Uber to Sell China Business to Rival Didi After Losing Billions
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
However, if Uber's China business is worth only $7 billion, and their current valuation is $68 billion, does that mean the rest of the world is worth 9x China, even though China is one of their largest and highest potential market? Suddenly the valuation of Uber's business outside China looks very inflated (even more than before). Doesn't it?
Consequently, I would conjecture that China was never a large part of Uber's valuation. Leaving it at slightly more than 10% of their valuation seems reasonably realistic to me. Keep in mind:
* The major Chinese cities generally have very developed and efficient systems of mass public transit, reducing demand for rideshares (and cars in general)
* While China is a large country, not everyone can afford an automobile or a rideshare service. There are many reasons why scooters are so popular in SE Asia; this is one of them.
This will be the biggest market for uber like services, if it isn't already. But it is also way cheaper here, so that changes the dynamics a bit.
This depends on your frame of reference. If you're comparing with SF, sure. If you're comparing with London or New York, less so. In London, the underground is faster than private car for many (most?) daytime journeys. In Beijing and Shanghai, a private car is almost always faster. Subway stations are spaced too far apart, and the walking involved in changing lines is pretty long. Buses are slower than cars even at times when bus lanes are active.
"While China is a large country, not everyone can afford an automobile or a rideshare service."
The people who don't have cars are precisely the people who use rideshare services.
Compared with the West, in China, ridesharing fares are lower, and the cost of owning+operating a car is higher. I ride Uber 10-15 times per week. The total cost of those rides is 20%-30% of what it would cost to lease and operate my own car, even if parking were free (which it's not).
owning/operating a car > using a rideshare > using a personal scooter > using a personal bicycle.
You have to keep in mind that bicycles, scooters, and other small vehicles unsuitable for ridesharing are very popular in China. Since few people own and operate cars, rideshares don't have a large market to undercut.
But ridesharing means I almost never have to worry about availability, and now my scooter is gathering dust.
... > using a personal bicycle > public bicycle
But aside from that, perhaps we're just traveling to/from different places, and hence have a different set of experiences. Here are some specific examples of journeys that are almost always faster for me by car than by public transport.
- Dongzhimen area (5 mins walk from the station) to Financial Street (10 mins walk from Fuchengmen station)
- Jiaodaokou to Tuspark in Wudaokou
- Jiaodaokou to Xi'erqi
- Anywhere to Sanlitun (except on Fri/Sat night)
Now Shanghai is completely different, but Beijing is still way behind.
Yup, at Wudaokou this adds >5 minutes at rush hour.
"Now Shanghai is completely different"
I used to think that, until I started a lot of time in Shanghai. Surprisingly, getting from Hongqiao airport to somewhere in Pudong can be faster by car, even the whole subway journey is on line 2. The difference is not as stark as in Beijing, but it still exists.
"I've shifted my schedule"
Yup. It makes so much sense.
Can't remember if I've even been to the Shanghai subway, but the feeling inside in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are like Beijing, but even more foul-smelling. Traffic is also really really bad though, so at least on the subway you know it's going to take an hour instead of the "30 minutes or 3 hours?" estimate you get by car.
Now Hong Kong is completely different... for now.
> I would conjecture that China was never a large part of Uber's valuation
These two statements are not exactly congruent. Investors in later funding rounds would have expected their investment to be used to grow the valuation. In other words, they were funding the losses in China so they should expect a return.... unless they were just investing in Uber due to FOMO.
"If we spend a billion in China now we'll make it!"
(Year later)
"Lots of competition but this time it's different!"
(Something something China)
"OK maybe this isn't working out. Let's salvage what we can"
Scooters? Everyone hates them.
Personal experience: my hometown is a medium city (with a population of ~3 million in urban area), the taxi system there is so broken. Because of the medallion system, to maximize the profit/cost ratio, taxi drivers usually operate their cars 24 hours a day with two shifts. Day shifts are usually taken by locals, and they will try their best not to serve you if the trip goes through traffic-jammed area or remote places. I understand their economic reasoning though. The worst part is every afternoon from 4pm to 6pm, when shift change happens, every taxi driver will refuse your ride request unless you happen to be ride sharing with them to their shift change stops(pretty ironic I think). So as a rider you basically beg for a ride.
