The Election Won’t Be Rigged, But It Could Be Hacked
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
The party's game is to win seats in Congress and the Presidency. Not win fairly. Not win "by the rules". To win, at whatever cost, as long as that cost isn't the elected positions themselves.
>As long as they aren't doing something directly illegal
Manipulating votes on a voting machine would definitely be directly illegal.
What's to say the GOP or DEMs are not partly or majority owned by some external money? Thanks to Citizens United and SuperPACs you simply can't know.
All maps may be biased, but not all maps are equally biased, so there's still room for refinement.
You could define "nothing up my sleeve" measures, similar to the way some cryptographers pick arbitrary constants in ways that are possibly biased, but unlikely to be selected in advance according to that bias.
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/10/a_million_ran...
So for example, there are some systems that automatically divide states into districts, though a looser version would be to accept proposals and choose the one that most effectively satisfies certain reasonable constraints.
https://handsoffredistricting.net/opra-explained/
http://bdistricting.com/about.html#other
It would require a thorough study to determine if these methods biased political power towards or away from population centers. Many political issues have an urban rural split, so that's not a trivial issue.
They would be at least an incremental improvement over intentionally gerrymandered districts though, where the probability of bias is approximately 1.
https://priceonomics.com/algorithm-the-unfairness-of-gerryma...
Gerrymandering relies on a guideline to conserve resources in game theory: win by a little and lose by a lot. That is, pick the districts you lose and pack opponents into those districts. Edge out competition in others.
If you incorporated exit polling data and revised your constraints to draw districts to create as many tossup districts as possible based on recent elections, then you should find a district map that is the most weakly gerrymandered. It will still have some aesthetically unappealing shapes, some salamander districts. But while the shape of districts can illustrate gerrymandering, I don't think it's the real concern.
Fedor judged systems on how likely it was for the representation to match the statewide split in the voters. If that's the real standard of fairness, the easiest solution would probably just be proportional representation.
Thanks for flagging the article, interesting stuff.
Mattingly and Vaughan found slightly different results, even looking at the same state:
https://politicalwire.com/2014/11/29/study-shows-how-gerryma...
Seems like a contentious issue in political science.
The Colorado elections used paper ballots (complete with "hanging chads") and from what I could tell were run pretty fair and square. One year there were some problems with some of the kids from the local college where rich Easterners send their lower-caliber offspring when they can't get into the Ivy League. They flooded a particular precinct insisting that they be given provisional ballots (name not on the list and ballots not counted unless it's close). They didn't meet the requirements even for those ballots and some threw a hissy fit. The local prosecutor discovered that many had already voted absentee back in their home state. They were not prosecuted, unfortunately.
In North Carolina in '06, the precinct captain ran it by the books. In '08, same precinct, same captain, many were allowed to vote provisionally even though they didn't meet the requirements (didn't live in the county they were trying to vote in). Others told me it was similar in other precincts.
Paper ballots, ID, and lots of well-trained observers seem to be the best way to avoid the threats from social engineering and hack attacks on the integrity of the voting process. I would even go for the purple dye they use on the thumbs of voters in some countries to prevent people from traveling precinct to precinct to vote for dead people and people who have moved away who are still on the rolls. (There are more than you probably think.)
In general, my observation has been that the voting process has become more corrupt over the past 20 years. It's just damn hard to catch it if the people who are supposed to enforce the rules don't care to.
I'm genuinely confused by the idea that those provisional votes could actually effect the outcome if cast fraudulent ly.
This is actually where we are as a country. It's depressing.
If we offered same-day voter registration at every polling place, or had automatic voter registration by virtue of some other government process, this would be a non-issue.
I would be ok with voter ID laws which accepted a multitude of valid existing documents. E.g if you allow passport, driver license, state ID, SS card and birth cert then there probably does not exist a person whom does not have at least one of those.
In Canada, this is how it works [0]. If you don't have photo ID, you can show an ID with name and an ID with name and address (where "ID" is defined very broadly and includes things like credit card statements or letters issued by university residences and soup kitchens). While this requirement still has an onus on the underprivileged, the ID legislation is very focused on allowing as many people as possible to vote.
You can register on the day of the election. Canadian (federal) elections also are still counted by hand.
I'm not saying it's perfect, but it generally works with few problems. This is what legislation designed to mitigate fraud, while still acting in good faith to let everyone vote, looks like.
