Self-Driving Tesla Was Involved in Fatal Crash, U.S. Says
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
It's not reasonable to expect that -- and this sort of thing will happen when you rely on that system working.
Edit: Also I realize that technically you are always driving. By driving here I mean in the active sense -- no automatic steering or cruise control
But I also like that they dumbed it down that I have to have the hand on the steering wheel otherwise it complains loudly.
Automotive car crashes should be investigated with the rigour of aeroplane crashes. The only way to make it safer for the next driver is to learn as much from the bug here and fix it.
I also strongly believe that cars should pass a rigorous test of edge cases and be scored on that.
Tesla, by intent, has built a system right in the middle of the "deadly valley". Tesla's "autopilot" is just lane-keeping and smart cruise control. All the major auto manufacturers have comparable technology, and many high-end cars ship with it now. But the bigger players have avoided promoting it as automatic driving, and restrict the technology to avoid driver over-reliance.
Google and Volvo both have better systems then Tesla's, but aren't shipping them yet. They both take the position that safety is their problem, not the driver's. Volvo's CEO has said publicly that if one of our cars gets into an accident while in auto mode, it's our fault. Tesla blames the driver.
Similarly plane accidents are perceived way more and that perception persist over decades: "A sold-out 727 jet would have to crash every day of the week, with no survivors, to equal the highway deaths per year in this (USA) country." http://anxieties.com/flying-howsafe.php#.V3YVE5N95AY
What that means for AI? Either we create 1000x more safer AI than humans, or we self-driving cars would face harsh public/regulatory opposition?
The perception of danger in planes and self-driving cars is perceived as such due to lack of control. If a plane is about to crash, there's not much to do besides hold and pray. If your car accelerates when it's supposed to brake, you better be paying attention and act fast to avoid a crash. With your hands on the wheel, you're always in a position to act, and it's easier to believe that there's always something you can do to avoid disaster.
Think about that for a second. How does that happen? Sounds like the truck was jack knifing, making an absurdly abrupt lane change, or the highway was not completed divided. Either way it's not like it was simply rear-ended, the car went under the side of the truck.
I'm not a Tesla apologist by any stretch but this sounds like a bit of a freak thing. My guess is the physical sensor wouldn't pick up something that high off the ground (keep in mind this was the side of the truck not the back where there is a bumper) and any camera sensors didn't have enough contrast. To prevent this they would have to have sensors point UP and forward, which I would guess they will be doing after this.
Even in the case of "mostly" autonomous vehicles where it could be argued that the human driver was lulled into complacency.
And it's unclear if the insurance industry would shoulder that like they do human errors. Serious accidents can bankrupt responsible people after insurance is exhausted, and those would all now be concentrated on manufacturers with much deeper pockets. Plus there's all the single-vehicle accidents which currently don't result in lawsuits, but would with autonomous vehicles.
Aviation autopilot is very much "set waypoints, sit back", as if anything goes awry it lets you know, loudly, and then you have time to deal with whatever needs dealing with. The whole reason autopilot was developed was to combat fatigue related accidents - and it works.
"and maintain situational awareness." Some failures can happen quickly, and the plane can change modes unexpectedly. Plus the warnings you receive may not be accurate.. see Air France 447.
You can sit back, but your role is to constantly check your instruments, your performance, your route, your radios and your environment.
Autonomous cars on the other hand seem to be targeted just at that, allowing the driver to do something else like read or text or something.
Using a soccer analogy, I can go to sleep watching certain Euro Cup 2016 matches, but if I were playing on the field, obviously that changes everything. With self-driving cars, I'm somewhere in the middle (basically, a benched player).
Apart from that, it is important to remember that fatal accident statistics are not just numbers, but are tabulations of individual tragedy. My condolences to his family, but sadly we can not expect autonomous cars to be perfect in the first try.
[0] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/30/tesla-aut...
[1] http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/04/car-makers-cant-drive-th...
