A "concrete sign" in the form a a virtual graph showing some obscure figure (PMI or purchasing managers index) produced by some obscure group (Markit) has dropped.
> ... some obscure group (Markit) ...
Markit Ltd. is a global, financial information
and services company with over 4,000 employees,
founded in 2003 as independent source of credit
derivative pricing.
Revenue US$ $1.5 billion
Further, the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS) seems to agree with them. This was reported in the press:
The abrupt and large fall in both orders
and output reported by IHS Markit and the
CIPS clearly makes a recession in the
second half of 2016 a real risk. Similar
results for August and September would
suggest a 0.4% contraction in the economy
in the third quarter. It only takes two
successive quarters of contraction to
constitute a technical recession. [1]
However, it's really not looking good. I personally know of lucrative contracts that have been cancelled, terminated, or delayed.
By all means feel free to regard all this as scare-mongering, but don't hold that attitude by default way past the point where the trend becomes obvious.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markit
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/22/post-brexit...