This assumes the opportunity's to generate 1.5m in value are finite and all developers are equivalent. Both are rather sketchy assumptions. I might have a 1% chance of preforming an amputation successfully. But, the people with an 90% chancing of doing the same are worth vastly more.

Out of 100 developers 10 might save you 1.5million and getting the correct 2 might save you 3 million.