Today’s Renters Are Worse Off Than Their Parents
blogs.wsj.com
blogs.wsj.com
What if we lived in world where real estate was not an illiquid investment, with extremely high barriers to entry?
What if the monies taken in rent actually accrued equity by some schedule?
What if you could move at any point without losing your equity?
Crazy ideas, I know ... but via example:
1. developer builds a house, has 100% equity.
2. new tenant moves in and starts paying "rent", building up equity.
3. Costs for repairs and maintenance have to be paid per your equity percentage (so if I've accrued 20% equity, I have to pay 20% of the plumber's bill while I'm living there).
4. When the tenant inevitably moves, they take their 20% equity, and are paid 20% of the next tenant's rent payments, while still paying 20% of maintenance costs ... this % of course decreases as the new tenant makes more payments.
This gives you the mobility to move from city to city to follow jobs, while avoiding the money drain that is renting (ie. paying someone else's mortgage). If a tenant stays in that property long enough, they will eventually reach 100% ownership of the property, they will have purchased your "shares" in the house. So it remains an investment that you can get returns from, but those returns do not last forever.
I know, it's a crazy idea; in fact, this is the first time I've ever told anyone else about it ... but I think if it can be structured right, it could change society forever since real estate is one of the areas that is increasingly unavailable to the "have nots", thus contributing to ever-greater inequality.
However you also have to be very careful around this with regards to banking laws and even some local regulations will discourage it. The problem with taking your equity is that it likely is taxable an taxable on enough levels to make it not worth anyone's while.
Now taking you idea further, you have a developer/startup/etc that owns units across the country with a form of interchangeable ownership. I think the logistics might sink it and if the company managing it all ever went bankrupt you would come out on the losing end. I guess it would end up being a more equitable time share?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/30-fixed-mortgage-rates-fall-1...
And this is not theoretical, the usual way to get a mortgage around here is Euribor with a margin for the bank added, practically no-one gets decades-long fixed mortgages.
Making a transaction more complex doesn't change the fundamentals. You either save and buy, or take a loan out and buy, or you don't buy. Anything else involves some form of charity.
Market dynamics are not magic. If it's not profitable to lend money, no one will.
The only way I could see rates hitting zero would be if the government started charging interest on money sitting in banks. Such an event would not be a sign of good housing opportunities so much as a sign of significant economic struggles.
Just one example.
Islamic banks still profit from loans.
Islamic banks do not provide interest free money. They just use a variety of different legal structures so that there isn't anything explicitly called interest in the agreements. Usually involving the bank buying the asset and selling back to the borrower at an inflated price.
The only reason the banks accept such a piddling sum is because they immediately sell the loan to a government-run corporation(or maybe skim the interest for a year or two).
In the 1800s before the government stepped in, you had to put 50% down, your interest rates were more like 11%, and while the loan was amortized over 30 years it ended after 5 years, so you'd have a 25-years balloon payment at the end. That's about what it would take for me to consider that loan worth it. The modern term for a loan that isn't sold to the government is a 'portfolio loan', and some smaller banks or hard money lenders will give it to you. Expect 1800s-style loan terms for an 1800s-style loan.
The only time I'd loan money out at 3.25% if I were expecting you to default, and wanted to get your 20% down payment for free when I foreclosed as the noteholder.
[1] Okay, I might actually take it in that case. But not because it's a good deal on paper.
Being ignorant of the situation, I went to fact check this statement and was blown away by how true it is. I'm flabbergasted at the amount of involvement the US government has in the mortage market. More reading if anyone is interested:
1. https://www.frbatlanta.org/banking/publications/financial-up... (Somewhat outdated but mostly good info)
2. http://blogs.reuters.com/bethany-mclean/2013/08/20/getting-g...
3. http://www.npr.org/2015/03/24/395119065/as-economy-rebounds-...
4. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/04/21/401259676/who-o...
In places where housing is plentiful and there is competition you do every once in a while see "rent to own" terms where part of your rent payments can be credited towards a purchase, and typically the renter will need to buy an option to purchase up front.