That said, all Model S are expensive and fairly new care with good safety features compared to the average car on the road today. Thus,I wonder if it is better to compare the 1 fatality / 130 million miles statistic to Model S (and S-class / 7-series) fatality rates while not on Autopilot mode.
You may be more likely to have an "accident" elsewhere.
But im reasonably sure that you are much more likely to die at highway speeds.
This is one of the great things about tesla logging everything tho.
The data is there to "prove" it one way of the other.
Two factors for that tho. Firstly is bad road markings. Which computers will be infinately better at handling.
But more importantly is the response time of emergency services and letting someone know theres been an accident.
Even minor injuries end up fatal if no one finds you trapped in the car for a week. And every second counts for more serious collisions.
Only so much manufacturers can do about either.
Dui and driver fatigue. As you will see are among the big killers. (And before you think "yeah but i dont drive drunk or tired" remember you arent the only person on the road).
Think its just about being carefull with what is meant by "safer" and "other types of driving".
You are more likely to have an accident in busy periods on busy roads.
But you are much more likely to die if you have an accident somewhere quiet or on high speed roads.
Your other points back up the claim though - self driving cars need to be compared to like-for-like mortality: same roads, same demographic, similar safety features. My guess is they're currently considerably less safe.
Does anyone else find it fascinating that for computers to be considered "safe" they must be as close to 100% as you can get, when the equivalent human drivers have fatal accidents every single day?
So if you see a Tesla car crashing on days with white sky, you want to know whether this can happens to you as well.
I can't even imagine the resistance to self-driving cars once they're actually viable. Who even enjoys driving on city roads anymore? Or on highways? I drove on American freeways and it was mind-numbingly dull. Just acres of concrete all along the road with nothing interesting to see or do.
I drive motorcycle (and enjoy that), I doubt autopilot will come to those anytime soon..
In the future though, it will always be your fault, because you are one person trying to prove an accident was not your fault against a big-money company. Good luck.
That's why I always wear videoregistrator on my helmet. It paid off for itself many times already.
I would expect that it's quite easy to autopilot a tractor on the road. They already use autopilot in the field.
[1] https://www.precisionfarmingdealer.com/articles/2211-retrofi...
In Lithuania it's even worse, around 60% (2014 data).
[1] http://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/search/object/nmah...
Who even enjoys writing code any more? It's just line after line of characters on a screen, with nothing interesting to see or do.
Yet another american claim that "I don't like something, therefore no one else must like it either", with the usual view that because something is terrible in America, it must be terrible everywhere.
Driving has now become a choice between the dull, automated driving I did in America, or the mad, chaotic rush I see on Indian roads.
Neither of these are enjoyable or even particularly safe
Keep in mind, you're just below the world average (17) at that value. So while Im sure Indian roads are as bad as their reputation, there are worse.
I live in Thailand, on the same list (when sorted by deaths by 100K inhabitants), we're #2 (right behind Libya), with 36.2; the deaths per year for here was 24K, based on a population of just 65 million.
My point is, I know what it's like to drive on dangerous roads, and I still dispute your claim that driving is either boring or dangerous.
Even driving across the Eyre highway from Adelaide to Perth (~2700km), part of which is the '90 mile straight' - a section of road with 0 bends for 145km - is something I can look back and be glad I've done it.
If you personally don't enjoy driving, or feel unsafe driving, you personally can take actions based on that, such as taking a bus or taxi, or car pooling etc.
But don't somehow think that because your homeland has a reputation for bad roads, and America has apparently boring roads, that no one else on the planet enjoys driving.
Statistically, autopilot is orders of magnitude safer than humans.
If there's a story here, it's about how the US doesn't require underrun protection on trucks, thus making them death traps, but that wouldn't be anywhere near as good for circulation as a "rise of the machines, they want to kill you" story.
I wouldn't be surprised if autopilot is safer, but I think it is overstating things to say this is a statistical fact.
Source? I hear that it is imperfect software.
