Hope you reserved your iPad. Apple just ran out. | Hacker News Reader

Hope you reserved your iPad. Apple just ran out.

9to5mac.com

31 pointsFlemlord26 comments

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise. Apple running out of a new product on release just seems to be a given at this point.

It's almost like they plan on this issue...

It's also almost like it would be logistically inefficient to stockpile enough product ensure 100% availability on launch day.

Just-in-time inventory?

Handling massive spikes in JIT manufacturing sounds really difficult.

Not particularly, JIT is based on proper forecasting, something difficult to do with new products (especially form Apple's standpoint). It is more appropriate with established products, which may have spikes in their demand (iPods get bought more during Christmas).

Scarcity is a good business model. When it happens all the time its not a bad sales projection, its a business model.

Apple marketing is very predictable these days.

1) Create a new product.

2) Release controlled leaks and rumors.

3) Make a well orchestrated, public release in front of media.

4) Announce a release date and allow pre-order.

5) Announce inventory ran out, regardless of the volume of sales, before the official release date.

Yes, this was pretty much my thought. I guess sarcasm doesn't come out well in short sentences, but no big deal.

There's no reason for Apple or anyone to oversupply on opening day. In Apple's case, by shutting down preorders they generate press just because they're declaring it full. If you open a site to beta traffic with signup, then get coverage at a place like Techcruch, and shut down signups with only 10 users but don't delcare it, the press will think you're a hot item if you don't provide numbers.

That isn't exactly the case with Apple, of course -- they are a hot item. Without numbers, though... they could have sold 10 or 10 million. I'm sure the other estimates made in the thread circling 250,000 are close though.

Actual economic scarcity is pretty much the only business model, but I think you are using the term differently. A profit-maximizing enterprise should be looking for market clearing volume and pricing. Produce more than the market will consume at a given price point and you have excess inventory; produce less and you leak your potential profit into the secondary market.

I'm pretty sure there is value in creating the _perception_ of scarcity (nee exclusivity) for one's product... but that should also be conveyed in the price.

So does the pre-order process help Apple? They now have advance information on the demand for the product 1-2 weeks in advance of the launch.

No. Just think about how hard it is to actually manage the task of production - to get things right and not end up with a bunch of defective or badly designed hardware that gets returned. So you see how scarcity is unavoidable (basic economics), and artificial scarcity is a bad business model (basic economics again: Apple would gladly make more money faster if they could!)

Terrible planning! How could that possibly be in Apple's interest? Oh wait: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influence_Science_and_Practice

""" People tend to want things as they become less available. This has led advertisers to promote goods as "limited availability", or "short time only".

It has also been shown that when information is restricted (such as through censorship), people want the information more and will hold that information in higher regard.

Items are also given a higher value when they were once in high supply but have now become scarce."""

Is it intentional or just the fact that ramping up production on a (almost) completely new product is a difficult ask?

Either way I'm reminded of this comic from the PS3 vs Wii days. http://www.vgcats.com/comics/?strip_id=212 which I present without comment.

Some reports suggest that Apple is having trouble sourcing touch panels.

http://www.macrumors.com/2010/03/26/apples-ipad-touch-panel-...

I beg to differ with the hype that 'everyone is getting one'. I know LOADS of people (tech people, even ObjC devs) who are not getting one - either they don't want one from the first production run or they don't want one at all.

I'm building an iPad-orientated site for launch but I'm happy using the SDK and don't have any interest in actually owning one.

I'm not getting one, and it's not just because I barely earn enough to pay rent. I don't know what I would do with it. I have a laptop that I haven't even booted up in a year. I might get around to making some apps for it once Flash CS5 comes out with iPhone app export. I'd rather not bother with objective-C if I don't have to.

If you compare the iPad sales to that of the iPhone when it first came out it looks like the iPad will be at least as popular as the iPhone. Sure you probably can't just extrapolate like that but still, if I had to guess I'd take Apple's side.

Stores will still have extra stock for people who didn't reserve one (just called Apple Store SF, though they didn't know how many they'd have). Also, Best Buy is apparently going to be selling them on launch day, though that isn't confirmed yet: http://www.engadget.com/2010/03/27/leaked-image-says-ipad-la...

I want an iPad for browsing leisurely from my couch or bedroom. I don't want to see web advertisements though, and I won't be able to install Firefox + adblock or some kind of ad filtering proxy on the machine. I suppose I could configure a transparent proxy on my network, but that sounds like a pain. For me the closed nature of the device might be a deal breaker.

I reserved two -- the first being a 16 and then I thought maybe I'd like a 32, so I reserved that last night -- I'm only getting one, so someone will be lucky.

Its wild though, the 32 is about 635 with tax + 43 for a case + 76 for apple car, that is a good 750 for the thing.

Given the limits of the iPad (it running a stripped OS), are you at all nervous about the worth of the purchase. I really love the idea, and the OS will make it lightning fast vs a typical computer that you wait for programs to load, but 750 can buy you a great lightweight 13inch laptop, or 2 netbooks with 3g. (I hope this is not insulting at all, I am just interested about the hype)

I have two laptops and a desktop, not looking for another full-featured computer. I love the idea of a "big iphone" or simplified computer that does a few things well. I guess I'm a tech whore. Im interested in the JooJoo and Norton Adam too, its just that the iPad has a huge lead when it comes to software.

It certainly seems that the iPad will be a hit. I'm planning to spend most of April 3rd at the Apple store in my mall. I can't wait to just touch one!

But I'm not going to buy one until the 3G version is out later in April. (The cheap 3G service is just too compelling to pass up.)

Apple isn't taking reservations for ipad V2 or V3 yet, so no worries here.

Oh not, I'll have to wait a few weeks for the next production run and suffer with owning a device that's had the inevitable Object 1.0 hardware fixes!

The best estimates peg 250,000 sold to date:

http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/

Today's news would seem to validate this - given a few weeks back they estimated that preliminary run would be limited to 300,000:

"An unspecified production problem at the iPad's manufacturer, Hon Hai Precision, will likely limit the launch region to the US and the number of units available to roughly 300K in the month of march, far lower than the company's initial estimate of 1,000K units."

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?threadid=10742...

Assuming that means 50k in the retail channel, should be interesting.

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