a_rocket_to_nowhere.htm - from 2005, when the shuttle still flew:
At the now-usual cost of around a billion dollars , STS-95 spent ten days engaged in the following experiments: see how microgravity would affect cockroach growth, Studied a "space rose" to see what kinds of essential oils it would produce, at the suggestion of elementary school children, monitored everyday objects such as soap, crayons, and string to see whether their inertial mass would change in a weightless environment. Preliminary results suggest that Newton was right. Monitored the growth of fish eggs and rice plants in space, checked to see whether melatonin would make the crew sleepy (it did not)
Along with these craggy summits of basic research, the astronauts performed a raft of prepared experiments in metallurgy, medicine, fluid mechanics, embryology, and solar wind detection, all of which had one thing in common - they were designed to minimize crew interaction, in most cases requiring the astronauts to do little more than flip a switch (NASA policy requires that experiments on manned missions involve the crew)
Over the past three years, while the manned program has been firing styrofoam out of cannons on the ground, unmanned NASA and ESA programs have been putting landers on Titan, shooting chunks of metal into an inbound comet, driving rovers around Mars and continuing to gather a variety of priceless observations from the many active unmanned orbital telescopes and space probes sprinkled through the Solar System. At the same time, the skeleton crew on the ISS has been fixing toilets, debugging laptops, changing batteries, and speaking to the occasional elementary school over ham radio
The NASA obsession with elementary and middle school participation in space flight is curious, and demonstrates how low a status actual in-flight science has compared with orbital public relations. You are not likely to hear of CERN physicists colliding tin atoms sent to them by a primary school in Toulouse, or the Hubble space being turned around to point at waving middle schoolers on a playground in Texas, yet even the minimal two-man ISS crew - one short of the stated minimum needed to run the station - regularly takes time to talk to schoolchildren
This brings up a delicate point about justifying manned missions with science. In order to make any straight-faced claims about being cost effective, you have to cart an awful lot of science with you into orbit, which in turns means you need to make the experiments as easy to operate as possible. But if the experiments are all automated, you remove the rationale for sending a manned mission in the first place. Apart from question-begging experiments on the physiology of space flight, there is little you can do to resolve this dilemma. In essence, each 'pure science' Shuttle science mission consists of several dozen automated experiments alongside an enormous, irrelevant, repeated experiment in keeping a group of primates alive and healthy outside the atmosphere.
The science which was advanced, effective, worth doing, could have been done more cheaply with unmanned launches of automated experiments and no ISS.
[..]
NASA dismisses such helpful suggetions as unworthy of its mission of 'exploration' [..] Of course, the great explorers of the 1500's did not sail endlessly back and forth a hundred miles off the coast of Portugal, [..] The interesting bits in space are all much further away, and we have not paid them a visit since 1972. In fact, despite an ambitious "Vision for Space Exploration", there seems to be no mandate or interest in pursuing this kind of exploration, and all the significant deadlines are pushed comfortably past the tenure of incumbent politicians.
The goal cannot be to have a safe space program - rocket science is going to remain difficult and risky. But we have the right to demand that the space program have some purpose beyond trying to keep its participants alive.
Your casual mention of 'ongoing exploration of space' is deceptive because manned missions to the ISS aren't part of the ongoing exploration of space, by virtue of them not doing any actual exploring.
Several of the goals for the ISS (at least from NASA's perspective) were based on getting experience operating in space for extended periods of time, for human health, for construction and engineering, and for operations over inter-planetary length periods. Experience and knowledge on all those fronts is needed to progress to further out, more isolated manned missions.
It's also not quite true in sentiment to say that humans survive in zero-g the same way they did in 1969. None of the early space missions spent that much time in zero-g, and we continue to learn a lot even after MIR and Skylab about the lack of gravity and radiation on human health.
Even now there is new research coming out of the Apollo-era missions related to human health. [1]
A similar situation exists exploring the depths of the ocean. You don't build a submersible to go 7km down until you've got a good grasp of operating at 300m. Likewise it's still quite valuable to explore at 300m since there's a lot we don't know (far more than LEO) even though we've been to 7km.
Putting humans into space at all is hugely difficult and expensive. There were a lot of arguments in the scientific community against a manned mission to the moon. And it's completely fair to consider the ROI and dollar/manpower value spent on manned space (and the ISS in particular.) I personally think there is huge value to manned space exploration beyond first-order economics, and from that perspective I think the ISS has and continues to accomplish much more than just random science projects. Especially given the political constraints it operates under.
[1] https://news.fsu.edu/news/science-technology/2016/07/28/apol...
Has anything been learnt from ISS about zero-G manufacturing that might make it a suitable platform for such by a private group?
Isn't the ISS supposed to be a staying waypoint for a mission to Mars?
Proctor and Gamble wants to better understand why colloids(shampoo, liquid detergents, medicine) separate, because that affects the shelf life of their products. If they can turn off gravity, they can figure out what other processes cause colloids to separate besides just gravity.
As far as manufacturing goes, there are not many products that are worth making in space right now. You need a product that is more valuable per unit mass than the cost per unit mass to launch something to LEO.
Now the interesting thing is that there have been commercial products manufactured in space. Latex microspheres were produced on the space shuttle and sold as calibration sources for microscopes.[1] Because microscope calibration needs literally microscopic amounts of these microsphere, per unit mass the product was very valuable.
[0] http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/news/comm... [1]http://www.panix.com/~kingdon/space/manuf.html [1]http://www.panix.com/~kingdon/space/manuf.html
SpacePharma is designing an end-to-end biological and chemical lab that can be launched on cubesats to perform experiments in zero g at the fraction of the cost and they aren't the only ones.
http://www.geektime.com/2016/01/06/beyond-spacex-10-space-co...
[1] He never answered so its likely he never read it.
[2] https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/604657main_4-%20GER%20Stakeholders%...
If that is not feasible I believe that at the end of it's life we should try to place it on the moons surface as intact as possible. It's parts could be salvaged to build a base, etc. It makes sense to take anything that is end of life in orbit around the earth and send it to the moons surface. Sort of like a wrecking yard that future generations might use for parts if there is ever a moon settlement.
Remember that it took an entire Saturn V rocket to launch 3 people and a pair of tiny spacecraft to the Moon, which is relatively close. The ISS weighs 420Mg; the Apollo LM+CSM pair weighed about a tenth of that.
Landing it on the Moon would also not be possible, because that would require an engine capable of accelerating the ISS at approximately 1/6g.