Why the iPad Will Change Everything
newsweek.com
newsweek.com
Will it displace desktops and laptops? Not for people who use them to get work done. Anyone writing a book probably won't use an iPad - nor will someone writing software, or doing accounting/etc. It will, however, one day replace the things "most" people use computers for - consuming media, articles, videos, writing short blogs, etc.
At it's heart - it's a consumption device with some capabilities of creating. The content creation capabilities will simply get stronger with time (UX mockup tools, Keynote/presentation tools, sketching applications, etc). As the tablet/touch-interface market expands and more companies get in the game, things will only get better. More tablets will come, more 3rd party hardware addons will come - creators will be enabled.
Do I wish it ran OSX-Full, instead of iPhone OS? Yes, but while I wish that, I also see the fact that using an OS designed for a touch-based system is superior than a normal OS with touch-based interactivity "bolted on".
Anyone doubting how intuitive and natural a touch-based system is to work with should try handing an iPhone to a two year old. They can figure it out much more quickly than a mouse and keyboard. My poor daughter (my guinea pig) can pick up my iphone, switch screens, find and start her game(s) in seconds. She's still flummoxed by my laptop/touchpad and the little mouse icon on the screen.
Great point. I disagree about the iPad not being good for writing books. Won't Incase or Mophie come up with a $100 keyboard/case that turns this into a laptop? I think the app ecosystem will be greatly augmented by a hardware eco-system. I'm bullish on the platform.
The applications will make or break the device ultimately.
I'm amazed how much the success or failure of sophisticated computer products depends on their default configuration - this would seem especially true in Apple space where the reason to pay Apple's hefty prices is "it just works", not "it works once you go out and buy an accessory that you now have to carry around and worry about loosing or breaking".
Even if what most people use a computer for doesn't seem serious, they do it seriously and don't want to have to stop doing it after ten minutes because their machine is completely unergonomic (the Ipad is 1.5 pounds, trying holding that with one hand http://www.apple.com/ipad/specs/)
Just as much, if you peel students, office workers, tech professionals and artists away from "everyone", you've got a smaller "everyone" than you'd think (especially office workers). A lot of people don't do that much word processing on their machines. But a lot of people would unhappy if they couldn't do any word processing on their machine.
The Internet has been more successful than any walled garden because people's needs are actually more varied than concept "consumer-end" allows for. I expect the Ipad's failure to reinforce this concept.
I will be very interested to hear real-world feedback about the usage patterns and ergonomics of it as people really use it - and people will, including tech people, writers, bloggers, etc.
And that's with paperbacks. This thing is 1.5 pounds.
A thick paperback can easily be two pounds.
But paperback can folded or even dropped. You don't need to free one hand to interact with it.
Amazon Kindle is 10 onces. The controls are to the bottom and the side. It's specifically limited to reading.
If a iPad user has to select an icon in the middle of screen on a regular basis, it will be an ergonomic challenge.
Remember, a standard desktop or lap is actually already hard on the body.
Touch-based is an important consideration. I find it impossible to use a laptop when standing up, e.g. on the train. I can, however, write in a notebook, read a book or what-have-you.
There's plenty of demand for it. Most people just don't know they want one yet. As I argued in my article after the iPad launch, people who don't actually want a computer will be buying this in droves (instead of wasting money on ugly, powerless netbooks - which are priced in the same region!).
I am not prescient, the iPad may be a huge success, but there currently not a large market for tablets. There were large markets for portable music players and smart phones when Apple entered those fields.
Edit: To clarify, I mean sad that they don't just send him some. Since, you know, he helped start the company and everything.
I also pre-ordered, but I will note that I do all of the above with my rather old tc1100 tablet. (A p4 just barely squeaks by with video.) Even now, I'm posting to HN from bed using the phenomenal Windows XP Tablet handwriting recognition.
The iPad will change everything not because it's new. It will change everything because of its execution.
While my 13" MacBook Pro rests on my knees, I can smoke with one hand, hold my coffee in the other hand, and read this article at the same time. I started it in the kitchen and finished in the bedroom.
