Reflections on the Shock of Brexit

"Alexander Hamilton believed in America but not in Americans when he said in a June 1788 speech defending the ratification of the U.S. Constitution: 'That a pure democracy if it were practicable would be the most perfect government. Experience has proved that no position is more false than this. The ancient democracies in which the people themselves deliberated never possessed one good feature of government. Their very character was tyranny; their figure, deformity.'"

1. HSBC bank regularly has board meetings debating to move to Hong Kong. This will probably tip the balance.

2. Most banks want to cut staff. For example in 2013 BARCLAYS did 50bn a year on 130k headcount but google did same 50bn on 40k people. Most banks think they can lose 1-2/3rds of their staff, and this is a once in a lifetime opportunity

Now, if my pessimism is right, suddenly London finance sector has 10s of thousands looking for work. The frothy housing market will tank with the dock lands hit hard but generally the unsustainable prices heading south. The knock on effects to the commuter belt will be equally hard. I can imagine being close to negative equity myself.

It's hyper local, but it's a real fear.

the vote is best seen as a protest vote driven by three emotional issues

1. Fear of immigration 2. Fear of economic dislocation 3. Frustration at being out of political decision making

Comments: All of the above are common threads in right wing and centre right politics across the western world. From Trump to Greece there is a strong right wing, older, lower educated rump of around 15% who are the economic losers in the past couple of decades amazing debt field growth that has lifted hundreds of millions out of absolute poverty (a Good Thing)

But these three themes (the New Right) are not intellectually driven. They are weirdly fact free zones.

For example, the strongest Leave votes in the UK come from area with minimal immigration. Just as no Mexican ever stole a Pennsylvania Coal Miners job, Immigrants in the UK are not taking jobs from workers in Hull - because there are no bloody jobs in Hull.

2. Economic dislocation is a problem - London is a black hole pulling jobs, finance, young people, from everywhere else in the country to itself. House prices reflect this - houses can be bought for a few tens of thousands just a few hours drive from central Londons million pound pads.

Nothing about this makes sense - our economic future is a concern whatever we do with Europe, and it's just more dislocated in the UK.

The problem is fixing it. Our economy is mostly services now - finance being a ridiculous 10-15 % of GDP. And we are not competing when selling real goods with Germany or others.

Fixing that is a huge industrial policy issue and I don't see people taking it on.

As for the last - well An amazing BBC clip (TBC) shows a voter who voted to leave, seeming genuinely shocked at the result saying "but I thought my vote did not matter".

Turns out people feel disconnected from a political process that actually is working. When it is used. The problem is politicians and electoral rules clouding the direct levers.

So rant slowly ending - we have had a massive protest vote "against the establishment" - which is driven by fears that turn out not to be based on facts, that will result in election of a person who is just as establishment (Boris Johnson was in the same posh school / university class as Cameron. It's not a diversity win here)

My feeling is democracy has stopped being served by five yearly elections - that the real issues are much more local, and we need to find ways of forcing "evidence based politics" and more direct local action.

Sadly that can be the same sound bite as "take back our sovereignty"