Onward from the Hard Fork
blog.ethereum.org
blog.ethereum.org
But it is a little unsatisfactory to have this ad-hoc method of hard forking. Maybe there should be in future some sort of public process to determine whether an action is consistent with the intentional meaning of the contract (as opposed to the machine meaning). We could all agree to appoint some qualified person to hear disputes and determine whether the code has got it wrong and we should fix the code with a hard fork. Let's call that person a 'judge'.
Now that judge will need to have procedures and rules. He or she isn't deciding on a whim, after all. These rules will set out things like what evidence the judge can look at to determine the intentional meaning of the contract. Just for giggles, let's call one of those rules the 'parol evidence rule'. Also, we don't want anyone to be able to bug the judge and waste their time, so we need some rules as to who can ask the judge to look at a dispute. I'm feeling creative, so let's call those rules 'standing rules'.
What would be really fabulous is if this system could be paid by the taxpayer out of general revenue. That way we can reduce the likelihood of the biggest, richest investors bribing the judges.
But this is obviously all fantasy. No one would ever build such a system.
We always knew this, and we always knew that the same was true of Bitcoin (so-called 51% attack). The only point of note is that there was a coordinated effort to take this option - one which will not likely be possible in a future larger network.
Saying "this is possible in Bitcoin" despite its large size then try to downplay Ethereum's same risk when it gets bigger just seems an odd way to justify Ethereum's value to me (an outsider to all cryptocurrencies). Between the two, Ethereum has the proven history of generating the coordinated effort. Bitcoin does not. So if both are the same size, the cryptocurrency's specific community and history is a factor in its value. I would rather avoid the smart contracts that Ethereum has as it seems like a liability.
The remaining question is if you think that the actions of a developer and early-adopter community around one of those technologies in its infancy should affect it's long-term valuation and capability. This seems silly to me. It would be like if Reddit wiped out everyone's karma when there were 100 users and then debating if this meant Reddit was no longer valuable - of course not. In this case it's even stronger, because having large numbers of users implicitly makes these sorts of events more difficult to pull off.
In effect, people actually trust Bitcoin to be a "source of truth", and that transactions won't go away just because a small oligopoly of developers decided they didn't like the way a perfectly legitimate transaction went down.
Blockchains are as immutable as the people who look at them decide they are. They're still pretty useful for creating reliable sources of truth.
I like how the market is quickly rejecting it though
It's like if you liked a company but disliked the board, and the board accidentally fired themselves
Then you have Ethereum Classic
According to Poloniex, as of this post, trade volume for ETC (via BTC) is double that of ETH today. And asking price for ETC is up 140% while ETH is down -8%.
So this fork isn't over - in fact, there's still no guarantee it will succeed; the ETC vs ETH battle has just begun.
It also makes sense that it would be making big gains. It just crashed basically to zero, there's nowhere to go but up.
Neither of these metrics suggest long term viability to me. Although I am surprised it's trading as well as it is. 10% of ETH is pretty good!
There may be another factor involved here; perhaps the 'hive mind' (market) is arriving to a realization...
The really strange thing this week is "Steem", which came out of nowhere a month ago and is now supposedly the #3 cryptocurrency. This appears to be some kind of heavily premined scam.
It had always been clear that there would be bugs and exploitable logic flaws in contracts. It's inherent to the platform. It does feel like a change in philosophy has happened now that people have invested in it, their principles are more pragmatic and less idealistic, which might be good short term but inevitably undermine the project.
The idea behind the project are still good I think, and position regarding this type of incidents will be a litmus test for future platforms based on similar concepts.
Note that Ethereum was just used for speculation so far. Had the same thing happened on Bitcoin, it would wreak havoc to its reputation and utility as a token to transfer wealth...most importantly because it would destroy two very important properties: Immutability and fungibility.
Ethereum developers don't seem to care that much about those properties so far.
No doubt developers went through a few extremely stressful weeks.
For that reason, I suppose Ethereum will continue to exist and draw support.
That's what a virtual currency lacks - someone that is a large portion of your spending that won't accept any other currency as payment. The US government is a large portion of my spending and won't accept non-USD payments.
The fact that you need to pay the government money in the currency they mandate means you'll use their currency. That guarantees users. For a virtual currency, there's no one demanding that I use it - at least no one that's a significant portion of my life that I can't avoid. So, I can easily leave and never come back. But if I lose faith in the US Dollar, I still need a significant portion of my income in dollars to give to the government.
Not if you're addicted to mail-order drugs that is!
For Ethereum no such mechanism exists.
I had my share of moving internationally and it's not trivial occasionally (although Transferwise took most of the hurt out by now!) but https://steemit.com/ethereum/@pauls/ethereum-fork-step-by-st... this is ridiculous.
Ah yes the downvote brigade is here. Hi!
My interest in Ethereum is twofold:
1) I got into open source software at a time when you ran software locally. An OSS project could just post a tarball and users could download it, modify it, and use it. That meant hosting costs were low for the developers, and most of the computational cost was born by the users. This system has broken down in the X-as-a-Service era. If an open source developer wants to build a web service, they have to basically pay the entire computing bill for their users, which can get exorbitant if your software is popular.
Ethereum is a way to socialize the hosting costs. I can write software as an Ethereum contract, put it onto the network, and then users can pay for their own hosting. I can do the work of setting up the necessary software infrastructure, and they can pay for it without having to do the work of maintaining their own server instance. Something like Ethereum is needed to bring about a resurgence in end-user open source software.
2) Bitcoin has value because it can do some useful tasks, but not very many. You can keep a ledger, transfer funds to another person. That's about it. That's an advantage: it's the first mover, and it is very narrow in scope. It's easy to reason about, and offers a clear value proposition. It is useful the way Western Union is useful, or the way your savings account is useful. Those are big markets, and Bitcoin is worth whatever amount of value it takes to float some large number of transactions from the time of purchase to the time of sale.
Ethereum does function as a currency, but that's almost a side effect. Instead of just burning cycles on transaction processing the way Bitcoin does, Ethereum actually does valuable work. It is useful the way Google is useful, or the way Microsoft Word is useful. And those are really big markets, and growing. Ethereum is potentially worth whatever amount of value is required to float that computational power between the time of purchase and the time of execution. That could be a quite large number.
I think there will be a lot of projects like Ethereum, which do valuable work in a decentralized way and use a currency to float the running computational costs. Ethereum is the first credible such system we've seen and appears to be fairly general purpose. Whether it is The One, or just The First One leaves to be seen.
But as a speculator in currencies, I think it's a great diversification after you've invested in Bitcoin. And I am quite certain there will be another down the line.
2) Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. It never was anything else and it will never be anything else. That temporarily you can trade shares in a Ponzi scheme without being badly burned is certainly a novelty but beyond that, it's a typical, very old scam.
Consensus? The hard fork has majority support, not consensus.
1. Majority of opinion: The consensus of the group was that they should meet twice a month.
Regardless, you can make up all kind of reasons (for both sides), to justify this or that being the default action. But in the end, it's all assumptions of other people's intention, and those are always causing trouble.
There is a reason quorum is required for most type of serious voting.