[0]:http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=ids&doc...
Passports, driver licenses, and state IDs are dependent upon first having an SS card and/or birth certificate, depending on the state. Therefore, we can narrow the nexus down to a birth certificate or an SS card.
There are plenty of domestically-born citizens who do not have an SS card (based on some state birth procedures I am familiar with, acquiring a federal SS number at birth is optional at the choice of the parents).
There are also plenty of people who were not born in the US, but have become naturalized citizens.
So it seems that there would be plenty of people who have neither of those nexuses.
I don't have ball in the game (not US citizen), but your argument is flawed, specifically in two cases:
- Domestically-born citizens who do not have an SS card but have a birth certificate.
- Naturalized citizens without birth certificate but have SS.
You didn't specify why it could happen that these two cases would not cover everyone in your two listings.
Of course, a citizen is normally eligible to get such documents by applying at whichever bureau. But, it is conceivable that some people don't have them.
Practically speaking, it is difficult to live life in the US without an SS number/card. You can't open a bank account, get identity documents, (get a passport?), get student loans, or be a employee in a company that wants to record your SS for tax compliance purposes.
Anecdotally, I have read that some people refuse to give their kids a number at birth via SS. This then means they have to go through extra paperwork later in life if they want to get one when they are adults.
Also anecdotally, I was renewing my driver's license recently, and I overheard the 40+ year old woman at the counter next to me tell the clerk she never had a driver's license or a state ID.
She seemed pretty embarrassed about it, probably because without a driver's license or state ID, it's clear that she wasn't able to participate in things like opening a bank account, for which a photo ID is required (unless she had a passport).
If this all seems kind of crazy, just consider that in the US, the federal government, state government and individual are all sovereign, just in different and sometimes overlapping ways.
Regulations on some things, for example driver's licenses, private mailboxes (and maybe bank accounts?), got tightened up/federalized with the passing of the Patriot Act/Real ID Act in (2004?). For example, to open a private mailbox, I have to fill out a federal form now. Additionally, I can no longer use that mailbox as a registered address for a bank account.
Did you use any kind of federal identifier, for example an EIN (something you can apply to the feds to get, often used for businesses), or did you use your passport/passport number, or none of the above?
It can't be that hard to find a non-white single working mother who had her purse with her driver's license in it stolen.
The patterns in what forms of ID were deemed acceptable (eg. gun licenses but not student IDs), the limited options for obtaining the free IDs that states are required to make available (eg. office open only of the fifth Wednesday of the month), and the other restrictions often enacted simultaneously (eg. reduced early voting times and locations) all add up to an undeniable pattern of discriminatory intent, especially when the coordinating efforts of organizations like ALEC are considered. Voter ID, for all that it may be justifiable in some incarnations, has been tainted by association with bigotry for at least the next generation or two. The problems with our elections will either have to be solved through other means, or at least with a very different kind of voter ID system.
Its also concerning given the history of discriminating against black voters in this country.
http://static1.squarespace.com/static/579f40a01b631bd12f10c2...
This paper argues that the 2016 primaries were hacked based on the fact that (among other arguements):
There was consistent discrepencies between paper and machine voting results, favoring Clinton and against Trump.
Clinton and Trump support was corralated with precinct size
Demographics are not sufficent to explain the above observations.
I have not verified the accuracy of this analysis, or found other commentary on it.
It's not so much that it's inaccurate as that it's not really anything but an op-ed with some basic data.
The general form of it is thus: "here is some data. I'm saying it means X, which could be explained in Y way or tampering but I won't say it can be explained other ways. Here's a very handwaving explanation of why Y doesn't fit, so I therefore conclude that it must be tampering... I will now devote lots of pages to conspiracy theories about who and why this tampering was done - assuming that I am correct and there is no other explanation."
It's a reddit post writ-large, basically.
They could have a happy touch screen UI that is easy to localize, and then print out a human-readable paper ballot for the voter to review and then drop into a physical ballot box. And you could have one machine with a special printer to produce raised-character printing for blind voters to verify.
All the advantages of a computer UI and very few of the disadvantages of the DRE voting machines.
The only reason I can see why we use voting machines run by criminals is that the powers-that-be want it that way. No amount of ineptitude can survive for 15 years without a small group benefitting immensely (and then selling that access).
