http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/05/05/037929
http://www.pnas.org/content/113/24/6647/F2.expansion.html
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289615...
https://jasoncollins.org/2016/07/22/kaufmanns-shall-the-reli...
The main driving factor seems to be educated people (and women in particular; some studies have found positive selection for men) not having children.