Unfortunately, housing supply would have to skyrocket in order for landlords to be desperate enough to have to use your idea to lure tenants.
In demand places are in demand for a reason. San Francisco has palatable weather year round. Detroit gets pretty damn cold for about half the year.
Would you get some people moving to lower tier places for this? Probably. Would it be enough to actually have an effect on things? Probably not.
I live in an apartment owned by one of the big publicly traded trusts, and have amused myself in the past by calculating how many shares I'd have to buy for the dividends to cover my rent. On balance there are other ways I'd rather invest my money though.
"Apply HN: reinvent ownership" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11454138
I'm more than willing to work on it.
Another would be keeping people 'in the system' long-term, otherwise it doesn't really work (if the original landlord tires of it, what stops them from 'just reverting' to the old system?)
It's an interesting idea, but it'd be hard to test out.
There are multitudes of banks with different policies. There are multitudes of other ways to get capital. In the D community, we used Kickstarter to fund the first D conference, for example.
> what stops them
That's what contracts are for. Contracts are a central feature of a free market.
So, you don't think that it's a hurdle that your rent has to be split 20% to the previous tenant, 10% to the tenant before that, 15% to the tenant before that, 8% to the tenant before that, 33% to the tenant before that, and 20% to the tenant before that? Who is doing the legwork in tracking these tenants down? What happens when the combined 'equity' goes over 100%? When does the landlord bug out? Who wants to keep tabs on their 8% equity of a rental home that they occupied for a year five years ago, along with paying 8% of the upkeep for any repairs or administrative work? Who wants to chase up all the previous tenants and get them to cough up the money? How much time does that person waste if even one previous tenant won't pay (or can't)? If the original owner wants to sell the property, what happens to the tenants with equity? What if they have more equity than the original owner, can they force the owner not to sell? Can they force the owner to a reserve price? Does a new tenant have to make a contract with the owner and all previous tenants? Is there a new kind of corporate body to handle this new form of renting? Are the contracts around this new way of renting going to be easy enough for the general public to understand, or are they going to provide plenty of loopholes for sharks to operate?
I think that's enough to classify as 'a hurdle', and people need to be in the system long-term and at scale to figure out how it's going to work well. Hand-waving that problem away with "meh, contracts" doesn't solve the long-term issues.
We are talking about the United States, not a free market. In the United States, the stated policy of the central bank (hint: free markets have no central banks that control interest rates and pick winners and losers) for the last 8 years is to inflate housing prices. The FED and the big banks still have trillions of dollars of worthless derivatives on their books that they have not "marked to market" because they are derived from mortgages on homes that are underwater. The FED has taken over 5 trillion dollars onto its balance sheet in the last 8 years in order to artificially inflate housing prices (not including off-balance sheet loans, guarantees, and other tangible efforts taken to prop up banks and home prices).
This is the opposite in a free market. In a free market, housing prices would plummet with demand and credit availability, and would reach an equilibrium with income. This is impossible in our centrally controlled economy that runs on debt service in which even a small bump in interest rates or a small drop in assets prices will cause the whole scheme to fall apart.
Edit: The Downvotes without replies are somewhat amusing. I can't decide if its out of ignorance of the financial system on the part of those who read the hacker news, or cognitive dissonance. I suspect a mix of both. I welcome anyone who thinks any of the above is inaccurate to chime in.
As far as downvotes go, HN leans left, that is not news, any conservative or libertarian views will collect the usual down votes. Strangely it happens in bunches too.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/ambs/ambs_faq.html
>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to purchase additional MBS and longer-term Treasury securities (see http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.h... for the most recent FOMC statement). The FOMC also directed the Desk to maintain its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The FOMC noted that these actions should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
https://www.justlanded.com/english/Sweden/Sweden-Guide/Prope...
You could claim that it's not a free market with the set of freedoms or policies that you'd like to have implemented, but to claim that the US is not a free market just because the Fed has taken some action seems like a fallacy to me. (BTW I agree with you in questioning the wisdom of that particular set of Fed actions..)
