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Comment by gwern | Hacker News Reader

I wonder who's going to sign up to put their cargo on the first refurb rocket? I suppose SpaceX will be offering steep discounts in order to prove the prototype.

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Food and consumables for the ISS, or low-cost satellite launch are likely targets.

A kilogram of water on Earth is worth a few pennies. In space, it's worth $5,000 - $10,000. The value-add difference is the launch cost.

Take a bunch of cheap stuff you'd like to have (but don't need essentially, and can readily replace), and pack it on a refurbed booster. If successful, you've gained a few thousand dollars per kg mass. If failed, you're only out the source materials (and the booster, though since this is a test, it's the outcome that's most significant).

Even if the payload is cheap, the second stage and delivery vehicle (dragon) are not.

But that is irrelevant to the customer. They just care about their own replacement costs (including time).

For fuel delivery to LEO, the delivery vehicle could be quite cheap. Even the Dragon might be an overkill. Perhaps a simple tank with a simple RCS assembly would be enough.

They already have a buyer, though there is some dispute between SpaceX and them about the level of discount. I think 33% off was what SpaceX is offering, they want more on the range of 50% off.

The truly hard part for SpaceX has been getting tthe insurance providers onbaord.

I'd be surprised if any insurer would touch the first few re-uses of a first stage, considering how risk averse they are... For the largest commercial market segment which is geostationary telecom satellites in the 1900 to 6000 kilogram size range, they only insure well known and proven launch vehicles. I could see the first stage re-use being used for a government launch of a geostationary weather satellite or similar, or perhaps a NASA funded development project like launching a spare TDRS-type satellite, but I'd be surprised to see a commercial client like Intelsat, AsiaSat, Eutelsat, Arabsat, etc.

Actually it's more the reverse: the insurance market is pretty competitive, and most GEO comsats are purchased by a small number of companies that launch a lot. That leaves a lot of room for pressure on an insurer.

You'd be surprised at what insurers are willing to insure. It just depends on what price. Just because there is no specific data about reusable rockets doesn't mean it can't be insured based on other factors.

Depending on the price of insurance, launching with a reused rocket could be more expensive than a new one. The discount that SpaceX is offering is relatively small compared to the cost of replacing a satellite, if I recall correctly.

I would bet there are a number of insurers willing to do so, if only to get their foot in the door for suture launches. They may require some sort of data sharing to allow them to develop actuarial models, which would then mean they could offer truly competitive insurance rates...

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