Possibly, although I wouldn't rush it. Worth seeing which countries will remain in the EU by the time UK finalises the exit.
Fascinating time to be alive.
Doubtful: As long as France and Germany are on board, the EU will survive in some fashion.
The comment[1] of German economist Max Otte[2] regarding the British vote? Good riddance, now we can stop accomodating UK sensibilities. Also remember, when the UK wanted to join the EEC? De Gaulle sent them packing twice...
[1] http://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/otte-interview-zu-brexit...
I would go further than that, while you are absolutely right, long before we reach that point we have the "second core" of Belgium, Italy and Spain, none of which are actually leaving anytime soon. Can add Portugal, Austria and Luxembourg as a "sure takers" third wave.
[1] http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_415_en.p...
I disagree. The UK was the third largest net contributor to the EU, and one of only ~10 member states that have historically made positive net contributions.
Its influence and role as a net importer from the EU will see it win a relatively favorable exit, including access to the single market.
The UK exit, in addition to the financial impact on the EU, will inspire many other member states on the verge of leaving to do the same.
The EU is already on thin ice, and the UK voting to leave may have just been the straw that broke the camel's back.
I disagree, UK will not have an easy exit exactly for the reason you say. It will make leaving an easy thing.
And you only see the economical part, UK has been seen in the rest of the EU as an obstacle to the EU and closer to USA than UE.
Right now, they don't have so much sympathies apart from some far right parties. And I wouldn't like to be friend with them
To keep things in perspective, the UK's contributions amounted to 10.7% of the general budget in the period 2007-2013.
All of them? The only ones asking a referendum are two far right parties in Holland and France
Even in their "great swipe" of 2014, they got 14 mayors total. In a country counting roughly 36 000 mayors (yes, I know ...).
The FN is actually very very weak, it keeps being seen doing huge jump forwards in numbers but that's mostly because the others are being very dumb and for the FN a single new member of parliament is a 50% jump ahead, which makes for a good headline.
The FN biggest strength is actually the media attention they get and how it drives them forward, there was a study about that showing they were te party being given the most media attention and it giving them the biggest result boost (despite "we are ignored by the media" being on their main card, like all populist parties)