Most cities in the US have all kinds of zoning regulations that prevent cities from reaching higher population densities: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11918230. For example, there are quite a few livable cities in the world supporting > 15,000 per sq km, most cities in the US hardly reach half that amount.
This is definitely not a free market phenomenon; I am pretty sure that in a free market (or even a market with rationally determined, not NIMBY based regulations), there would be increases in population density of major cities in the US.
It seems like it'd be a better idea to continue paying rent and just buy some shares in an REIT with the difference in cost with rent and rent+shares. And let's be clear: You would pay higher rent in your scheme, so said difference is nonzero.
(Tax incentives skew these incentives towards ownership.)
Most of the gains from active REI don't come from RE appreciation (which generally tracks the inflation rate nationally). The growth from REI comes from using a TON of leverage to purchase the assets (ie a mortgage) then getting someone else to build your equity for you (the renter).
Additionally real estate investors pursue extremely favorable deals, generally where the seller is motivated to use their built up equity to sell at a significant discount to what the remaining cost of their mortgage is. These distressed sellers are usually going through a divorce or potential bankruptcy (where getting a small amount of their equity value back is preferable to losing everything and destroying their credit via bankruptcy).
As you alluded to, this of course relates to real estate as a business. Not to standard home ownership (where you buy a property because you want it as a home, not because it is a good business investment).
Lease to buy is a thing, more or less as you describe. However, it removes liquidity for both the buyer and seller (buyer cannot exit easily, seller cannot exit easily). As a result, mortgages are more popular and more-or-less functional identical.
From what I've researched about Lease-to-buy, it is a strategy of charging higher rent.
The current Price-to-Rent ratio in SF is 45.88. So lets say your willing to pay an extra 50% of your rent to gain equity you would end up gaining about 1.1% of the units equity per year at market rates. This is somewhat unfair because SF has one of the highest price/rent ratios but 50% increase in rent is also very large.
With an average tenancy around 2 years most people are going to own extremely little equity while the property accrues all sorts of minority owners which would be nontrivial to manage.
The only real benefit I can think of is it provides some insulation against cost of housing increases but at the downside of exposing you to housing price decreases and trading cash for an extremely illiquid asset. Who is going to want to buy 2% of a house/apartment?
"An innovative approach applied by some banks for home loans, called Musharaka al-Mutanaqisa, allows for a floating rate in the form of rental. The bank and borrower form a partnership entity, both providing capital at an agreed percentage to purchase the property. The partnership entity then rents out the property to the borrower and charges rent. The bank and the borrower will then share the proceeds from this rent based on the current equity share of the partnership."
> What if we lived in world where real estate was not an illiquid investment, with extremely high barriers to entry?
It's not, about 70% of all people (in the U.S. at least) "own" or are scheduled to own their home. There's not an enormous barrier to buying property, you can even finance 100% of the property value in various ways so very little money is even required up front.
> What if the monies taken in rent actually accrued equity by some schedule?
This is basically how mortgages work. In general, some of the money you pay goes to the title holder to pay interest on the loan...this is effectively like rent except better, since you get some tax benefits for it. The difference goes towards buying the loan principle, which is effectively buying you equity in the property. Once the principle is paid off, you own all of the equity in the property.
> What if you could move at any point without losing your equity?
You can, you sell the property -- this is exactly how it works. The new owners effectively pay off your loan in one lump sum, you get pretty much the portion of the principle you paid off as equity, the organization providing your loan gets paid the difference. When you buy a new home, you can use the equity towards buying the new house so you have to finance less. In effect you move around your equity as you move around your house ownership. If you manage things well (it's up to you) at some point, you will own 100% of the equity in the property, in which case you will become the title holder.
Selling/buying a home is a bit more complicated than waiting for a lease to end and moving to a new rental property, but not by much -- it mostly just takes a bit of patience.
Let's look at your idea:
> Crazy ideas, I know ... but via example:
>1. developer builds a house, has 100% equity.
This is exactly what happens
>2. new tenant moves in and starts paying "rent", building up equity.
