Airbnb Is Said to Be Seeking Funding Valuing It at $30B
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
It's hard to see why the savviest long term strategy isn't just to keep booking billions of dollars worth of lodging bookings, keep their cut, and use it to grow the company.
The last time I saw financing in the tech industry seem so out of step with basic economics was 2001. Not for startups in general necessarily, but for these super-giants like Airbnb and Uber something seems really wrong.
When exactly do they have to start acting like normal boring businesses that are supposed to be good at something, and then make their money doing that thing?
Imagine if Apple announced today it was "taking on funding to raise its valuation to $800 billion." What a thought!
Oh yeah, and because they wouldn't be worth $30 billion if they were publicly traded. They're raising money far beyond what their business is going to be worth at any point in the next five years based on comparables to either Priceline or Expedia.
Indeed. And therin lie the seeds of a problem that could literally destroy the company, or at least incinerate the stake of the current founders and major shareholders. Hence the question.
For employees in the tech sector, this misalignment of incentives is one of the ugliest lessons to learn.
The second is that businesses face a sudden jump in their need for capital as they shift focus to their global operations.
Is there an age limit to being called a startup? Is there a valuation limit? Revenue limit?
I guess the line used to be when a company went public, but that's not really cool anymore.
Maybe the new definition of a unicorn should be a private company that is profitable and requires no outside funding?
This has become a problem lately with companies remaining private longer. You could consider it a start-up because it still aims to grow unprofitably by relying on private capital
> Maybe the new definition of a unicorn should be a private company that is profitable and requires no outside funding?
You could call it a grown up unicorn
Start-up means getting started, starting up something, early into the formation, a young entity, etc. To claim a massive 40 year old business - with many old products - can be a start-up, would be to intentionally obfuscate the historical use of the term. There's no good reason to declare that Apple was a start-up when it was growing fast, it makes no sense. What would be the purpose of contorting the language for that? It's a: "fast growing company," that's all the description that's necessary for any older business that grows quickly.
It makes no sense, and is largely the way it is for PR reasons.
I've always just used "startup" to mean a private company that hasn't exited yet. You just have to qualify this futher. So Uber, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, etc. are all categorized as "large pre-IPO startups."
For example, a study put forth by housing advocacy groups recently identified over 8,000 "impact listings" in NYC alone, which are essentially entire apartments being operated on a close to full-time basis. [1]. Certainly these groups are biased, but their methodology for finding full-time listings looks sound. I'll do a little quick math to consider the revenue and fees Airbnb may be collecting from those:
200 days a year rented (total guess on my part) * $120 (somewhat less than the average shown for a one night stay) * 8000 (full-time listings) = $192M total revenue
Or maybe around $19M in total fees collected from both hosts and guests. Granted, I could be way off here, but I think it shows how much money is potentially at stake in these listings that, if the current legislation on Cuomo's desk passes, could go away nearly overnight.
My point is that these new regulations appear to represent a substantial risk to Airbnb's continued growth. It makes me wonder how much this new raise might be earmarked for fighting cities on regulations and conducting an aggressive PR campaign to sway public opinion in their favor.
1. http://www.sharebetter.org/story/housing-report-short-changi...
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/29/technology/airbnb-sues-san...
Hilton Worldwide, 160k employees, 11.3b revenue, 4660 properties, 21b market cap
Hyatt, 97k employees, 4.4b revenue, ~600 properties, 5b market cap
My guess is they have their valuation about right, assuming they continue to grow for the next 3 or 4 years
edit: I'm also thinking of the non existent switching costs for customers.
I guess it works for credit card companies
I've found that if you are looking for just a private room, you can get a deal. But then you are also in a stranger's house, which as a 30-something I'm not always that comfortable with. When I travel with my wife, it's not even an option.
When I look at entire home/apt listings, the prices are often very comparable to nearby hotels, and often I can get a cheaper hotel using an "opaque" service like Hotwire or Priceline. As between the two, I'd much rather stay in a hotel, since they are set up for travelers and I can get whatever extra towels, amenities, etc. that might be missing from an AirBnb.
AirBnBs are absolutely more unique than hotel rooms, but that isn't always a good thing. I've had too many late nights sat outside a property waiting for the owner to turn up, too many broken fixtures (including heating) with no-one to repair.
And (as the other poster mentioned) I've been very surprised to find out that these days AirBnB rates for "whole property" aren't even competitive with hotel rooms, especially when you factor in the "cleaning fee" and other such spurious fees that seem designed to make it difficult for you to calculate a total easily.
I see this valuation being low in a few years. Instead, of thinking of them as a hotel chain (or something similar), we should think of then as an insurance and travel company
Not really much of a surprise as you're a young, white male working and living in the SF bubble.
We detached this comment from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11997359 and marked it off-topic.