Computers have to be 100% safe because self-driving cars take control away from the user. And where does the blame lie in an accident? With the owner of the vehicle, the 'operator' at the time of the accident, the 3rd party developers who were contracted by Tesla/Nissan/BMW, or the car company themselves? Getting customer service and a dealership to admit responsibility for parts failure as it is today is near impossible.
It's fine for people to be be pro self-driving cars but it is wrong to dismiss any and every criticism of an emerging technology on that basis alone.
> Karl Brauer, an analyst with the auto research firm Kelley Blue Book, said the accident served as a signal that the technology might not be as advanced and ready for the market as some proponents have suggested.
> "This is a bit of a wake-up call," Mr. Brauer said. "People who were maybe too aggressive in taking the position that we're almost there, this technology is going to be in the market very soon, maybe need to reassess that."
I think that's perfectly reasonable, e.g. it may take 5 or 10 years to reach some kind of approved minimum safety level, especially since such safety approval standards/processes are still being developed. Just because Tesla's cars already have an "auto-pilot mode" doesn't mean the technology's ready for widespread deployment.
Regarding "as close to 100% as you can get", that's not stated in the article. Instead, it says:
> The federal traffic safety agency is nearing the release of a new set of guidelines and regulations regarding the testing of self-driving vehicles on public roads. They are expected to be released in July.
> At a recent technology conference in Novi, Mich., the agency's leader, Mark Rosekind, said self-driving cars should at least be twice as safe as human drivers to result in a significant reduction in roadway deaths. "We need to start with two times better," Mr. Rosekind said. "We need to set a higher bar if we expect safety to actually be a benefit here."
Again, I think that's reasonable. While a fully-automated road system would probably be safer than human drivers, we're not going to get an overnight switch; the harder problem is the transition, with manually- and autonomously-driven cars coexisting.
It's not just a case of swapping out more and more cars, since self-driving cars will behave and interact in different ways (as an obvious example, looking at the occupants won't give you any information about intentions/gestures/etc.); hence it's worth waiting until a threshold higher than break-even is reached before beginning the transition.
The key factor in whether this is a legitimate flaw in Tesla's system is: could an alert, competent driver easily avoid the accident?. An alternate formulation of this criteria is: would it be relatively easy for an engineer to hard-code a brute-force solution to the edge case, if they really wanted to?
Obviously we'll need to see the crash video to verify, but my guess is the answer is yes, this is a legitimate flaw in Tesla's system. Tesla's system should have been able to detect a car traveling perpendicular to the highway [2]. Tesla's system was unfortunately not sophisticated enough to detect a car that an alert human would be able to detect in their peripheral vision, and their system was not sophisticated enough to perform the simple action that a human would be able to perform (slamming on brakes). In fact, if they ever want to scale up to a full urban-capable system this is a situation they need to be able to handle.
Examples of accidents where I wouldn't blame Tesla's system: the other car swerves across the center divide and hits you head on, the other car is speeding and rear ends you, the car in the next lane swerves into you, the tire blows out and you hit a tree, etc. Although in the long-term we would ideally have systems that could handle these situations.
[1] We need to wait for more miles and (inevitable) accidents to be logged rather than rely on this one data point. Also my guess is highway driving is less fatality prone than urban driving, on a per-mile basis.
When I'm in traffic, I notice myself communicating with other people a lot. Most commonly it's just brief eye contact ("I have seen you"), but it enables smooth and safe traffic for everyone.
Just blindly following rules and reacting to your immediate surroundings won't work in large scale. There are plenty of situations where that would end up in a deadlock traffic jam (e.g. 4 way intersection with no right of way).
This is by no means an impossible task, I just have not heard of an effort trying to solve it yet.
The obituary of the driver, Joshua Brown, is now available. Age 40. Former Navy explosive ordnance disposal specialist. Worked with Navy SEALs. Studied physics and computer science. CEO of Internet of Things startup.[2] It would be hard to find someone more qualified to operate a vehicle with Tesla's "autopilot". Placing the blame on that driver probably isn't going to fly.