That's how Uber/Didi win. You don't beg, you don't worry, you don't get pissed off. You uses an app then you get on a car with better fare (thanks to those steep discounts)
Remember, this is just one city with population of 3MM, there are more than 100 of such cities (with population of 1~3 million) in China. But Uber is not operating in my hometown, let alone many others.
Uber is slow to adopt Alipay or Wechat pay. Uber is slow in expansion.
The taxi experience is the US is bad because of heavy regulation without competition. Competition is the only thing that helps.
I would conjecture the opposite as Uber investors were pitched on the China growth story
> Four out of the top 10 are now in China, according to an email sent by Uber CEO Travis Kalanick to investors and obtained by the Financial Times.
> In the request for money from investors, Kalanick explained just how fast the company is growing:
> Passengers in China are taking 1 million trips per day. Uber is in 11 cities in China, but plans to launch in 50 more cities that have a population of more than five million this year. These are all cities comparable to the size of Miami, Kalanick said in the email.
> Four out of Uber's 10 largest cities are in China.
> After nine months in Chengdu, the city is seeing 479 times the number of trips that New York did at the same mark. Hangzhou is 422 times larger than New York at the same nine-month mark and it is adding 200,000 residents a week.
> The company is planning on investing more than $1 billion into UberChina, which goes by YouBu or "an excellent step forward", locally.
> It is now the largest market outside of the U.S., and "at the current growth trajectory, will most likely surpass the US before year-end," Kalanick said int he email.
Uber probably had something in the ballpark of 20% market share in China so it sounds like the two decided to simply make peace and become profitable together instead of duking it out for years on end and throwing away billions.
"Uber Technologies will receive 5.89 percent of the combined company with preferred equity interest equal to 17.7 percent of the economic benefits."
source - http://www.priceoftravel.com/6536/price-of-a-5-kilometer-ube...
Also seemed like Uber were going wild at the time - Easter weekend was totally free for all riders all weekend iirc.
Uber needs to not just be successful, it needs to be MASSIVELY successful. It's valued at north of $60B! If it makes a bunch of modest deals that are successful to the tune of making a 15% return on investment, and that investment is $2B, then it needs like 20 of those deals to justify its valuation, much less to grow.
At risk of pointing out the obvious, there aren't 20 Chinas. And Uber doesn't have $40B to spend on a series of 20 $2B deals.
Uber's entire existence for at least the last five years has been predicated on being a major global game-changer. Anything that is less than "major global game-changer" for them is a failure.
"Investors in Uber China, an entity owned by San Francisco-based Uber, Baidu Inc. and others, will receive a 20 percent stake in Didi, the people said. "
Does that $2bn 'investment' figure include the $1bn/year losses they were incurring competing with Didi? Uber ploughed in more than $2bn into China, and got less than $7bn (as sibling comment says, the $7bn is not all going to Uber).
I agree on the second point - the value of whatever percentage Uber owns is likely to go up.
Travis Kalanick is not.
It's called Chaebol (재벌) in Korea, Zaibatsu (財閥) in Japan, is there a name for it in modern China?
They are children and in-laws of of influential "communists" who regularly end up as generals, CEOs and heads of NGOs in their thirties.
Samsung, Daewoo, Hyundai - pretty much any big Korean firm is Chaebol.
[1] http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/10/does-this-r...
http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/in-plain-sight/asian-american...
People said the same thing about Korean companies and Japanese companies.
The Chinese will continue to push into international markets and will grow to be incredibly competitive with western corporations.
Really naive to think otherwise...
(taken from an unrelated comment in this thread - see below)
[1] http://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/publishing/antitr...
For me, it is a convenience app to hail a taxi, nothing more nor less. Taxis in China are very inexpensive.
For ride shares, also pay outside the app, having hailed via it one-time. Driver is happy to have a regular ride-share.
And frankly, I'm happy to pay taxi-rate fares, that again are nothing in comparison to North American or European rates, for the convenience.