[1] https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20031218/0933248.shtml
Most election tampering requires a pretty big conspiracy and is therefore hard to pull off on a large enough scale to change the outcome without being caught, but electronic voting with no paper trail makes it possible for someone to do just that without more than one or a handful of people knowing about it, which I think makes it the biggest threat to the accuracy and credibility of elections in the United States.
Even in the absence of real election fraud, if the voters have no credible reason to believe it didn't happen, then the election system ought to be fixed. Ideally, the burden of proof should be on election officials to show that the results are correct, not on activists to prove fraud.
I see no reason to think that the actual election in November won't also be rigged to the maximum extent possible for Clinton.
And, again, in the general, I've seen no evidence that the Clinton camp is vastly less moral than the GOP/Trump camp- why attribute all potential rigging to Clinton when the GOP has just as much reason to pull the same tricks?
I just don't see how, if widespread primary rigging is effective and not all that difficult (since the DNC, who really aren't all THAT clever, supposedly "rigged" it without much in the way of repercussions) Trump could end up the GOP nominee against the wishes of the GOP elite.
It's quite easy to explain Clinton's win without any shady "rigging." It's quite difficult to manufacture 3 million net votes- that's either a lot of ballot-box stuffing or a huge voter disenfranchisement campaign and there's no evidence of either. The simplest explanation is that the Dem constituency consists of people who want her.
Have you been near a college campus anytime... I don't know... Ever?
The physical ID manufacturing isn't the hard part and never would be. It's finding the identity you're masquerading as and then actually standing in line at a voting booth.
That's just a lack of creativity. A popular mechanism in the past was the false-bottom ballot box (the man who first brought that to SF in the 1800s was rewarded handsomely, reported by Irving Stone).
You can have ghost voters, for example. People registered at addresses that don't exist, then bus people from precinct to precinct voting multiple times. Also, people register to vote in two different places: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/200...
I have seen foreigners vote with my own eyes. I don't know how common that is (or any of it is, actually), but that is something that happens.
How could you possibly know they're not entitled to vote? Did you know them personally? Were you aware fully of their immigration status?
You listed two possible ways in your post.
EDIT: To be clear, I am asking specifically how you know you saw people who were ineligible to vote voting. A follow up would also be why you observed this and didn't tell anyone.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2016/08/Mandella-Regi...
How prevalent those are, the full impact, etc. are debatable, but it seems a little naive to say those things never happen at all or that people who suspect they happen are crazy conspiracy theorists.
Yes, the electoral system and general statistics of the election mean in any one case that doesn't necessarily sway the outcome. Which is why I said the impact is debatable but to deny it could happen is naive.
While elections have been rigged from the very beginning (ballot stuffing etc.), "voter fraud" is an invented concept that didn't exist before passage of the Voting Rights Act.
and that it is completely feasible to pretend to be another person when voting: https://youtu.be/pZMU2oMJNHU
But, since you asked, here is a scenario that I think is entirely plausible: A group of over-zealous activists travel to a very tight state with a handful of close precincts. They look up recent deaths in the areas and get a list of 1000 names and addresses that they then use to vote, each voting multiple times. They simply go in, give the name and address, and vote, then go to another polling location and repeat. Other groups decide on other tactics. A poll worker decides to stuff a box. A hacker changes a few 100 votes just to see if she can. No one technique alone would have swayed the election, but in concert they push it to the opposite of what a 100% fair election would have been.
In this scenario, note that there is no big evil conspiracy - just a handful of misguided people taking actions with a collective big consequence.
Obviously the risk of fraud has to be weighed against the risk that someone due a vote will be unable to do so because they couldn't obtain an ID or lost it. It's also worth pointing out that before the general election, the various shenanigans of the primaries and two parties mean that the general is not really "fair" before it even starts. Again, my point is that it's not "ridiculous" to posit that US elections have systemic flaws that could sway the outcome.
Just make a $1,000,000 reward for anyone exposing a conspiracy to rig an election, and audit the voter rolls on close elections, and impose stiff penalties for voter fraud.
These are all cheaper and probably more effective than voter ID laws. Strangely, these kinds of approaches come up far less than imposing an ID requirement. Also, mail in voter fraud is a far greater risk, yet is also ignored.
Voter ID laws are a cynical and despicable evil.
Even if it the US election was rigged, very possible US wouldn't even care.
Again, possible that all Americans would reject it, but seems possible that they would not.