The NHTSA is investigating.[3]
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12011419 [2] http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2016/06/30/t... [3] http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/owners/RecentInvestigations
Combine that with the fact the truck was high enough that it was over the hood of the car (and therefor probably over the hight of many of the sensors).
I don't think as a human I would have done any better.
Therefore I predict that this accident (and other future ones) will not significantly slow down the development, and adoption of self-driving cars...
[citation needed]
Tesla press release says this is the first accident in 130 million miles, whereas other vehicles had an accident every 94 million miles.
But that includes old cars, old drivers, drunk drivers etc.
Doesn't seem that much safer
- https://www.reddit.com/r/Showerthoughts/comments/4n9tbv/tesl...
EDIT: From the Tesla website:
> Every single Model S now rolling out of the factory includes a forward radar, 12 long range ultrasonic sensors positioned to sense 16 feet around the car in every direction at all speeds, a forward looking camera, and a high precision, digitally controlled electric assist braking system.
https://www.teslamotors.com/de_AT/blog/dual-motor-model-s-an...
I know my car has all the sensors mounted low. I'm not a radar expert. If the side of the truck was significantly above where the radar is looking would it be able to see it?
Also something I've said before, I wouldn't be a "beta tester" of self-driving technology for at least the first 10 years. I think that's stupid, but hey I'm glad others are willing to die to prove the technology for me, I guess. Even if you trust companies like Google, Tesla, or Apple to do it right, the hype could spill over to other companies like say Fiat, who are clueless about software, but will also offer "self-driving" tech, and people will believe it's just as good, when it may be far from it.
Make them pay for every accident that happens because of their technology, and you'll see how quickly they improve it and how carefully they release the technology. No other regulation may be needed. Other regulations may not be sufficient on their own anyway, and the auto-makers will just do the minimum necessary to comply with them, but that could still mean people could end up dead under those regulations.
This is such a slippery slope, especially in lawsuit crazy USA.
> I wouldn't be a "beta tester" of self-driving technology for at least the first 10 years.
Yes, I totally agree.
> Make them pay for every accident that happens because of their technology, and you'll see how quickly they improve it and how carefully they release the technology.
I don't agree that the civil legal system is the right way to solve this. I also don't believe software developers for Tesla should be criminally charged for the death of drivers if it's shown that the software developers were not negligent.
What I really want to see happen, is that any autonomous cars have their software independently and fully audited before they're shipped in production vehicles.
This way, there is a neutral third party, certified by the NTSB, that certifies whether a self-driving car is road legal.
We hold drivers responsible if they kill someone while behind the wheel. I think that we're setting ourselves for a dangerous precedent if we also expect to hold software developers criminally liable. This is why the software in self driving cars must be audited and certified. This means there is a legal burden on software developers to provide safe software, and it removes the criminal liability component should there be a crash.
Treat self driving car crashes less like a witch hunt, and more like an airplane accident. In airplane accidents, no one is trying to point the finger, everyone is simply trying to determine the cause, and how it can be avoided in the future.
> Other regulations may not be sufficient on their own anyway, and the auto-makers will just do the minimum necessary to comply with them
Exactly. This is why tougher regulations are needed. IIRC even ECU code in ICE cars is currently audited. This emerged during the Toyota accelerator lawsuit.[1]
...or you'll see how quickly the industry dies off instead of pursuing the technology. I am not sure I want driverless car tech to go the way nuclear tech did in the 70's (via fear, banned tech, and large introduction of costly regulations). Some kind of balance is needed. An extreme solution won't be beneficial in the long run.
[0] http://www.salterhealy.com/blog/who-is-at-fault-in-a-left-ha...
>Autopilot has been used for more than 130 million miles, noting that, on average, a fatality occurs every 94 million miles in the US and every 60 million miles worldwide.
This technology, even if imperfect, serves to make driving safer for the user, not the other way around. It's your choice not to be a beta tester; certainly no one will be forcing you.
And as others have said, the one at fault in this particular accident is the (very human) semi truck driver.