I would imagine this speaks to mounting pressure on Uber to begin producing real profits. If so, expect many changes in the coming year+ as the company's unit economics (outside its usurious car leases) are clearly still abysmal in almost all markets.
https://techcrunch.com/2016/04/11/lyft-and-didi-kuaidi-launc...
If the partnership remains in place, then this is likely a good thing for Lyft. Recall that, unlike Uber, Lyft wasn't trying to storm China and establish itself as a direct player there. Rather, they established a collaboration with Did whereby each company's customers could benefit from the other company's services in their respective countries. As such, assuming the partnership remains alive, this would mean Lyft has an even stronger partner now in China.
Obviously we can't take their statements at face value, but Uber seems to be claiming they are profitable in most markets.
https://newsroom.uber.com/insurance-for-uberx-with-rideshari...
As soon as the driver opens the app, they have to provide the same full insurance, for every driver.
Because in that moment the private insurance stops being valid.
This is a more accurate title being used by major news media:
"Uber sells Chinese business to Didi Chuxing" - http://www.bbc.com/news/36938812
"Didi Chuxing to Buy Uber’s China Operations" - http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-s-didi-chuxing-to-acquire-...
It is also being used in Didi's official Weibo (in Chinese): http://weibo.com/2838754010/E1ykp4eJn?refer_flag=1001030101_...
"滴滴出行宣布收购优步中国,融合资源,促进中国移动出行行业更健康发展。"
"Didi Chuxing announces the acquisition of Uber China, (for) integration of resources and facilitating Chinese mobile transportation business for healthier development."
Edit: typo
Didi and Uber China have been in fierce competition for quite a long time, both of them gave consumers HUGE discount. For example, Uber is showing me a promotion which I can go as far as 5 KM around at the cost of just 5 RMB (0.75$).
After merging, I'm afraid we won't see such a low price anymore.
Here in India, because of the price war between Ola and Uber, you can travel for as low as $0.04/km - cheaper than even the cheapest mode of transport (rickshaws).
> From disruption to state-sanctioned monopoly in the blink of an eye. Welcome to the Chinese internet
> http://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-in-china-why-foreigners-nev...
So that's where Apple's $1 billion in Didi[1] just went!
[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-china-idUSKCN0Y404W
"The deal with Didi Chuxing comes just days after China agreed to provide a legal framework for taxi-ordering apps. Both Uber and Didi have welcomed the decision, having previously operated in a legal grey area in the country. While the apps are widely popular, they have undermined business for normal taxis and have been met with protests by cab drivers. The new rules will take effect on 1 November and will, among other things, forbid such platforms to operate below cost."
New regulation prohibits ride subsidizing. Meaning no way for Uber to increase its market share by subsidizing rides after November 1st.
Ok, seriously?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_compan...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_r...
Fact is, China has monopoly and merger control laws.
Hm. This makes me wonder if their strategy for doing that is price fixing. The merger lets them do that legally.
Are there any other serious players in the market in China?
>Jean Liu, the president of Didi, is the daughter of Chinese businessman and Lenovo founder Liu Chuanzhi, and the granddaughter of Liu Gushu, a senior executive banker at the Bank of China.
this deal a long with the entrenched interests almost assure a government sanctioned monopoly.
https://techcrunch.com/2016/04/11/lyft-and-didi-kuaidi-launc...
https://techcrunch.com/2015/12/03/lyft-didi-ola-and-grabtaxi...
You mean obtained it, like it isn't available to the general public or something? Did they let you make a copy or was it FYEO?
I'm not sure what's the fantasy on China. I'd personally prefer winning the 6b population markets over the 1.3b.
Sure, it takes time, but in a long run it is more sustainable. But obviously in a startup world, a sustainable business without the hyper-growth is not much valued.
They may IPO (if they are indeed profitable and don't want to keep looking for Series N style fundraising), although I doubt it, and if they did, it's definitely unlikely to be anywhere near $100 billion.
Facebook's IPO was much larger at $104B
I would love to see documents like SEC filings from Uber, but they won't release those except to investors until they IPO, so it's a catch-22...
This is well said.
I wouldn't be surprised.
China is a huge, closed economy .. where doing business in the country means buying into powerful business families. Money stays within the family!