This is sorta what happens. When a person goes to "buy" a house, they typically engage a bank or some other finance organization who buys the home from the developer and then you pay your "rent" to the financial institution instead of the developer.
This enables the developer to turn over inventory quickly and continue building more houses rather than having inventory locked up for decades.
> 3. Costs for repairs and maintenance have to be paid per your equity percentage (so if I've accrued 20% equity, I have to pay 20% of the plumber's bill while I'm living there).
That's an interesting idea. Not how it really works of course, but an idea of shared ownership. To riff on this, if you default on your loan and the bank reclaims the property, they assume 100% of the maintenance costs. You'd need to control for people who want Cadillac everything throughout their house: Spanish tiles on the roof, gold plated pipes, top of the line appliances, etc.
> 4. When the tenant inevitably moves, they take their 20% equity, and are paid 20% of the next tenant's rent payments, while still paying 20% of maintenance costs ... this % of course decreases as the new tenant makes more payments.
I'm not sure I follow, if they take their 20% equity (to put into the next property) they wouldn't be entitled to receive any rent from the next tenant.
But if if a previous tenant leaves their equity with the property it sounds like then a person might end up with percentage ownership of tons of properties if they move around a lot.
Effectively your scheme describes that every property operates like a business with shareholders. Except the current executive of the property is whoever happens to move in. So you might end up holding equity in a property that somebody else burns down to the ground or uses it as a meth lab. But you would have no rights or controls over how the new tenant uses the property.
Furthermore, distribution of rents and collections and management of payments implies that there is a person who handles the overhead and management of the property, greatly depreciating the value of the property.
Not saying this is all terrible, but as an idea it needs some work. In the least it would greatly inflate the property management industry without providing much benefit to owners/tenants. In the worst it would require an entire rethinking of tenant/owner rights to use a property.
> I'm not sure I follow, if they take their 20% equity (to put into the next property) they wouldn't be entitled to receive any rent from the next tenant.
I think maybe I wasn't as clear as I could have been ... what I mean is 20% ownership here. So when they "leave", they're not removing that value from that property. They maintain ownership of that "20%", and reap the rewards until their share is ultimately bought out and dwindles to zero.
The corollary to that, is that they wouldn't have to take the value in order to finance their next tenancy ... if they could find another place to enter into the same kind of agreement, they simply move in and start paying there.
However, unfortunately in a scheme like this, the tenant would have to have 150k in the first place. I'm looking to find ways to lower barriers to entry so that one doesn't have to be rich.
The example I know the most about is:
Rents are up because tenants can afford to pay the rate to live there - ask any landlord if they want to charge more, or ask any tenant if they want to pay less. Both parties end up settling in equilibrium.
The price of rent is what the market can currently bear.
In your plan there are always those that will settle for less yield, or will take on a larger risk, but it has to be out of free will, not mandated by law
That can go OK, but the wishes of you and the developer may not align perfectly (the developer may want to spend $20,000 on improvements, to be split 50-50 between him and you, but at the movement you have only $5,000)
That gets worse once you move out. You effectively become a landlord, and your goals may no longer align with both those of the developer and the new renter.
If you want to use hire purchase for the second, third, etc. renters, too, things would get complicated fast. Say, there's a maintenance job of $10,000 to do. The second tenant doesn't have the money, the third one died a week ago, the fifth one married and divorced, the seventh one wants to spend money on other improvements, etc. Now try to get all owners to give permission to spend any money.
If you want to own something, I think it is easier to just buy one property or to invest in a developer that builds properties.
How is it better for them to be forced to put money into that residence rather than in a savings account that'll go toward the residence they actually want to buy?
A) 0% down-payment mortgage
B) where you can stop making payments at any time, and get to keep your equity in the house anyway
The above obviously sounds like a sweet deal for the buyer, but put yourself in the shoes of a developer/home-owner/bank: Why would you agree to a deal like that? Why not just sell the house to someone who is willing to commit to a traditional mortgage and buy it outright? You will only agree to the above terms if the buyer is offering you significantly more money. But as a buyer, are you willing to pay significantly more money than you would have to pay under a traditional mortgage?