How is iPad going to make my life better? Will I be able to do 3 things at a time with it? I suspect one hand will always be busy holding the thing. It will get tired, let alone that I won't be able to smoke and have my coffee and read an article (and always have the UNIX shell at hand) at the same time.
This seems like an iPad killer in the bad sense to me. I'm sorry.
Seriously though, the iPad isn't made for the likes of us on Hacker News (though I still kinda want one). It's for people like my father who don't really give a damn what a computer is as long as it's easy to use.
My iPad will weigh half as much and won't require a stylus.
Hell, I've watched whole TV shows on the bus with my iPod Touch. And don't get me started on games. There will be plenty of problems with the device, it's a 1.0, but there will be plenty of people really, really happy with it.
I'll stick with my Eeepc; I'd just get Egg McMuffin grease on the touchscreen anyway. And I wouldn't be able to play MAME while I'm standing in line at the DMV.
Vanilla Dock: $30
Keyboard Dock: $70 (looks really flimsy and has a fixed angle)
Case: $40 (need to protect that screen if you're going to carry this thing around)
Camera connection kit: $30 (you need a dock to use this)
VGA adapter: $30 (you need a dock to use this too)
Basic set of accessories: up to $170
Total Price: $1000. Hmm... nice round number, huh?
So much for a $500 revolutionary computing device.
Correct me if I'm wrong – although I don't think I am - but, isn't the point of wifi that you don't need to stay tethered to a router? And the iPad supports 802.11n, so you'll be able to get a decent range with a pretty cheap router. Definitely enough to cover your house and yard.
The $500 model also has 16GB of storage, and I have no idea if that's a lot or a little. Since 64GB is available I assume 16GB is not much.
The size of a movie won't change if you have a 16 or 64GB iPad. And as with everything else, if its enough space or not depends on what you use it for. Personally, 8GB is more than enough space for me, on my iPod touch (and 16GB on my Pre is excessive for what I need). So, I preordered a 16GB iPad.
The availability of a greater size doesn't change the amount of information a smaller size can hold. 16GB is 16GB, regardless of the existence of a 64GB model. It just that there are different sizes that cost different amounts of money.
Total Price: $1000. Hmm... nice round number, huh?
$670-$700 being rounded up to $1000 is a big jump.
There's going to be a world of difference between the 3G and non-3G iPads. I can say this from experience having gotten used to my Blackberry with its internet browser (crappy as it is) and my laptop with a Verizon Wireless WWAN card. Having real full internet access wherever you go, without having to search for WiFi access points, changes the way you behave. That's part of the revolution Jobs is talking about with the iPad, but you've got to get one of the 3G models to experience it.
Regarding storage, like I said I really don't know how much I need. I know how much space a movie could take up, which is probably the biggest single thing I would store, but I'm likely to want a few of them. The real question is the applications; how much space do they need? I know that a laptop with 16GB free after installing the OS would be very cramped, but 64GB free is fairly typical (given 80-112GB laptop harddrives.)
The $1000 price point is for the 64GB 3G iPad with a full set of accessories (not the vanilla dock though.) There's no rounding; it adds up to $1000.
My hunch is that these first attempts by magazines will look cool but feel really gimmicky, to the point that they're a bit of a joke. Think cheesy quizzes and games and video content that's been available on the web for weeks (remember, these digital magazines will take time to produce). I wrote about this topic a bit more back in January if you're interested: http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/26/apple-tablet-book-revolutio...
I know it's not the environment where you'd normally use the device, but still - how are you even supposed to hold it?
The closed and managed system is not an option for Apple, it is essential to the success of the product.
It may be elegant but I would rather a more open device even at the cost of some "Ease of use."
"Why we wish the iPad will change everything for us publishers".
There's a market for that. But I don't see it as being "transformational" in any significant way.
Netbooks do that already, and with a real keyboard.
The combination of features, form factor, and App Store, will put all of the above within reach with practically no requirement for being tech savvy. That's "transformational". I can do everything the iPad will do with my 4 year old tablet. But only the truly tech savvy would tinker with it as much as I have to get it to that point, and it's still not as slick as the iPad appears to be. I suspect my 71 year old Dad will be able to pull his out of the box, turn it on, and have an even slicker experience.
Lots of non tech-savvy folks with money will want one.