Jakob Nielsen: 80-20 rule applies to the page fold
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* On Amazon, they did a quick-read of the top, and scrolled past a huge amount of info to get to the meat - the non-5-or-1 star review. Note that the one focused on is a 3-star, and the only non-5-or-1. Frequently, the 5 and 1 star reviews are fluff, so of course people skim past them to get to the more-perceived-as objective reviews.
* On JC Penny, were they just browsing, or looking to buy? I'd be willing to be that staring at sofas doesn't tickle many people's fancy unless they're seriously shopping. Sure, the fold applies to passive skimmers, but find someone determined to find something and I'd be willing to bet you'd see a significantly different eye-pattern. And note that the site isn't particularly heavy above-the-fold: JC Penny's site makes almost no money from people who aren't buying something, why should they worry about passive skimmers in their design? They're already past the front, attention-grabbing pages and into product lists, they're either buying or they're not.
* On the Zyflo CR site, note what content is at the top. Bulleted lists, images, bold, colorful text, etc. Eyecatching. And note how much they read further down the page, because it's all informative. The last bulleted list being skimmed is inconsequential once you realize what the list contains: things already said in the content above it. Other thin areas are excessively technical to most readers, so of course they weren't giving it as much information as the more generally applicable content.
The last site in particular strongly implies the opposite. Note how heavy above-the-fold it is, and how much was read further: http://www.zyflocr.com/zyflocr-healthcare.htm (yes, the article arguably "explains" this by stating that good AtF content encourages people to read further. It still contradicts the 80/20 theory, and seems to me that it implies FAR more that well-designed, easily-scanned information is more likely to be read.)
"I picked examples where users scrolled more or less all the way down — often there's no viewing of the bottom because users don't scroll that far."
I don't know exactly how frequently "often" is, but I think those examples were just to show what happens when people actually do scroll down. He's suggesting that most of the time they don't.
However any designer or UI person worth their salt innately knows 95% of everything he has ever said, and applies it intuitively while balancing a dozen other issues which Nielsen pretends don't exist (branding, innovation, gameplay, etc). Nielsen's biggest achievement has been branding himself as a top-tier usability expert when in fact probably every high school in America has at least one aspiring designer with a better understanding of how people actually use computers.
The problem with Nielsen and his like is that they talk about averages but fragmented.
Everyone worth their salary know that it's a balance question not an average question and that looking at users instead of customers simply isn't useful.
Yes above the fold is where we keep our navigation, main messages etc. most designers know this and design for this, which might as well make his argument circular.
Users look because that is where we have taken extra care to design.
His conclusion really detracts important understanding from another area which is.
How much can you put above the fold without creating a paradox of choice situation which can be much more damaging.
Eye-tracking is fine but it only really tell a very tiny fraction of the story.
Walt Disney used to call this "visual weenies"
If you put a face looking at you in there you will also see users spend a disproportionate amount of time to look at the picture.
Whether it's circular I don't know but this kind of analysis is in my mind too simplistic.
I am pretty sure if you turned it around so that the most recent comment was at the top it would still be the same.
If I behaved like that I'd never seen nice and interesting eye tracking diagrams in the middle of that post.
For that article what's above the fold is quite boring in comparison to the rest.