It sounds like what you really want is:
A) The flexibility and mobility that comes with renting
B) The ability to invest in real-estate in an incremental and liquid manner
There is already a solution that accomplishes both of the above! Just continue renting your house, and invest the rest of your money into REITs. This way, you get all the flexibility and mobility of renting, together with the incremental and liquid nature of REIT investments.
If the reason you're averse to the above, is that you don't want to "throw your money away in rent," that's a false misconception. When you buy a house and make mortgage payments, the fact that you get to "live in the house for free" is already baked into the price of the house. This is why mortgage payments (after amortizing the down-payment) is virtually always higher than renting the same house. Regardless of whether you choose to rent or buy, you're still "throwing away" the same amount of money regardless.
Is what you suggested capable of "working"? Sure. Any arrangement can be made to work, with the appropriate numbers needed to attract a counter-party. But is it going to generate anything of value beyond what we currently have? I doubt it. If you want flexible living arrangements, rent a house. If you want to own real estate, buy REITs. If your complaint with this suggestion is that rent is too high and REITs are too expensive, there's no alternative business arrangement which will solve that problem.
https://medium.com/@sanchitgupta/investing-in-real-estate-7d...
The endless payments for no equity to lease a thing which was paid for on a one-time basis is my biggest issue with private property ownership. There's no way in my mind to make it a fair system without some aspect of slowly gaining even partial ownership.
Rent - or, rather, the inflation of real estate value in cities - is entirely about transferring money out of the productive part of society. If you make your living with "education" or "skills", you're on the losing end of it.
"Debased" in this context doesn't make any sense; it really only makes sense in commodity or representational currencies, not fiat money.
If you mean "devalued", then you really should say that.
But I'm not sure how the logic works, anyway, unless you assume that those without "real" assets also tend to have a constant and positive wealth of fiat currency, such that decline in fiat currency value has the same effect on their net wealth.
I really think there is, at most, a coincidence or possibly common cause here rather than the causal link you suggeset, which I don't see any clear rationale or evidence for.
How closely have you looked at those $40K houses? I've seen a handful of sub-$100K smaller houses listed in my region, but they're wrecks; they'd need a massive amount of work to get anywhere near the comfort and safety level of a modern, well-maintained house. They're basically the house equivalent of buying a $500 car.
Sure, but a $40k house will need anywhere from $90k to $160k worth of additional repairs to be safe to inhabit.
And since that cost isn't in the equity, most people in most areas can't qualify to finance that. (A $200k mortgage is not identical to a $40k mortgage and $160k reno loan).
> 1000 sq ft houses that sell for $40k > because nobody wants a house that small
a 1000sqft house in Palo Alto would sell for >$400K just for the land. It would be a "teardowns", and a $40 house+lot would be converted to a $300k 2600 sqft houses -- quite reasonable, so the explanation lies elsewhere (access to employment, entertainment, educations?)
It hurts families. But it also makes the economy less competitive. For example. It is hard to bring any manufacturing when you have to pay higher salaries that are barely high enough to pay rent.
Not only that. Because housing costs are high, people have less available income. They spend less money in other services like entertainment, dining out, etc.
So, it is a loose-loose. I don't even know if anyone wins. May be when you sell your house at the end of your life you win. /s
For Pittsburgh, a $29k takehome is roughly $40-45k a year. That is in the $20/hr range. I know at one point, my salary was $51k/year and I was brining home $36-37k annually. I was working a standard office job that was not particularly exciting, but all I needed was to have a bachelors degree. If you have one adult working full time and another part time for an extra ~15k a year, you can live relatively comfortably in Pittsburgh, and I am assuming other medium sized cities in the Midwest.
The big costal cities (SF, NYC, LA, DC) do make it difficult to own housing, but almost every country has cities where it is more expensive to live.
Median house sqft has increased - how do the numbers look if we compare not just median rent, but median rent per sqft?
Support your local YITBY group.